Posted on 03/14/2004 3:14:30 PM PST by beebuster2000
KEY STATE ELECTION POLL JUST IN: STATE OF DENIAL
Six months ago, it seemed that this campaign would be a pleasant little divertissement. A sitting President seemed unchallengeable with virtually unlimited financial resources, managing a recovering economy and the immeasurable personal goodwill reservoir that comes from a successful wartime defense of the nation. A challenge by Howard Dean an unknown governor from a micro leftist New England state promised to be good fun. Sit back, wave some popcorn and enjoy. Or so it seemed.
What a difference six months makes. Now, as the faint aroma of flop sweat begins to waft through the Bush reelection “juggernaut”, might I suggest that the Bush team, and its ardent supporters (of which I count myself one) are increasingly in denial? It is now painfully and increasingly obvious that the President’s campaign team has totally lost control of the election agenda and is on the verge of being both “Quayled” and “Doled”. For those that have forgotten, Dan Quayle was tagged a dummy via the potato-e route, and once fragged, tagged, and bagged by the media, became the story. And the story had legs. In the final phase, urban legend about totally untrue remarks (Latin spoken in Latin America-remember that one?) was reported as fact to feed the Quayleing. The media and his advisers convinced Bob Dole, Mr. Lifelong Acerbic, that if he “went negative” he would be massacred in the press. Unwisely, he sought a total makeover as a nice guy, and by the time the convention rolled around he was DOA due mainly to aggressive and early Democratic positioning of him. He responded weakly, and too late. Sound familiar?
The President is entering the same danger zone trod by Dan and Bob: his opponents are increasingly in charge of his image. Its not Kerry vs. Bush, but Bush vs. Bush, with the forces of darkness getting to play the Bush hand. Not surprisingly, Bush is losing. Media focus is now almost exclusively on the Presidents “failures”, “problems”, his “falling approval”. Radio, TV, Newspapers, the pattern to watch is every key story starts with a quick reference to the event being reported, then rapid move to a discussion of how it negatively impacts Bush. How pervasive is this? Seeking refuge from the Bush bashing spin on the front page, I opened the movie reviews this weekend. Surprise- even the reviews are Bush bashing: “The Day After”- gonna hurt Bush because he is pro global warming; “Spartan”, a movie about some government plot had this astonishing one liner in the review: “…ripped holes in the country’s cultural myths. They reinforced any paranoid’s worst fears about abuses of political power. As today’s headlines raise more and more questions about US intelligence and the post September 11 policies of the Bush administration…” I’d say when even the movie reviews are spinning, you have lost control of the agenda.
That’s just the small stuff that has permeated every media outlet in an unrelenting wash of negative. The big stuff is an even more serious problem since it shows there is little positive the President can do to turn things around. I first became concerned with the President’s campaign political strategists when the President okayed the protectionist steel tariff move. Something in complete opposition to what I felt were this President’s innate beliefs, but calculated to achieve a political result: union and other support. OK, I can go along with a certain amount of pragmatism and deal making if it achieves the greater good. But it was a colossal flop!! Backfired with conservatives who support free trade-and more problematic- didn’t garner the political benefit anticipated. Followed by its reversal. A complete misstep, which I am afraid to say, set the pattern for the future.
How about a quick list of initiatives, designed originally to power the President out of the ditch and the impotent initiative outcomes:
Drug Benefit: waste of time politically, no real increase in support by Seniors, busted the budget and was counter spun by the Democrats as a reward to “evil drug companies”.
Immigration Reform: Zip rising support amongst Hispanics, disaster for the conservative base, undoable in the Congress
No Child Left Behind: Counter spun by the Democrats and the Teacher Unions, totally muddied message coming from the White House on why it was a good thing. The charge by Democrat candidates that it is “under funded” left largely unrefuted.
Mars Trip: Huh? Came off as laughable attempt to recreate the Kennedy “by the end of this decade-the moon Alice” position. But against the backdrop of the economy and war- laughable.
Patriot Act: After receiving huge support at its passage, failure to defend the reasons behind the Act and its benefits has permitted the Democrats to counter spin the Act. Which has now entered the collective consciousness as an obviously secret plot to rob us of freedom. Likewise, failure to defend Ashcroft has allowed him to become a symbol of evil intent. Incredibly, this is in the face of the facts that not ONE SINGLE DOCUMENTED INCIDENT of actual abuse has ever been reported as a result of the Patriot Act.
I could go on- but you get the idea. No good deed left untargeted, unpunished or unspun to the negative. If Karl Rove is the Emperor of Political Operatives-is it possible he has no clothes? Granted the Republicans in general and this President in particular are sailing into a 50 mph media headwind, but that’s not going to change.
The result to date: total loss of the re-election agenda. Where did it go wrong?
DEAN SHOWS THE WAY
Oddly, it all started with Howard. The true outsider, the man with nothing to lose. Early, he cranked up the rhetoric and Bush bashing. No slanders too low, no conspiracy theory too loopy. Through the summer of 2003, Democrats held their collective breath and waited to see if he would be struck by lightning. Would the Media flay him, would the polls bury him? NO!! In fact he soared- the message worked!! You could trash Bush and live to tell the tale!! Suddenly the Primaries became who was most anti-Bush. Gephardt and others began to polish up their “miserable failure” speeches. Howard had successfully shown that you didn’t need to talk about what YOU would do- it was enough to rip Bush. One little problem though. Dean’s bug-eyed swollen neck vein image raised a tiny bit of an “elect ability” issue. That piece of the puzzle was yet to be solved. But the basic strategy was set. Destroy Bush on a personal level and you win. One more key piece of Democratic learning via Howard: You could rip Bush and draw no serious response from the Republicans; you had the TV screen to yourself. A lot of screen. A lot of free screen. You didn’t need money for ads. Bush bashing speeches were carried as public service by all Media. The President’s numbers in the Polls started to move-down.
