Hillary, It's Now or Never

FrontPageMagazine.com ^ | 3/11/04 | Dick Morris

[kattracks]

If Sen. John Kerry, D-MA, beats President Bush and Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-NY, is not on the Democratic ticket as a vice presidential candidate, she will probably never be president of the United States. This cold, hard fact is staring the Clintons in the face as they assess the best way to inaugurate a new Clinton presidency.

Consider the options and their historic contexts:

If Kerry wins in 2004, he will very likely seek re-election. The last time a president served four years and didn’t try to succeed himself was back in 1880 and the president was Rutherford B. Hayes. So, unless Hillary wants to try to mount the first successful challenge to a presidential renomination since Gene McCarthy forced Lyndon Johnson into retirement in 1968, she will have to sit out the 2008 contest.

Should Kerry be re-elected, his vice president will probably be the Democratic candidate in 2012. All five times, since 1960, that a vice president sought the nomination for president after his party controlled the White House for at least two terms he has gotten it (Richard Nixon in 1960, Hubert Humphrey in 1968, Gerald Ford in 1976, George H.W. Bush in 1988, Al Gore in 2000). That means that Hillary would be out in the cold until at least 2016 and, if the Democrat won and was re-elected, until 2020. She’ll be 73 by then.

Even if Kerry is elected and loses a bid for a second term, his vice president would still be the favorite in 2012. Twice, since 1960, a man who served as vice president has come back in a subsequent year to win his party’s nomination — Nixon in 1968 and Walter Mondale in 1984. Humphrey failed to get the nod in 1972, but he had already run and lost four years before. Dan Quayle failed also, but he was, well, Quayle.

If Bush is re-elected, Hillary doesn’t need to have been on Kerry’s ticket. She can still prevail in 2008 over Kerry’s defeated vice presidential nominee. After all, neither Ed Muskie in 1972, Bob Dole in 1996 nor Joe Lieberman in 2004 was able to convert a losing bid for vice president into a successful race for president (two of the three weren’t even nominated).

But if Kerry wins and another person is vice president, how will Hillary keep fresh until 2012? In the Senate while all the Democratic action is at the other end of Pennsylvania Avenue? And how will she compete with a sitting vice president who has all the resources of the White House at his disposal and eight years to build up his momentum?

She can’t, and she won’t.

So what should she do? If Kerry is anywhere close to Bush at convention time, she’d better go for the second spot. A close defeat wouldn’t hurt her and, if Kerry wins, it will be her only way to become the second President Clinton.

And don’t kid yourself; the decision is Hillary’s to make. The Clintons still control the Democratic Party. If Hillary wants to run for vice president, Kerry has to go along. For him to spurn the former first lady would be to cause a schism in the party. He’ll be pulling knives out of his back for the entire race.

In any case, it is in Kerry’s interest to ensure that the Clintons will work for him and not undermine his candidacy. The logic of their need for a Bush re-election to assure a Hillary presidency is just too compelling. Kerry needs to put Hillary on his ticket as a kind of hostage to be certain of the Clintons’ strong and full support. There are just too many ways that the Clintons can sabotage his candidacy without seeming to be doing so. (For example, Bill can publish his memoirs in September or October of 2004 and create a massive distraction that would force Kerry off center stage).

Kerry needs Hillary on the ticket. A vice presidential candidacy by her would turn his campaign into a crusade and would energize her supporters to a fever pitch. It would summon all the good memories of the Clinton prosperity without the bad reminders of Monica, et. al. But, most of all, Kerry cannot afford to leave the Clintons sulking, like Achilles, in their tent. Otherwise, Troy will go Republican.

---

Dick Morris is a former adviser to President Clinton.

[RSmithOpt]

Amazing how many FReepers think the same thing.

[CIB-173RDABN]

Hillary is running today.

Kerry is the side show. Remember he is NOT the Democratic candidate, yet. That will not occur until the convention.

Kerry is going out of his way to be mean and nasty. He is trying to draw us to attacking him. At the convention he will "gracefully" bow out, and guess who will be standing in the wing waiting for the nod. Hillary.

Hillary can not stand up to a long campaign. The only way possible for her to win, is to have as short of a campaign as possible.

If Kerry, and the media can get President Bush to go negative, Hillary can step in and take the "high" road daring the GOP to go negative.

I think this has all been calculated to try and box the President in, so that he can not expose Hillary for what she is.

Now I will put my tin hat back on.

[steveegg]

I actually discount the idea of Hiliary running as VP. She actively avoids high-risk gambles she can't rig, and while the payoff would be enormous, the more-likely failure would be fatal to her political career. Just ask Fritz Mondale and Bob Dole just how successful losing VP candidates are in their future ambitions to the White House (and Hiliary is no FDR, who had the benefit of 12 years and the start of the Great Depression between his failed VP run and his Presidential run).

[mabelkitty]

Morris is working for the Clintons, as his constanct Hillary for President fetish confirms.
She can't win.
And with her on the Kerry ticket, he will dive bomb.
She has no supporters outside of New York.

