[presidio9]

[tkathy]

IMHO the reps absolutely must have poll watchers in all the big cities and even the small towns, to ensure that the debacle of 2000 will not be repeated.

[onevoter]

One element that may come into play is that we won't have Janet Reno and her pollsters in place during this election. Hopefully the fraud in St. Louis and Milwaukee will not come into play this time around. That should help Republicans. A fair fight just doesn't seem to be the path the Democrats choose.

[mysonsfuture]

Very good article. Agree Florida goes Bush due to shifting demographics. However, believe New Mexico is a lock for dems but think West Virginia will go Bush. Either way very few states are truly in play. Also, while Kerry may be an idiot regarding destructive policies to America he tends to campaign well and will have the entire established press cheering for him. Dem insiders know Edwards would not even help Kerry take North Carolina (ala Al Gore/Tenn). Therefore, Kerry has to pick Gephart as a running mate in the hopes of capturing Missouri, which by itself could determine the outcome. All while Bush attempts to decide if he is or is not a believer in conservatism, which could well lead to many conservatives staying home or casting protest votes. Whatever the results, the country remains deeply divided.

[Clintonfatigued]

There are other senarios that are possible. Oregon (which went for Gore by some 6,800 votes) and Washington state, have the nation's highest unemployment. Kerry will have fun with that. Gore's near-victory in Florida was a fluke, and Bush will do better there in 2004. On the other hand, Bush's victory in West Virginia was also a fluke, and will probably go for Kerry. So Bush needs to carry a couple of Gore states to win. The three most important targets would be Minnesota (which is trending Repuiblican), Wisconsin (slowly drifting towards Republicans), and Pennsylvania. The best candidate Kerry could pick would be Evan Bayh of Indiana. He would put Indiana into play and help in Ohio. Ohio will be ground zero this year.

[KantianBurke]

Alabama - R
Alaska - R
Arizona - R
Arkansas - R
California - D
Colorado - R
Connecticut - D
Delaware - D
District of Columbia - D
Florida - R
Georgia - R
Hawaii - D
Idaho - R
Illinois - D
Indiana - R
Iowa - D
Kansas - R
Kentucky - R
Louisiana - R
Maine - D
Maryland - D
Massachusetts - D
Michigan - D
Minnesota - D
Mississippi - R
Missouri - D
Montana - R
Nebraska - R
Nevada - R
New Hampshire - R
New Jersey - D
New Mexico - D
New York - D
North Carolina - R
North Dakota - R
Ohio - D
Oklahoma - R
Oregon - D
Pennsylvania - D
Rhode Island - D
South Carolina - R
South Dakota - R
Tennessee - R
Texas - R
Utah - R
Vermont - D
Virginia - R
Washington - D
West Virginia - R
Wisconsin - D
Wyoming - R

Electoral Totals: Rat gets 291, Bush gets 247. If Dubya signs the AWB and Kerry picks a "working class advocate" (who brings in OH and MO) for VP, this result coming to pass becomes quite possible.

http://www.archives.gov/federal_register/electoral_college/calculator.html

[Holden Magroin]

I think Ohio and Missouri will fall to the Democrats; North and South Carolina will probably stay put in the Republican column. Jobs are going to be the biggest issue in these states. Bush will need a miracle to win Pennsylvania and/or Michigan.

[staytrue]

I got bad news. The unemployment rate in Ohio is 6.2% and not improving. Ohio is going to be a knife fight in 2004 and will probably determine the election. And I think we still use punch cards. Get ready for another Florida.

[Betaille]

"Republicans have the opportunity to pick up seats in five southern states - North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida and Louisiana "

The Gay Marriage issue will KILL the democrats in those races. Ohio, Missouri, and other Industrial-midwestern swing-states also tend to be very socially conservative. Kerry has very limited maneuverability on gay marriage because Nader will hammer him if he moves on it. This issue will be the big winner for 2004... plus if Osama is captured this year Bush will probably be so popular that most of this electoral college speculation will probably be a waste of time.
P.S. West Virginia was not a fluke in 2000, Social Conservatism wins states like that.