He says this is a message to Republican Senators that the President doesn't want the AWB on his desk.
I have no idea how this is going to play out. I could easily see putting in the AWB renewal amendment so as to get sufficient Dem support to block any filibuster, and then stripping it out again in the inevitable conference committee. So I'm not going to scream and shout, yet.
But if Bush signs the AWB renewal, in any form, he's going to lose.
Depends on what it's attached to as an amendment. Funding authorization for DoD, or Homeland Security? The next dose of "Patriot Act" legislation. If it comes over from the Senate just before the Labor (or even Memorial) Day recess, they are likely to vote for it just so they can get back to their districts to campaign, provided it's attached to something else to give them "cover".
With Hastert as Speaker? Are you serious? If Karl Rove calls him and says "The President expects you to get your people in line and get the votes to pass this.", do you really believe that Hastert will say no?
I hope that you're right, but never underestimate the ability of elected officials to lose their spines in an election year.
Neither did CFR... hmmmmm.