For ambitious Hillary Clinton, it's now or never (Morris)

charlotte observer ^ | 3/18/04

[knak]

It's unlikely she'll ever be president unless she's on the ticket in 2004

DICK MORRIS

Cagle

If Sen. John Kerry beats President Bush and Sen. Hillary Clinton is not on the Democratic ticket as a vice presidential candidate, she will probably never be president of the United States.

This cold, hard fact is staring the Clintons in the face as they assess the best way to inaugurate a new Clinton presidency.

Consider the options and their historic contexts: If Kerry wins in 2004, he will very likely seek re-election. The last time a president served four years and didn't try to succeed himself was back in 1880 and the president was Rutherford B. Hayes.

So, unless Hillary wants to try to mount the first successful challenge to a presidential re-nomination since Gene McCarthy forced Lyndon Johnson into retirement in 1968, she will have to sit out the 2008 contest.

Should Kerry be re-elected, his vice president will probably be the Democratic candidate in 2012. All five times, since 1960, that a vice president sought the nomination for president after his party controlled the White House for at least two terms, he has gotten it (Richard Nixon in 1960, Hubert Humphrey in 1968, Gerald Ford in 1976, George H.W. Bush in 1980, Al Gore in 2000). That means that Hillary would be out in the cold until at least 2016 and, if the Democrat won and was re-elected, until 2020. She'll be 73 by then.

Even if Kerry is elected and loses a bid for a second term, his vice president would still be the favorite in 2012. Twice, since 1960, a man who served as vice president has come back in a subsequent year to win his party's nomination -- Nixon in 1968 and Walter Mondale in 1984. Humphrey failed to get the nod in 1972, but he had already run and lost four years before. Dan Quayle failed also, but he was, well, Quayle.

If Bush is re-elected, Hillary doesn't need to have been on Kerry's ticket. She can still prevail in 2008 over Kerry's defeated vice presidential nominee. After all, neither Ed Muskie in 1972, Bob Dole in 1996 nor Joe Lieberman in 2004 was able to convert a losing bid for vice president into a successful race for president (two of the three weren't even nominated).

But if Kerry wins and another person is vice president, how will Hillary keep fresh until 2012? How will she do it in the Senate, while all the Democratic action is at the other end of Pennsylvania Avenue? And how will she compete with a sitting vice president who has all the resources of the White House at his disposal and eight years to build up his momentum?

She can't, and she won't. So what should she do? If Kerry is anywhere close to Bush at convention time, she'd better go for the second spot. A close defeat wouldn't hurt her and, if Kerry wins, it will be her only way to become the second President Clinton.

And don't kid yourself; the decision is Hillary's to make. The Clintons still control the Democratic Party. If Hillary wants to run for vice president, Kerry has to go along. For him to spurn the former first lady would be to cause a schism in the party. He'll be pulling knives out of his back for the entire race.

In any case, it is in Kerry's interest to ensure that the Clintons will work for him and not undermine his candidacy. The logic of their need for a Bush re-election to assure a Hillary presidency is just too compelling. Kerry needs to put Hillary on his ticket as a kind of hostage to be certain of the Clintons' strong and full support. There are just too many ways that the Clintons can sabotage his candidacy without seeming to be doing so. (For example, Bill can publish his memoirs in September or October of 2004 and create a massive distraction that would force Kerry off center stage).

Kerry needs Hillary on the ticket. A vice presidential candidacy by her would turn his campaign into a crusade and would energize her supporters to a fever pitch. It would summon all the good memories of the Clinton prosperity without the bad reminders of Monica, et al. But, most of all, Kerry cannot afford to leave the Clintons sulking, like Achilles, in their tent. Otherwise, Troy will go Republican.

[knak]

who thinks she'll get on the ticket with effin?

[knak]

Hillary Clinton Sets April 3 Westport Fundraiser

[Kiss Me Hardy]

Prediction: Very soon, before the convention, a deluge of dirt will suddenly drop on the Heinz gigolo and he is forced to renounce the nomination.

Guess who steps up to the plate -- if she thinks Bush is beatable by that stage.

[Thane_Banquo]

I probably wouldn't think this about anyone else, but would the Clintons get Hillary on the ticket, and if Kerry wins, plot an assassination?

