[Betaille]

"Republicans have the opportunity to pick up seats in five southern states - North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida and Louisiana "

The Gay Marriage issue will KILL the democrats in those races. Ohio, Missouri, and other Industrial-midwestern swing-states also tend to be very socially conservative. Kerry has very limited maneuverability on gay marriage because Nader will hammer him if he moves on it. This issue will be the big winner for 2004... plus if Osama is captured this year Bush will probably be so popular that most of this electoral college speculation will probably be a waste of time.
P.S. West Virginia was not a fluke in 2000, Social Conservatism wins states like that.

[Meldrim]

"Osama" also looks to be the "D" nominee for senate if Illinois, meaning the R's may hold this seat.