Bush Takes Back The Lead As 'Primary Effect' Wanes (Good News!)

President Bush has regained the lead from Sen. John Kerry in the latest IBD/TIPP Poll as the boost the challenger got from the Democratic primaries wears off and the incumbent starts his own campaign in earnest.

The nationwide poll of 863 adults taken last Monday through Thursday showed that, among 743 registered voters, Bush leads Kerry 45% to 40%, with 6% going to Independent Ralph Nader.

A week earlier, Bush trailed Kerry in IBD/TIPP polling by a 44%-41% margin. But the president reclaimed support in his traditional strongholds.

now leads Kerry 56% to 33% in Republican-loyal, or "red," states, 51% to 38% in the South and 49% to 40% in the Midwest.

Bush's lead in swing states, however, has narrowed to 1 point from 4. But Kerry's lead in Democrat-loyal (blue) states has shrunk to 9 points from 12, and his advantage in urban areas has narrowed to 10 points from 18. In suburban areas, Bush's lead widened to 18 points from 13.

In rural America, a traditional Bush stronghold, Kerry ran even in the week-earlier survey. But now Bush is back up by 14 points.

"The week before, the picture was distorted in aftermath of the primaries," said Raghavan Mayur, president of TIPP, a unit of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence and IBD's polling partner.

Now, after Democratic candidates' months-long questioning of Bush policies, "things are returning to normal," he said.

The president's ad campaign may also be bearing its first fruits, Mayur said. News from Iraq also took a turn for the better, he noted, with the signing of an interim constitution.

Another possible factor, Mayur said, is resurgent Christian activism brought about by the emotional stirrings of Mel Gibson's blockbuster film, "The Passion of the Christ."

In contrast to the volatile numbers for Bush and Kerry, the vote for Nader stayed the same.

In a three-way race, Bush's lead expands by 2 percentage points – 45% to 40%, with Nader at 6% and undecideds at 7%.

Nader draws more voters from Kerry than Bush. Over half (51%) of those favoring Nader mentioned that they would vote for Kerry in a two-candidate poll question. Only a sixth (17%) would vote for Bush.

..and IF John Flipper Kerry is literally DEAD...?

If he died after the state deadlines, then the ballots would still say "Kerry". In the states which his electors won, they would be responsible for voting for someone else.

They could get him dead, but it would be difficult to make it look like an accident that aroused sympathy for the replacement candidate, given that they lack control of the administration.

All of the deaths of John Kennedy, Vince Foster and Ron Brown, if the "alternative explanations" (what the left and even some skeptics on the right call "conspiracy theories") have merit, required an active degree of complicity directly from the Oval Office in order to keep covered up.

They would not have that complicity. And if the Silent Majority began to doubt the "story" and the innocence of the replacement candidate, then the 'Rats loose, worse than if they just let Flipper go on to be another Dukakis.

Don't know if you saw this, but what an image of a good and Godly man ... may God continue to bless us with this good and brave man for the next 4 years.

President Bush comforts an unidentified family member of a September 11 victim during a ground-breaking ceremony for the Nassau County 9/11 Memorial in East Meadow, N.Y.

I put that as my number one photo when I posted the Dose last Thursday.

The goodness and depth of this man in comparison to the utter phoniness and hypocrisy of John Flipflop Kerry will be evident as they both continue to campaign.

The majority of American people will see the difference, and choose to vote for the RIGHT man.

While originally posted on another thread (in response to another issue), the following comments also address your question:

REALITY CHECK:

POINT ONE: During their respective first terms, BOTH Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan posted Gallup approval ratings in the 30s/40s OVER 50% of the time -- so far, GWB has had an approval rating below 50% exactly TWICE!

In fact, during his 8 year tenure, Ronald Reagan averaged a 53% Gallup approval rating and posted approval ratings in the 30s/40s during almost 6 of his 8 years!! Fortunately for President Reagan, the economy/employment surged in 1984 just in time for his re-election [During his election year, Reagan's approval ratings stayed in the low 50s until Sept when his approval rating hit 57% before dropping to 54% in early October; by the end of October his rating had returned to 58%.]

After re-election, President Reagan posted approval ratings in the 60s for over a year UNTIL Iran-Contra broke (late 1986), after which he plummeted from 63% to 47% approval in one month (where he remained, +/-3) until 1988!

POINT TWO: As the Republican pollster for National Public Radio (NPR) indicates, most pollsters give Democrats a 3-6 point advantage in their voter identification sample; NPR does NOT -- it gives Democrats a ONE point advantage. This is why NPR's last poll (completed March 1) gave the President a +2 advantage over Kerry when Gallup put the spread at -8 -- NPR also put the President's approval rating at 53% vs 49% for Gallup (comparing similar time periods)!

REMEMBER, THE MEDIA IS OVERTLY SUPPORTING THE DEMOCRATS THIS ELECTION CYCLE -- THIS FACT ALONE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS THE PRESIDENT'S APPROVAL RATINGS (most Democrats and Independents get their 'facts' from the dominant media)!

We MUST work harder and smarter than the Democrats; if we do, the current 52:48 Republican to Democrat electoral ratio should hold!

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