Hillary, It's Now or Never

FrontPageMagazine.com ^ | 3/11/04 | Dick Morris

[kattracks]

If Sen. John Kerry, D-MA, beats President Bush and Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-NY, is not on the Democratic ticket as a vice presidential candidate, she will probably never be president of the United States. This cold, hard fact is staring the Clintons in the face as they assess the best way to inaugurate a new Clinton presidency.

Consider the options and their historic contexts:

If Kerry wins in 2004, he will very likely seek re-election. The last time a president served four years and didn’t try to succeed himself was back in 1880 and the president was Rutherford B. Hayes. So, unless Hillary wants to try to mount the first successful challenge to a presidential renomination since Gene McCarthy forced Lyndon Johnson into retirement in 1968, she will have to sit out the 2008 contest.

Should Kerry be re-elected, his vice president will probably be the Democratic candidate in 2012. All five times, since 1960, that a vice president sought the nomination for president after his party controlled the White House for at least two terms he has gotten it (Richard Nixon in 1960, Hubert Humphrey in 1968, Gerald Ford in 1976, George H.W. Bush in 1988, Al Gore in 2000). That means that Hillary would be out in the cold until at least 2016 and, if the Democrat won and was re-elected, until 2020. She’ll be 73 by then.

Even if Kerry is elected and loses a bid for a second term, his vice president would still be the favorite in 2012. Twice, since 1960, a man who served as vice president has come back in a subsequent year to win his party’s nomination — Nixon in 1968 and Walter Mondale in 1984. Humphrey failed to get the nod in 1972, but he had already run and lost four years before. Dan Quayle failed also, but he was, well, Quayle.

If Bush is re-elected, Hillary doesn’t need to have been on Kerry’s ticket. She can still prevail in 2008 over Kerry’s defeated vice presidential nominee. After all, neither Ed Muskie in 1972, Bob Dole in 1996 nor Joe Lieberman in 2004 was able to convert a losing bid for vice president into a successful race for president (two of the three weren’t even nominated).

But if Kerry wins and another person is vice president, how will Hillary keep fresh until 2012? In the Senate while all the Democratic action is at the other end of Pennsylvania Avenue? And how will she compete with a sitting vice president who has all the resources of the White House at his disposal and eight years to build up his momentum?

She can’t, and she won’t.

So what should she do? If Kerry is anywhere close to Bush at convention time, she’d better go for the second spot. A close defeat wouldn’t hurt her and, if Kerry wins, it will be her only way to become the second President Clinton.

And don’t kid yourself; the decision is Hillary’s to make. The Clintons still control the Democratic Party. If Hillary wants to run for vice president, Kerry has to go along. For him to spurn the former first lady would be to cause a schism in the party. He’ll be pulling knives out of his back for the entire race.

In any case, it is in Kerry’s interest to ensure that the Clintons will work for him and not undermine his candidacy. The logic of their need for a Bush re-election to assure a Hillary presidency is just too compelling. Kerry needs to put Hillary on his ticket as a kind of hostage to be certain of the Clintons’ strong and full support. There are just too many ways that the Clintons can sabotage his candidacy without seeming to be doing so. (For example, Bill can publish his memoirs in September or October of 2004 and create a massive distraction that would force Kerry off center stage).

Kerry needs Hillary on the ticket. A vice presidential candidacy by her would turn his campaign into a crusade and would energize her supporters to a fever pitch. It would summon all the good memories of the Clinton prosperity without the bad reminders of Monica, et. al. But, most of all, Kerry cannot afford to leave the Clintons sulking, like Achilles, in their tent. Otherwise, Troy will go Republican.

---

Dick Morris is a former adviser to President Clinton.

[Dawgreg]

A big bag of toe-sucking, full of himself, hot air. He's a legend in his own mind. UGH!

[CatoRenasci]

Ja, sure. BUT, remember that a Kerry-Hillary combination would be FORMIDABLE. I'm not sure W could win under those circumstances, unless everyone really came out and WORKED for W, and the conservatives who aren't completely happy would rather sulk and see Hillary win (does anyone think Kerry would survive long with Hillary as VP) than pull out all the stops for W.

[4CJ]

With the non-stop reporting of a "jobless recovery" and the stock market going south, the old "It's the Economy, Stupid" stage is being set up--as predicted.

To the average person, it's ALWAYS about the money/economy.

Speaking of the Passion, radio preacher stated that Jesus was crucified only when he interfered with the money-lenders in the Temple.

[DooDahhhh]

Ditto!

[steveegg]

> The last time a president served four years and didn’t try to
> succeed himself was back in 1880 and the president was
> Rutherford B. Hayes.

No, it was L.B.J. in 1968.

Actually, it was Hayes. LBJ assumed the final year-plus of JFK's term before being (re-)elected on his own right. Similarily, Teddy Roosevelt didn't run in 1908 after serving just under 2 terms (assumed office in 1901 when William McKinley was assassinated, ran successfully on his own in 1904), but did run in 1912.

