Electoral College Breakdown, Installment Ten

Various

[Dales]

Due to popular demand, I am going to revive my poll tracking and analysis that I did during the 2000 election season. I will be starting things a bit differently this year. Instead of starting off with a comprehensive overview of the entire nation, I am going to start by looking at five states at a time. For this tenth installment, the remaining states: Tennessee, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Oklahoma, and the great state of Texas.

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Tennessee

Electoral Votes: 11

2000 Result

Bush 51%

Gore 47%

Background: Carter against Ford, Clinton twice (both times needing help from Perot), and Johnson. Republicans generally have had success here since Truman.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat
12/8/03	Mason-Dixon	Link	LV	4%	Bush	52%	Unnamed Democrat	37%
1/29/04	Mason-Dixon	NA	LV	5%	Bush	47%	Kerry	43%

Punditry: Kerry has enjoyed a nice bounce here, but the state still Leans for Bush.

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New Hampshire

Electoral Votes: 4

2000 Result

Bush 48%

Gore 47%

Background: Clinton won twice here, and the second time would have been even without Perot. The first time, he likely would have lost. Johnson won here. Other than that, Republican wins back through Dewey beating Truman. The elder Bush crushed the man who Kerry was Lt. Governor for, Mike Dukakis.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat
4/27/03	Franklin Pierce College	Link	600 RV	4%	Bush	42%	Unnamed Democrat	42%
9/11/03	American Research Group	Link	RV	4%	Bush	50%	Unnamed Democrat	36%
10/16/03	Research 2000	Link	RV	4%	Bush	51%	Kerry	39%
12/10/03	American Research Group	NA	RV	4%	Bush	50%	Unnamed Democrat	38%
10/16/03	Research 2000	Link	RV	4%	Bush	51%	Kerry	39%
1/20/04	Associated Press	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	55%	Kerry	40%
2/20/04	University of New Hampshire	Link	511 LV	4%	Bush	38%	Kerry	53%

Punditry: That last poll sure is different than the results all of the other polls done in the state have been showing. As such, I am treating it with extreme skepticism, especially since the American Research Group is really the poll to watch for NH (they are based there). Just to be cautious, I will designate New Hampshire a Slight Advantage for Bush, but if the next ARG poll shows the lead holding I will likely upgrade this rating.

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Wisconsin

Electoral Votes: 10

2000 Result

Gore 47.83%

Bush 47.61%

Background: I got the *BLEEP* kicked out of me in Wisconsin. Oh wait, sorry. Stripes flashback. Reagan won here twice. Nixon won here three times. LBJ and Carter (against Ford) won here, and then the Democrats have taken the last four elections here. The first of Clinton's wins would have been a loss for him without Perot.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat
5/03	Badger Poll	Link	LV	4%	Bush	53%	Unnamed Democrat	42%
10/28/03	Badger Poll	Link	LV	4%	Bush	46%	Unnamed Democrat	45%
1/27/04	Badger Poll	Link	LV	4%	Bush	38%	Unnamed Democrat	54%

Punditry: Quite a reversal in Bush's fortunes according to the polls here, especially considering it is the same polling company. Wisconsin is one of the states that is often considered a possible pickup for Bush this time, and his previous numbers show it is possible, but it will take quite a change from where things are right now, which is that the state Leans for the Democrats.

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Oklahoma

Electoral Votes: 7

2000 Result

Bush 60%

Gore 38%

Background: Republicans have won every election here since LBJ.

Polling Data: None available.

Punditry: Sooner country has put away their Texas animous for Presidential candidates, and this remains Safe for Bush.

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Texas

Electoral Votes: 34

2000 Result

Bush 58%

Gore 39%

Background: Carter and Humphrey won here, but Texas has become a very foreign land for the Democrat Presidential candidates.

Polling Data: None available.

Punditry: Texas is Safe for Bush. It is Bush country.

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Summary Table
	Bush					Democrat
	Safe	Strong	Lean	Slight	Tossup	Slight	Lean	Strong	Safe
	ND (3)	CO (9)	GA (15)	NV (5)	OR (7)	NM (5)	CA (55)	NY (31)	VT (3)
	AL (9)	SC (8)	NC (15)	FL (27)	WV (5)	ME (4)	WI (10)	DE (3)	MA (12)
	MT (3)	KY (8)	MO (11)	NJ (15)	-	MI (17)	-	MD (10)	DC (3)
	WY (3)	KS (6)	VA (13)	NH (4)	-	PA (21)	-	WA (11)	RI (4)
	UT (5)	MS (6)	OH (20)	-	-	IA (7)	-	CT (7)	HI (4)
	ID (4)	SD (3)	IN (11)	-	-	MN (10)	-	IL (21)	-
	AK (3)	LA (9)	AZ (10)	-	-	-	-	-	-
	NE (5)	-	AR (6)	-	-	-	-	-	-
	OK (7)	-	TN (11)	-	-	-	-	-	-
	TX (34)	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Designation Total:	76	49	112	51	12	64	65	83	26
Candidate Total:	237			127			174

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Next installment: A closer look at the battleground states, and updates to a few states that have new polls.

