In a prime position to be first president (John Howard as First President for Australia!)

Sydney Morning Herald ^ | February 24, 2004 | Paddy McGuinness

[NZerFromHK]

It is still not certain that there will be a federal election this year, nor that John Howard will be contesting it. Despite the undisguised glee among the anti-Howard brigade, nor is it at all sure that Mark Latham will be looking like a winner at the next election.

It is true that he has brought a welcome fresh face to the leadership of the Opposition and might prove to be a future Labor prime minister, but he has yet to prove either his staying power, his stability or his self-control.

Certainly, too, Latham has been an enormous morale booster for the Labor Party, which had almost resigned itself to another defeat under Crean or Beazley. The Left has suspended its usual spoiling operations in the hope of getting its hands on a share in ministerial power and patronage (to be abused as usual).

The Right, equally, has suspended its internal squabbling in the same hope. But above all Howard has been rudely reminded of what he knows well enough in theory - that there are no sure electoral outcomes. While he was supremely confident last July when he turned 64, when he had earlier said he would take stock, he is no longer so confident.

So he must be contemplating the possibility of announcing, on his 65th birthday, that he will stand down immediately in favour of his heir apparent, Peter Costello. That would solve two problems.

One, he would be able to retire by his own choosing, with full honours from his party and a future secure as one of our most successful prime ministers. Second, Costello, who is suffering from the same kind of frustration as did Paul Keating when he looked like being eclipsed indefinitely by Bob Hawke, would achieve his heart's desire, to be prime minister, and would face off against a man virtually his own age, thus evading the current wave of ageism among the political class, who think that anyone older than they are is too old and ought to get out of the way.

It would be by no means certain that Costello would win the subsequent election - which does not have to take place until March next year. Latham is in there with a chance, and in any case now that Labor has a potentially effective leader it is about time that there was a change in government.

It is doubtful whether Costello would mind too much if he lost a March 2005 election respectably. He would have entered the history books at least as a prime minister, no small addition to one's curriculum vitae, and could depart Parliament to pick up his legal practice and before long enjoy appointment to the Victorian Supreme Court or more.

His most likely successor of course would be Tony Abbott, who has matured visibly and considerably over the past few years (unlike his critics in the press gallery) and who would undoubtedly be a match for Latham even if the latter should live up to the fondest hopes for him; with solid ministerial experience under Abbott's belt a Coalition opposition would be a lively and real alternative government.

A couple of terms for Labor would then be the most they could hope for. Much the same is true even if Costello should survive March 2005 (or earlier) and achieve election in his own right.

If Malcolm Turnbull manages to seize the seat of Wentworth in the near future he will prove a thorn in the side of a Coalition government, but little more.

And what of the long-term future for Howard? Costello, as a republican, is more likely to initiate steps towards a more sensible process to that end than did the Turnbull republicans last time round. Even if he were only in power a few months, he could claim the initiative, which would be completed by a Latham Labor government.

And, when and if Tony Abbott becomes prime minister, who would be a more obvious president of Australia than his old friend and mentor John Howard, by then perhaps a healthy 75?

[NZerFromHK]

Mark Latham seems to be similar to Canada's Paul Martin, perhaps even more pro-US (he agrees that Australia should join the US's missile shield plan, while Paul Martin would never agree with that).

[Piefloater]

Whilst he certainly has taken a few steps to the right I'm pretty sure Latham is opposed to any missile shield involvement.

See third last paragraph of link -

http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2004/02/24/1077594824247.html

[Dundee]

Mark Latham seems to be similar to Canada's Paul Martin, perhaps even more pro-US (he agrees that Australia should join the US's missile shield plan, while Paul Martin would never agree with that).

I'm not sure where you're getting your info from but Latham is VERY anti-American. He's called Bush "the most dangerous man alive", he's publically announced that he'd have nothing to do with missile defence, he has also said that the FTA with the United States would not have been signed if he was PM and that Australia would not have sent troops to Iraq to oust Saddam without the UN's approval.

Latham is a left wing thug (but still better that Helen Clarke).

[Heatseeker]

I don't know Costello - what's he like? Would he stick wth the Howard line on the war against Islamic terrorism?

I assume the Treasurer holds a seat - what riding? (As you can see I don't know much about a lot more than the Hon. Mr. Costello.)

[Dundee]

I don't know Costello - what's he like? Would he stick with the Howard line on the war against Islamic terrorism?

Costello is slightly to the left of Howard on social matters but to the right of Howard economically (not by much, is kinda like the difference between Bush and Rice, and Bush and Greenspan), but I'm pretty sure Costello would keep the line on terrorism.