[steveegg]

Let's take a look at what Hiliary would bring to the DemonRAT ticket...

• Women - oops, they already vote for the 'RATs in droves. I doubt they'll gain much, if anything, in this department (see 1984 and the Ferraro experiment).
• New York - oops, it's already in the "safe RAT" column
• Illinois - oops, it's already in the "safe RAT" column
• Arkansas - oops, too many burned bridges for her "ties" to that state to be of any benefit
• The Bush haters - oops, they're already out in force

Indeed, the only effect on the ticket would be negative, as those that hate the Clintoons but don't have a lot of love for W will turn out just to keep Hiliary away from Cheney's house and away from one heartbeat from the Oval Office.

[usapatriot28]

The last time a president served four years and didn?t try to succeed himself was back in 1880 and the president was Rutherford B. Hayes.

Uh, Johnson 1968.

All five times, since 1960, that a vice president sought the nomination for president after his party controlled the White House for at least two terms he has gotten it (Richard Nixon in 1960, Hubert Humphrey in 1968, Gerald Ford in 1976, George H.W. Bush in 1988, Al Gore in 2000).

Ford was the incumbent President. Granted not by election, but he was President none-the-less.

[monocle]

And Cheney's silverware.

[steveegg]

I hate to say it, but on that detail, Dick Morris is right. LBJ actually served a hair over 5 years ("thanks" to Lee Harvey Oswald, he finished off the last 14 months of Kennedy's term before being elected in his own right).

[ken5050]

"Toe sucking" can cause brain farts...

[Dubh_Ghlase]

Just for brainstorming & discussion....

Don't you think though that IF hillary could, along with the new jfk, manipulate the vote enough to get in, and then "arrange it" for jfk to revisit Dallas that she would take the chance? I doubt that on her own she could swing getting to the WH by herself, she needs to be swept in on someone else's coattails. Once that's done and the office is within her grasp, she will explore ways and means to make the final step into power. Conniving and manipulation is the tradmarks here. There is no restrictions to the methods used when the End justifies the Means.

Whoever embraces HRC had better have iron underwear...

[JoeSixPack1]

Back in the days when the toe sucker had an FR account, I told him he was an A--hole. He was incredulously indignant for some reason. Maybe I didn't explain it properly?

[usapatriot28]

I hate to say it, but on that detail, Dick Morris is right. LBJ actually served a hair over 5 years ("thanks" to Lee Harvey Oswald, he finished off the last 14 months of Kennedy's term before being elected in his own right).

I guess I interpreted his statement differently. I took it to mean a President who served at least 4 years, not exactly 4 years. But I guess my interpretation doesn't really work cause Truman, Coolidge, Wilson and T. Roosevlet and Cleveland would all fall in that category as well.

[steveegg]

Personally, I think that Hiliary is more than willing to let the Kennedy wing of the DemonRATs commit political Arkancide with Ke(rr)y (with the Algore wing already Arkancided with Dean's implosion), walking in as a "savior" much like S(l)ick Willie did in 1992. The thought is that by 2008, the 'RATs will be so power-starved and weak that they'll overlook the baggage that she brings with her and the fact that no Clinton could ever do anything to advance any part of the agenda that is not a Clinton exclusive.

[steveegg]

Just call me a student of history. Truman was a special case, as the the 22nd Amendment (limiting Presidents to 2 elected terms or 10 total potential years) would have DQed him in 1952 (after the last 3 years of FDR's 4th term and his own term) had it not explicitly excluded him. Wilson and Cleveland served 2 full terms, though Cleveland's terms were separated by a loss (thus making him the Ultimate Comeback Kid). Thanks for reminding me about Coolidge; I forgot about him in my first look at this.

[HankReardon]

If Kerry wins, he'll have a republican Senate and House to deal with, he will not advance his socialist agenda.

[sport]

Have you ever heard the words "Executive Order" ?

[hattend]

Hillary, It's Now or Never

If it's a choice, I choose "NEVER"

[HankReardon]

I've also heard the words "impeachment" and "conviction" for abuse of power.

[sport]

You are deluding no one but yourself.

Impeachment means nothing in and of itself should the Senate not vote to remove him from office.

The only time that will happen if there is a Republican President impeached.

The Republicans cannot even get a Federal Judge nominee confirmed, how are they going to convict an impeached President should the occasion arise?

[usapatriot28]

Truman was a special case, as the the 22nd Amendment (limiting Presidents to 2 elected terms or 10 total potential years) would have DQed him in 1952 (after the last 3 years of FDR's 4th term and his own term) had it not explicitly excluded him.

I'm not so sure:

Amendment XXII
...But this Article shall not apply to any person holding the office of President, when this Article was proposed by the Congress, and shall not prevent any person who may be holding the office of President, or acting as President, during the term within which this Article becomes operative from holding the office of President or acting as President during the remainder of such term.

I read that to mean that the amendment didn't apply to Truman in any way.

I did in fact consider the the 22nd Amendment, which is why I left Eisenhower, Reagan and Clinton off the list.