Story Behind The Democrats' Losing Streak (CA's No Rock-Solid Democratic Bastion)

Sacramento Bee ^ | 3/11/04 | Daniel Weintraub

[goldstategop]

For as long as Gray Davis was governor, his top political adviser, Garry South, preached to fellow Democrats not to take the state's electorate for granted. While the voters year after year gave Democrats big majorities in the Legislature, South warned that Californians were not nearly as leftist as those results might lead some to believe.

[goldstategop]

California is a state which leans right in statewide elections yet keeps sending Democratic majorities to the State Legislature. Daniel Weintraub's disarmingly simple explanation to this strange conundrum is there are two electorates in California and one is the inverse of the other. Democrats do well in gerrymandered districts but make no headway convincing statewide voters to embrace the party's agenda. Thanks to this phenomenon, Democrats receive more seats in the State Legislature in spite of getting fewer votes than Republicans and despite their reputation of being out of sync with the views of the state's voters as a whole. California is by no means the rock-solid Left Coast Democratic bastion it is depicted to be in the mainstream media. Californians are a pretty ornery and independent lot and and don't necessarily care to toe the party line in Sacramento.

[madison46]

Well, we may reject them on ballots, but we don't punish them with their laws...which gut some of the initiatives or just down right ignore them (illegal immigrant licenses for instanct)

The numbers represented by GOP vs. Dem was very interesting.

[goldstategop]

The thing is while Democrats outnumber Republicans in voter registration in California, they do not constitute a majority of the state's voters. The ratio is like 3-2 if I recall correctly. The rest is taken up by decline to state and independent voters. So yes, the Democrats share of the statewide vote has been declining for decades and they're on top of the heap by their ability to spread out their voters and concentrate Republicans into as few districts as possible so they can't lose their majority. When all is said and done, the gains from gerrymandering won't last forever if the Democrats' share of the statewide vote continues to decline. And what helps is the views of their party's candidates are becoming more extreme than Californians are willing to embrace.

[madison46]

I agree. I heard on Sacramento radio station, maybe inteview with Bill Jones, that GOP registration is UP and decline to state is UP. Could be the Dem voters are starting their un-embrace. Well see.

The trend for GORE and state going Dem so overwhelmingly in national elections seems to counter this drift though.

[goldstategop]

Its true Kerry has to be considered the favorite here but I expect the Democrats to spend money this time whereas they spent almost none in 2000 to keep the state in their column.

[madison46]

That'll depend on the 'issues' that take center stage. If the issue is gay marriage and the economy's job growth catch's up to the growing economy, throw in Arnold, and GW could take the state; however, if the preception about jobs is still out there, then CA is all Dem. It's the economy.

[goldstategop]

If its national security and cultural issues, I think the President has a good chance to win this state. If its the economy and Democratic social programs, heads up to Kerry. The national contest is still being framed and we'll see over the couple of months who gets the upper hand.

[PGalt]

Interesting article. Thanks for posting it.

[SamAdams76]

It's not as overwhelmingly Democratic as you might think. Here is how the 2000 race played out. Blue for Bush. Out of some 55 counties, 38 voted for Bush. Bush needs to campaign heavily in those heavily populated coastal counties and he can turn the tide for 2004.

[goldstategop]

Its the inland counties that are trending Republican and the Democrats are left hugging a sliver of coastline. Los Angeles County is increasingly more of a "swing" than a Democratic county and goes with whoever takes the chunk of the statewide vote. If John F. Kerry looks like he'll carry only the Bay Area, he can write off California this year.

[mo]

this does'nt make a lot of sense to me.....what would make more sense is voter fraud....:)

[Henchman]

California is like a giant Granola Bar.... those that aren't fruits or nuts, are flakes.

[TheGeezer]

What possible difference does it make? The DemocRats pack the judicial bench with leftists who declare everything unpalatable to liberofascists illegal. They then order legislatures to make new laws conforming to liberofascist agenda.

We are coming to a day when democracy will die because linerofascist academia condones the practice. And then what?

I'm glad I'm a geezer. The struggle to regain liberty will be with the youth, if the liberofascist-dominated public school system hasn't destroyed their minds by then.

[atomicpossum]

The point to keep in mind is that Bush can win without California. The Dems cannot, and they know this. Make them work for it.

[Kuksool]

The problem is that there are not enough people living in the Bush Zone of CA. Most of the CA population is packed into the coastal cities. As a result, the lunatics in the Bay Area are allowed to bully the rest of the state.

[mwl1]

Yes. Even if we do not carry California, we'll make the RATS go broke defending it, thus bankrupting their efforts elsewhere... media markets in California are extremely expensive. The Bush presence in the state will also spillover to hurt Boxer.

[Ahban]

I think you are right. There is still good news in the long term though. The bay area homosexual / hetereo abortion lovers will be out populated by the conservative families.

Plate tectonics might also supply us with a dramatic solution to this problem. (joke, just a little joke)

[McGavin999]

Until those "decline to state" and independents do something their state will continue to stay in the grip of one of the most arrogant legislatures in the country....and California will continue to pay the price with more business moving out of state.

It's already slid into anarchy with the SF fiasco and if the good people of California thinks the anarchy is going to stop at gay weddings they have a nasty surprise coming. Anarchy spreads fast.

[bray]

Yaaaawn Tax Hikerry is no bill clinton/gore. He is not getting the Black Plantation and Soddomwood is not thrilled with him.

Pray for W and The Passion

[Gritty]

Overall, the Democrats won just 53 percent of the vote cast in all 80 elections

I wonder how many of these Democrat votes were illegal?