I hope he never wins or gets assassinated, but I wouldn't put it past them.

[knak]

my husband told me the same thing a week ago

[ARCADIA]

Kerry needs her like a drowning man needs a two ton anchor.

[aposiopetic]

The last time a president served four years and didn't try to succeed himself was back in 1880 and the president was Rutherford B. Hayes.

Well, LBJ didn't try for very long in 1968, either.

[wattsup]

If Kerry puts hitlery on the ticket he will be signing his own death warrant if, for some highly remote chance, he wins.

[Cicero]

I think everything is up in the air. Kerry is a much worse candidate than Dean, as is becoming more and more evident all the time. He may not make it to the convention.

Hillary could accept the VP spot, or she could push Kerry aside by getting the media to publicize all the dirt they would otherwise cover up, leaving the presidential spot open for hillary.

It looks right now as if Bush will win. But it's a long time to November. Through no fault of Bush's, the economy is still highly vulnerable. The market could crash, the dollar could crash, the Japanese could start investing in gold, the Chinese could put an oar in, anything could happen. Bush has done the right thing economically, but he inherited a total mess from clinton and his predecessors. It may hold together until November or it may not.

Also you can't rule out the way that people whom the clintons find inconvenient have had of dying over the years--hundreds of them. In other words, it's anybody's ball game right up to the election.

[ThePythonicCow]

The Title "For ambitious Hillary Clinton, it's now or never" doesn't fit the article.

Morris puts forth the position that if Kerry wins, Hitlary must be on the ticker. It's not a case of now or never. It's a case of now or Kerry loses.

I'm sure that if all four of Bill, Hill, Kerry (his own worst enemy) and W work together on it, Kerry can be sure to lose. Seems like they are already off to a good start on just this scenario.

[squidly]

I don't know what Morris has been putting in his coffee this week. Hillary can bide her time 'til '08 just fine, she doesn't need to join up with a candidate who is clearly a losing proposition.

[TomGuy]

the decision is Hillary's to make. The Clintons still control the Democratic Party. If Hillary wants to run for vice president, Kerry has to go along. For him to spurn the former first lady would be to cause a schism in the party. He'll be pulling knives out of his back for the entire race.

Yeh. And the Clinton machine has already exercised its power over Kerry and the Democratic Party. When Kerry was clearning going to get the delegates needed for nomination, he had previous said he would dump Terry McAuliffe. The Clintons said Terry would stay. Terry is still there. Mark one up for the Clintons over Kerry.

[1066AD]

If Kerry wins in 2004, he will very likely seek re-election

As long as his health holds up.

[speekinout]

Kerry does have problems that only hil can overcome. He doesn't stand for anything. She can make him look like the second coming of billy. And he does have an "intern problem". She can make that go away.

I don't think anyone expects Kerry to win in 2004. He might if hil runs with him. I'm not sure that she wants a Dem to win. Controlling the party for another 4 years until she is ready to run might suit her most.

[alwaysconservative]

I'm sorry, but Morris is starting to sound a little desperate in his predictions lately. This is yet another ill-disguised call to arms by Morris to put Shrillary on the ticket. Who knows, maybe the Dims will listen, put her on the ticket, and the sleeping giant of Republicans and conservatives will rise up and smash that plan once and for all.

[ASA Vet]

Well, LBJ didn't try for very long in 1968, either

I was in a club in Bangkok when one of the guys brought in a
Bangkok Post EXTRA edition announcing LBJ was not running.
The date was April 1 so of course we didn't believe it and thought he'd had
a fake paper printed up.

[ASA Vet]

Two great minds were discussing this today ping.

[aposiopetic]

The date was April 1 so of course we didn't believe it and thought he'd had a fake paper printed up.

What a great story! Truth is so often stranger than fiction.

[xzins]

I do.

I'm not opposed to the idea that she will open her FBI file databank and give stuff to the pubbies between now and convention, SO THAT she gets to run this time around.

[TomGuy]

This thought just crossed my mind and scared even me....

Kerry with HClinton as VP. They get elected. She presumptively becomes the Co-President, allowing Kerry to be out front while she operates behind the scenes.

Eight years later, even though she has been the actual power behind the throne, she runs on her own for another 8 years.

16 years of unimpeded power in her hands.