STRATFOR: Geopolitical Diary: Monday, March 15, 2004

STRATFOR ^ | March 15, 2004 0001 GMT

[Axion]

The opposition Spanish Socialist Party has defeated the ruling Popular Party. This was not what the polls predicted would happen a week ago, but there has been an obvious and important intervening event. It is now clear why the Spanish government was adamant that the Madrid train bombers on March 11 were likely to have been ETA Basque separatists. The public response to the growing perception that this was an Islamist attack was to blame the government for the attack, arguing that it would not have happened if the government had not sided with the United States in Iraq.

We think it extremely likely that the attackers will turn out to be Islamists linked in some way to al Qaeda. If this is so, then they have discovered the fault line in the American alliance system. Allies are prepared to stand with the United States, even if the public is generally opposed. They can survive that dissatisfaction. If, however, the result of this alliance is massive civilian casualties, the equation shifts and the government runs into much more trouble. It was not an accident that this bombing occurred just before the Spanish elections.

Al Qaeda faces a general problem. It has failed to generate any Islamic rising, the United States is gaining control of the situation in Iraq and most Islamic countries have decided to work with the Americans. The United States is preparing the final assault in Pakistan. Al Qaeda must not only re-establish its credibility, but also reaffirm its very existence. It must show the Islamic world that the war is not over. In order to do that, it must do more than issue communiqués. It must take action.

Spain was, we believe, a response to the situation in which al Qaeda finds itself. We find it particularly noteworthy that the attacks were not carried out by suicide bombers, but were detonated at a distance. That means that the attackers have survived. It also means that they are in a position to carry out further attacks. If al Qaeda switches away from a suicide bombing model to a more conventional model, it has the ability to sustain operations with fewer men over an extended period of time, even adjusting for casualties and capture. Spain was an event in which al Qaeda shifted toward a more sophisticated operational mode that was intended to indicate that not only was the war not over, but also that the war would last a long time.

Two things came together here. First, there was the need for al Qaeda or a related group to launch a new campaign to move the war forward. The second thing was that al Qaeda hit at the soft underbelly of the U.S. alliance. The United States has spent a great deal of time working on the Islamic states. It has not spent an equivalent amount of time hardening its non-Islamic allies. A wave of attacks could shift internal political dynamics and generate a backlash against the United States.

It should be borne in mind that the Spanish attack was not a trivial one -- 200 people died and approximately 1,500 were wounded. The total casualties in Spain were almost half the number of casualties on Sept. 11, it being understood that most of the U.S. casualties were dead and the majority of the Spanish casualties were not. It was not Sept.11, but it was huge. More important, Sept. 11 could be viewed as unprovoked. There are those in Spain who will say that the attack was provoked by Spain's unnecessary alignment with the United States over Iraq.

There are other countries in Spain's position. Britain obviously is, but so are Italy, Portugal, the Netherlands, Poland, Hungary and Australia, among others. All of these have been as strongly aligned with the United States as Spain. A wave of attacks in these countries, against soft targets like this, could shift the global balance. This, therefore, increases the pressure on the United States to make headway in Pakistan. It is not clear that the United States can do it, but it will want to.

After Sept. 11, there was a scenario we thought of as the "Mall of America" approach. This was attacking heavily populated, contained areas that could not be heavily defended because there were so many of these targets. Al Qaeda did not carry out that strategy because it did not need to. It needs to now, and might well start with targets in Europe in order to destabilize the U.S. position there.

The Islamists are thinking over their effect on the Spanish election. They are also aware that an election is coming in the United States and they would dearly like to bring down President George W. Bush. They must know that presidents always get a bounce after an attack, and that that bounce bleeds off over the course of months when no progress appears to be made. That would argue that an al Qaeda attack in the United States should come in the spring or summer. The mention of "Black Wind" in a militant communiqué clearly refers to a dirty bomb or chemical attack, but al Qaeda has rarely been kind enough to telegraph its punches. However, there can be little doubt now that we are in a new phase of the war. Having won the first phase, the United States is facing a sustained counterattack.

[Prodigal Son]

Hey, no takers yet, BTW.

Working on it. This is a bad time. Early morning here in the UK and late in the States.

[swilhelm73]

More important, Sept. 11 could be viewed as unprovoked.

Had AQ attacked the Spanish military or governmental targets, then one can at least argue that such attacks were 'provoked'. Targetting civilians in a train station is almost be definition unprevoked.

This isn't a mere nit. The left as a whole has been far too accepting of those who target civilians be it the Soviet "omelet", the "evil oppressing capitalists" in the World Trade Centers, or the "Zionest NAZIs" in Israel.

[Humidston]

Wow. All I can say is Bush better win. If he doesn't, we might as well hang it up.

[nutmeg]

read later bump

[dasboot]

Taker: Evil triumphs. People are generally stupider that I ever thought possible. I fear bush may be cast out by the same global milquetoast zeitgeist.