THE KAY FACTOR
Then, an asteroid size PR disaster hits Planet Bush. There are no WMD. Or so the BIG MEDIA played former inspector David Kay’s numerous appearances. Lost in the reporting were Kay’s assertions that Sadaam was, in fact, even more dangerous than thought. The reporting: irrefutable “fact” that the entire basis of the war was now invalid. What the Nation saw by way of response by the White House was hesitancy. Rocked on the heels. Deer in the headlights. When finally mini-explanations were attempted, patiently explaining the wider, more complex reasoning for the war, they were unconvincing and played poorly vs. the no WMD sound bite. Equally lame sounding were assertions that we aren’t finished looking in Iraq yet. A totally impotent SOP emerged on the part of the Administration: fight sound bites with reasoned arguments. To this day, that impotency continues. If the President loses the election the beginning of the end will probably be traced to the Kay asteroid impact event. By losing the WMD high ground, and failing to effectively counter, the President lost something both vague and vast: the mantle of certainty in the war on terror, the moral high ground, an air of infallibility. Capitalizing on the opening, opponents attacked in force and quickly moved the effort to the next level of damage, claiming not only are there no weapons, but Bush knew, Bush lied, Bush misled. Utterly unsubstantiated- but great theater and well reported by the Media.
Having learned from the Dean experience that little effective response would be forthcoming, Democrats could now launch an attack on the very home ground of the Bush re-election effort: the Presidents moral character. Democrats would say, insinuate, and spin in a thousand ways, and daily, that Bush’s moral failings were the real cause of the unnecessary war in Iraq. Revisit, with impunity, the “Guard” issue. Finally the Democrats had the dialogue at a level where real damage could be done. The pattern of little effective response from Republicans continued. Polls dropped sharply. Democrats finally had the numbers going strongly in their direction.
DEAN IMPLODES AND THE DEMS TRADE UP
In late January 2004 what had seemed a Democrat fantasy in the summer of 2003 began to seem a possibility. A Democrat could beat Bush- just maybe. That meant the run for the Democratic nomination wasn’t just a vanity exercise- the guy could actually end up being President !! Dean’s “elect ability” problem now became a real issue. Enter John Kerry. Given up for dead just two months earlier, Kerry brought just the right mix of two issues. By dropping the Dean bug-eye demeanor, and botoxing away any Dean-like swollen neck veins Kerry avoided the major impediment to Dean’s marketability. But he kept the relentless Bush bashing that Dean pioneered, and which he at first awkwardly, but finally enthusiastically, embraced after understudying Dean in the primary debates.
Just as important, he had taken just about every position on every issue and so, with 20 years political experience, could muddle any question, presenting little conviction and little target for a media that was pre-disposed to keep Bush as the issue. Kerry unveiled a masterful ability to never say what he would do as President, but keep up a high volume of Bush focus, supported by a cast of Party and extra-Party surrogates for whom no attack is too low.
Kerry: all the Bush bashing with none of the Dean screaming- throw in a few medals, add the "jobs" issue and bake for 8 months until done. Voila.
And further down go the President’s numbers.
WHAT IS TO BE DONE?
Hope is not a plan. If the situation stays as is- the President loses in November. Wake up!! The President has lost control of the election agenda- he has been positioned, early, by the Democrats as the issue. By maintaining the high reasoned ground he is heading down the Dole path. Right now its Bush vs. Bush, and Bush is losing. Continuing the weak responses on an intellectual level is a losing hand. Surely that must be obvious at this point. Currently, nothing Kerry says or does matters since he isn’t running in the Bush vs. Bush election. Only two things can change this. One- some major external factor, like a development in the War on Terror, positive or negative. The second factor is John Kerry becoming the issue. Since the external factor is beyond control, the Administration must come to its senses and realize the imperative of making John Kerry the issue. That means total attack. I don’t mean the pathetic ads that began running the week of March 8. “John Kerry- wrong on taxes, wrong on defense”. Pitiful. I mean a relentless, hourly attack by all elements of the Republican Party and associates. A daily Kerry issue talking point. Coordinated ads, speeches and appearances. Either Karl Rove has the right stuff and will show it in the next six weeks, or the President is doomed. I know its ugly, but it must be recognized that the ground has shifted, the rules have changed, and that more of the same will result in Kerry as President next January. Time to take Kerry up on his challenge and really “bring it on” !!!
Not so fast!
3 1/2 days and not a peep out of Kerry since the Madrid massacre.
He is afraid of the terrorist issue.
Saying anything now is a lose lose for Kerry.
Let him. Hell, Howard Dean told Tim Russert that Kerry is "struggling with how to deal with the war on terrorism."
Kerry is weak, weak, weak, in the war on terror. He wants it to be a law enforcement issue!
I predict Kerry won't say one word about it.
Hit the nail on the head. All you hear is how W isn't making the same mistake as GHWB and not to alienating the BASE. If spending billions on medicare welfare and other socialism isn't making the same mistakes what is? When they say the base they're talking about abortion and homosex. Got news for you I don't CARE about laws on abortion and homosex (let god sort em out) but I care about spending my money like drunken sailor.
Quite a few of our most self confident geniuses are brand new. They have the brash self confidence of the coke head, manic-depressive, or Dem troll.
Look at the reaction of the American public to terrorists attacks as compared to the Spanish public. They are totally opposite.
Americans were 90% for going after the terrorists. The Spanish instead want to appease them.
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