[Behind Liberal Lines]

Chief Justice of the Supreme Court

I "like" this theory better. Kerry has to know that, if he puts the Hildebeast on the ticket that every Republican currently lukewarm about Bush will suddenly be crawling over broken glass to see him re-elected. Kerry would be energizing Bush's base for him.

But a SCOTUS slot would not have to be announced in advance and it would give the beast the opportunity to go down in history as the First female Chief Justice.

[Ff--150]

"Speaking of the Passion, radio preacher stated that Jesus was crucified only when he interfered with the money-lenders in the Temple"

YEP! Great point! However, I am kook and 'fraid the market may tank W to get Hillery back in...

[steveegg]

Little Dick Morris is dreaming again; there's no way (short of vote fraud worthy of Saddam's Iraq, that is) that John F'em Ke(rr)y wins this election. Hiliary won't risk being branded a loser on the VP side of the ticket (only 3 legitimate losing candidates later ran to be President, with 1 actually winning).

[Dawgreg]

Hank, when you have a liberal press on your side who shields her "non-accomplishments" from the public and aids and abets her rabid quest for POTUS, the general public won't see that she has no accomplishments. Just an obscene hunger for power. Nothing more, nothing less. :(

[oldironsides]

The main question for Morris is, who set you up and called the media when you had the whore at the hotel? Who set you up and disgraced you? The DNC paid for the hotel and treats? Why anyone listens to this overfed fireplug is beyond me.

[RSmithOpt]

Agree...... I can't believe anyone with one ounce of brains could ever admire her and/or her husband other than they've been smart enough to sway the dumb, deaf, and blind.

FYI: Pop's gone now, but he was a CSM 82nd 45-68. Took him 7 years after retirement to realize the family wasn't his battallion.....LOL Guess he saw enough sh!t in WWII and Korea and couldn't always forget.....

[Graymatter]

>>I can't believe that Kerry would be dumb enough to pick Hitlary to be his VP.

No, of course he won't. His wife won't allow it.

My opinion of HRC is as low as anyone's, but I don't think she's got any chance of becoming president or vice-president. She had, during the Clinton years, some delusions of grandeur, some overblown ambitions, and Morris bought into it. Exposure to red clintonite is known to cause mental problems. Hillary's presidency will arrive right behind the Hale-Bopp comet, that's a promise.

[shezza]

...does anyone think Kerry would survive long with Hillary as VP

My thoughts exactly. JFnK is probably scared to death (no pun intended) of having Madam Arkincide as a running mate. She's GOING to be President in 2008 (she thinks). Better to run as the incumbent woman-VP-turned-Prez-because-of-that-unfortunate-incident rather than take on a sitting Democratic president in 2008. (But that's all moot, since GW's going to win handily, IMHO.)

[N. Theknow]

So, unless Hillary wants to try to mount the first successful challenge to a presidential renomination since Gene McCarthy forced Lyndon Johnson into retirement in 1968, she will have to sit out the 2008 contest.

Proof positive that toe jam kills brain cells.

[RSmithOpt]

Kerry needs Hillary on the ticket. A vice presidential candidacy by her would turn his campaign into a crusade and would energize her supporters to a fever pitch. It would summon all the good memories of the Clinton prosperity without the bad reminders of Monica, et. al. Terrible thought, but a definite possibility...... "Toe jamb" is deadly.....

[tm22721]

With Hitlary as VP, his life expectancy would be limited.

Quote of the day.

BUMP

[Neets]

Morris predicted HundredPoundThighs would not run for Senate.

When she did, he predicted she wouldn't win.

Bet the opposite of whatever Toesey predicts

[Prodigal Son]

I just can't picture Kerry and Clinton on the same ticket together. Kerry would have to be a fool (well- ok) to have her on the ticket.

I like the idea better of the Clintons trying to undermine his campaign to ensure that he loses.

[sport]

That is what my money says.

If kerry is elected, the people who voted for him will never have had it so good by 2008.

All narcotic drugs will be legal or at the least, their use winked at.

Any sex act will be legal, no matter how vile and repugnant.

All law abiding citizens will have been disarmed leaving them easy pickings for robbers and rapists.

All talk radio shows such as Rush Limbaugh and Neal Boortz will have been shut down.

Internet forums such as Free Republic will have been shut down.

They will be getting a government check each month.

They will be given the houses og people who are not members of the Party.

They will be given free medical treatment each time they contract a veneral disease.

They will be given free abortions.

Like I said the people who vote for john kerry will have it made.

The other people will not have it so good at all, in fact, life will be a living hell for them.

[Dubh_Ghlase]

Hmm...Think about this:

HRC becomes VP and the dems win the WH. THe new potus "has an accident", and HRC is #1. Quick & dirty path to the presidency and its ultimate power...the clinton way...