Posted on 03/21/2004 12:43:04 PM PST by Destro
Al-Qaeda: the history theory
by our Security and Defence editor Hans de Vreij, 17 March 2004
The battle of Poitiers in 732, Spain 1492, Vienna 1693 and Turkey 1917. These combinations of years and places most probably mean little or nothing at all to the average Westerner in 2004. Yet the events to which they refer are all significant moments in the history of two religions: Islam and Christianity.
In 732, Christian forces engaged in battle near the French town of Poitiers with a Muslim army which had managed to advance some considerable way across the continent. The Muslim forces were defeated.
Prior to 1492, southern Spain – Andalusia and Granada – had been an important Islamic stronghold inside Europe. In that year, however, the Muslims were driven from Spain completely by Catholic forces.
In 1693, a decisive battle was fought and won outside the gates of Vienna against Muslim forces which had left Turkey, crossed the Balkans, and were marching across Europe. And 1917 saw Turkey's – Islamic – Ottoman Empire crumble and then collapse following its defeat by the allied powers – chief among them Great Britain and France – during the First World War.
History´s importance to al-Qaeda
According to some academic researchers, these events from history play a very significant role in the thought processes of the al-Qaeda terrorist network and related radical Islamic groups.
As these specialists see it, the idea of wreaking revenge for past defeats and humiliations is a key goal for such groups, alongside more contemporary motivations such as the desire to wage war against the "Western" and "Christian" occupation of Iraq or against those who launched attacks on the Taliban and al-Qaeda in Afghanistan.
Israeli security expert Giora Shamis believes Osama bin Laden's so-called "fatwas" and the thousands of documents placed on the Internet by al-Qaeda and similar groups even provide a basis to draw up a list of likely "historical targets" for attacks in or close to Europe. Turkey heads that list, followed by Spain. The next target could be Rome – the centre of power of Roman Catholicism – followed by Vienna, where al-Qaeda might attempt to avenge the aforementioned defeat of 1693.
Clues on the Web
According to Mr Shamis "Only now is the intelligence community beginning to search the Internet thoroughly for relevant information. Much has already been said there, quite openly." He adds that: "Curiously enough, the attacks in Madrid had already been announced in advance on the Web. A researcher at Norway's FFI defence institute came across the relevant document in December last year, but did nothing with the information."
Hans Jansen, a Dutch expert on the Arab World and Islam, also stresses that, in addition to the more immediate issues on which al-Qaeda focuses, history is a key factor in its philosophy. Asked about the possibility of Rome being a future target, he replies: "I can well imagine that being the case because there are certain statements – attributed to the Prophet Mohammed, who died in the year 632 AD – in which the speaker says that Rome will fall. The men who assassinated Egyptian President Anwar al-Sadat in 1981 also spoke of Rome being conquered in the name of Islam".
A dream of total victory
"There are certainly a number of Muslims who remember very clearly that the Muslim advance into Europe [was] stopped in 1693 at the gates of Vienna", says Hans Jansen, who sees al-Qaeda as acting out "a fantasy, a romantic dream of total victory." He believes they want to see Islam triumph over and destroy the West, thus proving its ultimate superiority. While this is not what all Muslims want at all, Mr Jansen says it is the dream of some and: "that makes things very difficult because it renders it more or less impossible to predict what kind of action that dream will result in next."
He also says it is difficult to draw a clear line between the contemporary causes – such as Iraq and Afghanistan – and the historical motives that prompt al-Qaeda's attacks. "The kind of intervention we've seen in Iraq has the effect of making some people dream that dream even harder. But the main aim is a kind of doomsday vision in which Islam will be triumphant - and the West stands in the way of that triumph becoming reality."
The problem will not go away
According to Hans Jansen, the possible resolution of current political problems in the Middle East will not mean an end to attacks by radical Islamic groups.
"I don't think that if, for example, the question of Israel and the Palestinians were to be resolved or after democratic elections have been held in Iraq, that those who have this vision will then stop dreaming of destroying the ‘anti-Islamic' world. This is a problem we are going to have to live with for some time to come."
Less risk to the Netherlands?
On a local note, Hans Jansen believes the Netherlands is at less risk of being the target of attacks compared to other European nations - that is if the only basis one takes is that of the historical motive theory.
"The Ottoman Empire was an important ally of the Netherlands during the Eighty Years' War against Spain [which once ruled the Netherlands and what is now Belgium] and was also the first "country" to officially recognise the Netherlands as an independent nation."
Sicilian legend has it that the Mafia started out as a resistence organization against the Muslim occupation
It's also an island country without much of an economy or military. All air and sea traffic could be interdicted with a few US frigates
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