Unlike the US, only members of parliament can hold ministerial positions (such as Treasurer, Defence Minister, Foreign Minister, Prime Minister, etc...)

[Heatseeker]

Dundee, thanks for the input. Sounds like he's OK.

[Piefloater]

I don't know Costello - what's he like? Would he stick with the Howard line on the war against Islamic terrorism?

Only time will tell but I would think that Costello would stick pretty much to the Howard line on most things except on the issue of Australia becoming a republic (Howard is a monarchist, Costello favors the republic). There's little doubt Costello would continue Australia's involvement is the war against the Islamists.

His deputy prime minister would almost certainly be a guy named Tony Abbott which means Australia would be run by Abbott & Costello.

[NZerFromHK]

So he has made a turn-around then? I thought he is for the missile shield programme after reading an article in The Australian back in Dec:

http://theaustralian.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5744,8194430%255E25377,00.html

That he was silent back in Dec seemed to be a tactical support. Well, maybe time's changed.

[Cronos]

I don't know Costello - what's he like?

Abbot? Abbot? I've been a baaaaad boy.....

[Heatseeker]

His deputy prime minister would almost certainly be a guy named Tony Abbott which means Australia would be run by Abbott & Costello.

Abbott & Costello - oh yeah, I'm feeling real good about that. :)

[Dundee]

Abbott & Costello - oh yeah, I'm feeling real good about that. :)

I'd much rather Abbott & Costello than Kerry & Edwards (or Clinton & Kennedy).

I feel like a need a shower just for typing that.

Unclean... UNCLEAN!

[Piefloater]

I'd much rather Abbott & Costello than Kerry & Edwards (or Clinton & Kennedy).

Or Latham & Whoever for that matter. But I guess that pretty much goes without saying.

[Dundee]

Or Latham & Whoever for that matter.

Speaking of which, who IS the deputy looser, er, leader of the ALP?

[Heatseeker]

Unclean... UNCLEAN!

Come to think of it, Kerry's face does sort of look like the face of a late-stage leper.

[Cronos]

Bye Bye Queenie.

With this the final nail gets driven into the long defunct British Empire. Also, from next year the Honours roll will be reduced, there will be no Knights of the British Empire oe the ORder of the empire (OBE) or whatever.... the Knights of the Garter will remain (been there since het 13centruy, what do you expec'!)

Now the British Empire will consist of:

1. The UK
2. Northern Ireland.
3. Bermuda
4. The Falkland Islands
5. Pitcairn Island
6. The Channel Islands
7. Diego Garcia
8. Gibraltar.

[GreenLanternCorps]

Cronos,

The Queen is not out of Australia yet, not by a long shot. The Labor party may be republican, but most Liberal and National voters are loyal to the crown, or at least suspicious of monkeying with the Austrialian constitution for cosmetic reasons.

Remember in the last referendum, the republic proposal DID NOT WIN A SINGLE STATE! IIRC you have to win four out of six states and a majority of the national vote to pass an amendment.

Also regardless of the national vote, the Crown in the indivdual states is constitutionally separate. So Australia could become a republic but some or all of the states could remain monarchies.

One other thing, that list you gave was the UK and it's overseas territories.

The Queen remains soverign in her own right in many separate realms including:

Canada
New Zealand
Jamaica
The Bahamas
Barbados
Grenada
St. Vincent and the Grenadines
Belize
The Solomon Islands
Papua New Guinea

[Piefloater]

And the deputy loser of the ALP is.................

Jenny Macklin, Member for Jagajaga

[NZerFromHK]

Seriously enough, how electable is the ALP in the coming election? One Canada is enough for all of us in the world.

[Piefloater]

how electable is the ALP in the coming election?

If current polling is anything to go by they look like they are in with a good very good chance. See article in today's SMH.

http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2004/03/03/1078191356982.html

I don't think Australia under the ALP would be quite the same as Canada. When they have gotten into power in the past they have generally adopted a very pro US stance and are very committed to maintaining a strong defence capability. Whilst I shudder at the thought of them gaining power, they would certainly be more palatable than the likes of Helen Clark.

[NZerFromHK]

Thanks for the information. I also saw the news of this poll in today's Channel 9 News (rebroadcasted at Prime here). It is reassuring that it appears the ALP still has some sense regarding defence and (some) foreign policies.

And I agree - it seems that Australia can never stomach the likes of Helen Clark or Pierre Trudeau as the PM. Sadly, most NZers think she is reasonable, middle-of-the-road type.