[mercy]

I look for a military takeover soon in Spain. The Spanish have proven they are not mature enough for republican democracy. Those aware in Spain surely realize their land ranks high on the islamonazi's list of lands to be regained from the infidel. Franco redux.

[LdSentinal]

Al-Queda looks at this election, see the results of their work, and it looks like a sure bet there will be a terrorist attack in the United States as the election nears.

[Iris7]

A big strike is coming aimed at getting Kerry elected. The high oil prices are already doing their work.

Remember that the Viet Nam war was not lost in Viet Nam but in the United States. El Queda (and imitators) is not our most dangerous enemy, unfortunately, but instead the enemy most likely to defeat us is - well, the answer is obvious.

[nutmeg]

Al-Queda looks at this election, see the results of their work, and it looks like a sure bet there will be a terrorist attack in the United States as the election nears.

Exactly what I first thought when I heard Spain's election results.

[nutmeg]

ping

[jocon307]

"They must know that presidents always get a bounce after an attack,..."

Well, why do they say this? Do they mean presidents get a bounce, but prime ministers just get bounced?

The Spaniards have done a foolish, very, extremely foolish thing. They have caved to the terrorists. If nothing else this will encourage ETA, even if they had nothing to do with the recent attack.

Why don't people get it, the Islamofascists are not criminals, they are warriors, and they are playing for keeps. It's a global jihad and it's very far from over.

[Timm]

Public opinion about these matters in Spain is not like that in the United States. Many Spanish people regard the attacks of 9-11 as, if not justified, at least understandable in light of what they regard as uniquely American sins: capitalism, global warming, unilateralism-- the usual suspects. Such Spanish people think that their only justifiably criticized action is siding with us in Iraq. These people don't see themselves as vulnerable to Islamic terror except insofar as they join in our military adventures in the Middle East. Hence their response to the attack.

A majority of people in the U.S. do not regard the attacks of 9-11 as understandable, however. Most people do see the war in Iraq as a recognizable element in the war on terror, too. So, if there were another attack here, it wouldn't have the same impact on morale as it obviously did in Spain.

Having said that, these events in Spain do show that our upcoming election is vitally important, surely the most important since Reagan-Carter and perhaps more important than that election, too. (Though I suppose in light of events that followed, you might say Bush-Gore was at least as important as this election, though no one understood these reasons for that at the time.) If large segments of the European population want to slide into the depressing posture of appeasement and weakness in the face of aggression, it is going to be all the more vital that an American president willing to fight alone occupy the office. That ain't John Kerry.

[SiskiyouSam]

As the Socialists have won in Spain, it comes to mind that al Qaeda may be considering a similar attack in the US before the elections. Similar attacks could be planned in the UK and Italy, Poland, Holland, etc.

I pray that I am wrong, however, how can al Qaeda not be encouraged by the Euro-idiots who've voted in a government ready and willing to bury its head in the Iraqi sands and take it in the rear for peace. It's not going to happen.

The Spaniards of all people still should have a collective memory of the hundreds of years of Islamist rule in their nation. The Islamists have never forgiven the Spanish for displacing them from alHambra and Cordoba. In fact, part of the payback stems from what one al Qaeda operative called "long forgotten debts" that are owed by the Spanish people to the Islamofanatics.

By the way, these bombings are not uncommon before elections. They were done before Lebanese elections as well to influence the vote.

An interesting difference I might add is that al Qaeda is having difficulty pulling off massive strikes similar to 9/11. Prior to 9/11, when they thought they could strike at the American military with no cause to worry about retaliation, they did so with reckless abandon. They hit us in Beirut with the downing of the Marine barracks in 1983. They brought down the US Embassy in Beirut twice in 1984 and 1985. WTC 1993, and Khobar a couple of years later. They hit the embassies in East Africa in 1998. The USS Cole in Yemen in 2000. Then 9/11.

Since then, instead they have only been able to strike at cafes, bars, restaurants and now train stations. They are targeting Euro and Asian targets rather than American targets to further isolate us.

It is more important to than ever to encourage the American people that our National Security is more important an issue than the economy. Those who say jobs are more important than national security are missing a very important point. Those 3000 people killed on 9/11 were at work doing their jobs and those killed and injured on 3/11 in Madrid were going to theirs as well.

I rest my case.

[nopardons]

And a brilliantly bstate case it is!

[Travis McGee]

There will be no Golpe in Espana. That couldn't even be brought off in 1976.

[js1138]

That means that the attackers have survived. It also means that they are in a position to carry out further attacks.

It also means that the cell phone that wasn't destroyed is pretty important.

[philetus]

All I can say is there are a lot of cowards in the world.

[Maynerd]

Ba Ba. The Spanish sheeple have spoken.

Regardless, W will be re-elected and the US will triumph in the WOT. Kerry is cold fish who will only rot over the next 8 months.

[meenie]

The story that is not being told is that a large number of the Basque separatists are Muslim. A muslim terrorism campaign has been ongoing in Spain for years. The disagreement over whether Mulim extremists or Basque separatists engineered this attack is pointless. They are both Muslim.