Posted on 03/03/2004 9:59:02 PM PST by Jean S
Here’s a question: If you ask Americans which presidential candidate, George W. Bush or John F. Kerry, stands up to special interest groups, whom do they pick?
Of course most people would choose Senator John “We’re coming, you’re going, and don’t let the door hit you on the way out” Kerry — right?
Wrong.
In a Gallup Poll taken in mid-February, 45 percent of those surveyed said the phrase “stands up to special-interest groups” applies to President Bush, while 44 percent said it applies to Sen. Kerry (D-Mass.).
Of course, that’s a virtual tie, but one would think that after months of Kerry’s tough talk about fighting those “powerful interests” in Washington, people would get the message.
So far, however, they’re not really buying it.
The poll also contains some unwelcome news for the Kerry strategy of answering virtually every criticism with a reminder that he served in Vietnam.
Gallup asked whether Bush and Kerry each “did his duty for the country during the Vietnam War.”
To no one’s surprise, 68 percent said Kerry, the decorated Navy officer, did his duty, while 42 percent said Bush did his.
But it might surprise Kerry — and the Democratic surrogates who tout the candidate’s chest full of medals — to learn that Kerry’s service might not help him much when it comes time to vote.
When Gallup asked whether Kerry’s combat experience “makes you more likely or less likely to vote for him — or will it not have much effect on your vote?” 79 percent said it would not have much effect.
Just 17 percent said it would make them more likely to vote for Kerry.
On the other hand, as much as Republicans might wish it were otherwise, Kerry might not be hurt by his antiwar activism after returning home from the war.
Sixty-nine percent of those polled said Kerry’s protests would not have much effect on their vote, while just 16 percent said it would make them less likely to vote for Kerry.
By the way, the people polled by Gallup didn’t care much about Bush’s service in the National Guard, either; 81 percent said it would not have much effect on their vote.
In addition to the questions about special interests and Vietnam, Gallup asked whether the following descriptions apply to Bush and Kerry:
Is each man “honest and trustworthy?” Does he “share your values?” Does he “generally agree with you on issues you care about?” Does he have a “strong moral character?” And is he “a strong and decisive leader?”
Bush won big on the “strong moral character” question. Seventy-two percent of respondents said Bush has strong moral character, while 62 percent said that of Kerry.
Bush also won the “strong and decisive leader” question. Sixty-five percent said that label applied to the president, while 59 percent said it applied to Kerry.
But Kerry came out ahead in some important areas.
He beat Bush, 61 percent to 55 percent, on the “honest and trustworthy” question — not really a surprise, given all the whacking, including a Time magazine cover story, that Bush has taken over his alleged “credibility problem.”
Kerry also beat Bush, 52 percent to 47 percent, on the “agree with you on issues you care about” question.
And he edged out Bush, 53 percent to 52 percent, on the “share your values” issue.
Finally, on the simple question of whether voters have a favorable or unfavorable impression of the candidate — whether they like him or not — Kerry came out with a 60 percent favorable rating to Bush’s 56 percent.
The president’s much-discussed ad campaign starts today. There will, of course, be lots of positive images of George W. Bush as a leader.
But if it’s true that the more people get to know Kerry, the more they dislike him, the Bush campaign has a pretty simple job: Help voters get to know Kerry.
People tell pollsters they are following the campaign pretty closely — in the Gallup Poll, 60 percent said they have given it quite a lot of thought.
But most haven’t heard much of what the Bush campaign will be saying about Kerry.
While it might seem stunning to regular viewers of Fox, CNN and MSNBC, most people don’t know much about Kerry’s Senate votes against a wide array of weapons systems — many of which are now being used in Iraq, Afghanistan, and elsewhere.
They don’t know much about his crusade to cut the intelligence services in the mid-1990s.
They don’t know much about his inexplicable decision to vote against Gulf War I and for Gulf War II — and then against Gulf War II reconstruction.
People know Bush. They know his record.
Kerry, even though he is a Washington veteran, is the new guy on the national scene.
There’s a lot to tell the voters about him. And that’s what the Bush ads should do.
| Byron York is a White House correspondent for National Review. His column appears in The Hill each week. E-mail: byork@thehill.com |
I'll wager that sixty-eight percent of those polled never heard of Kerry before Monday, and don't know the real depth of his "protest"...
Hey, isn't the media supposed to keep us informed on the candidates? How come Bush has to purchase air time to do it?
(Sigh) I guess to ask the question is to answer it.
Eventually, his arrogance will do him in. Watch him closely, see how his impersonal nature contrasted with Edwards in recent debates, and how people in Minnesota and Wisconsin supported Edwards, even after their midwestern brothers and sisters in Iowa huddled together and designated Kerry the Anybody But Bush Sour Grapes candidate, and the other states toed the line.
Edwards did best in states that pride themselves on their independency because they demanded something more than Anybody But Bush, and were turned off by Kerry's impersonal, arrogant nature.
Not too soon, though. Keep in mind that all these poll numbers are coming out after a non-stop, 24x7 dem media extravaganza. The best they can do now with all the free advertising is basically come equal with Bush. The republicans have barely fired a salvo and the dems, despite their best efforts, can barely keep neck-and-neck with him.
I'm reminded of the movie Seabiscuit where the jockey would let the other horse get neck-and-neck and then turn it on at the homestretch when it counted. Let the dems expend their energy (and money) early. Kerry's got a lot of skeletons--he's sitting in the middle of a minefield and Bush is standing at the edge with a pocketful of rocks. Let's let him sweat a while.
I'll be honest. If someone asked me to take a poll and this was the first question, I'd just walk away.
I just sounds so stupid.
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