Historical election data are located at Dave Leip's invaluable website.

Installment One
Installment Two
Installment Three
Installment Four
Installment Five
Installment Six
Installment Seven
Installment Eight
Installment Nine

[wylenetheconservative]

Yeah, looks like Bush took 54% of the 2-party vote in the Metro area. A solid victory.

[Torie]

Another way to look at it, is that five heavily GOP counties have been wiped off the map, and are not within the Columbus metro area, and comfort us that Bush still can win there by a bit. At that rate, Ohio won't have any rural or small town counties left. They will all be sucked up into metro districts, except largely unpopulated outliers.

[wylenetheconservative]

I didn't append them, the U.S. Census bureau did. I see your point though. Franklin county used to provide a margin for the GOP itself. Is liberalism on the rise at Ohio State?

[Torie]

Well the city as acquried some culturally liberal neighborhoods, ala metro areas in the Northeast and the Pacific Coast, and Chicago, etc. Someone said, it had the largest gay population in Ohio. I don't know about that.

[wylenetheconservative]

Due to the suburbanization and exburbanization of America, most small town communities that are anywhere near a city are becoming bedroom communities as people flee the cities and the horrible school districts in them.

[KQQL]

What about Vitter's seat, I think that's a GOP hold..

Not sure about Tauzin's seat, probably a toss up to a slight gop lean...

[Dan from Michigan]

I noticed that. Not much politically surprises me anymore.

I really hope it's not a tie. It'll be interesting, but I'll probably lose my hair in the aftermath.

[Torie]

Yep

[KQQL]

[JohnnyZ]

The advantage in delegations is almost as big as the advantage in overall seats.

Republicans naturally control a lot of small mountain/west/plains states, plus they still have RINOs hanging on in providing the majority in places like Connecticut and Delaware.

[LdSentinal]

In 1992, Clinton won Ohio by just 2% with perot taking a good chunk of the electorate. While in 1995, Dole lost the national vote by 8.5%, but lost Ohio by 6% with Perot taking 11% of the vote.

Despite Ohio's economic foils, it's certainly not as bad as it was in 1992 -- and the state has been trending more to the Republican side, mainly due to the bleeding of Northeast Ohio.

[KQQL]

GOP is a majority in the Senate/house thanks to RINOS....

[Torie]

The odd thing, is that Clinton and Carter won Ohio not because of the swing in NE Ohio, but rather because of the swing in the Copperhead territory along the Ohio River outside of the Cinci metro area.

[WFTR]

Where can I find the actual results from each state in the '92 election? I wanted to do my own guesses of Perot's impact, but I couldn't find any site that gave the totals in each state.

[LdSentinal]

I guess Southern Ohio likes candidates with Southern accents. I wonder how they will react to a New Englander accent.

[JohnnyZ]

Historical election data are located at Dave Leip's invaluable website.

See the link at the bottom of Dales' post.

[KQQL]

RE: LA

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Even as McCrery finalizes his decision, a number of names are already being considered for a possible replacement. Among the most talked about are Shreveport Mayor Keith Hightower, a Democrat, and Caddo Parish Sheriff Steve Prator, a Republican.

Prator said McCrery met with him in his office on Friday. "We discussed several things. Should he decide not to run, I will consider it, but it's in the early stages of consideration.
http://www.shreveporttimes.com/html/7B57EE0C-8C4C-4B6F-B06C-04403E39C590.shtml

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Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics, called it disaster for Louisiana if McCrery were to be added to the losses the state already faces in seniority among its seven congressmen and two senators.

[JohnnyZ]

Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics, called it disaster for Louisiana if McCrery were to be added to the losses the state already faces in seniority among its seven congressmen and two senators.

Yeah yeah, they gotta go at some point, right? and the new guys will start building up seniority of their own.

[KQQL]

Looks like LA 3 will open up soon too..

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Possible candidates swarm in 3rd District

http://www.2theadvocate.com/stories/021904/new_candidates001.shtml

[WOSG]

"Coattails are largely history, and reverse coattails are well, whatever. "

I think you are wrong. If Bush/Cheney implement and execute 72 hour GOTV, then it will look like coattails, but it will realyl be TURNOUT. Either way, a big Bush win will mean some senators getting elected. eg Georgia, NC, Florida.