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Electoral College Breakdown, Installment Ten
Various

Posted on 02/22/2004 5:24:26 PM PST by Dales

Edited on 02/23/2004 3:48:05 AM PST by Admin Moderator. [history]

Due to popular demand, I am going to revive my poll tracking and analysis that I did during the 2000 election season. I will be starting things a bit differently this year. Instead of starting off with a comprehensive overview of the entire nation, I am going to start by looking at five states at a time. For this tenth installment, the remaining states: Tennessee, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Oklahoma, and the great state of Texas.


Tennessee
Electoral Votes: 11
2000 Result
Bush 51%
Gore 47%

Background: Carter against Ford, Clinton twice (both times needing help from Perot), and Johnson. Republicans generally have had success here since Truman.

Polling Data:

Date Polling Company Link Type MOE Republican Democrat
12/8/03 Mason-Dixon Link LV 4% Bush 52% Unnamed Democrat 37%
1/29/04 Mason-Dixon NA LV 5% Bush 47% Kerry 43%

Punditry: Kerry has enjoyed a nice bounce here, but the state still Leans for Bush.


New Hampshire
Electoral Votes: 4
2000 Result
Bush 48%
Gore 47%

Background: Clinton won twice here, and the second time would have been even without Perot. The first time, he likely would have lost. Johnson won here. Other than that, Republican wins back through Dewey beating Truman. The elder Bush crushed the man who Kerry was Lt. Governor for, Mike Dukakis.

Polling Data:

Date Polling Company Link Type MOE Republican Democrat
4/27/03 Franklin Pierce College Link 600 RV 4% Bush 42% Unnamed Democrat 42%
9/11/03 American Research Group Link RV 4% Bush 50% Unnamed Democrat 36%
10/16/03 Research 2000 Link RV 4% Bush 51% Kerry 39%
12/10/03 American Research Group NA RV 4% Bush 50% Unnamed Democrat 38%
10/16/03 Research 2000 Link RV 4% Bush 51% Kerry 39%
1/20/04 Associated Press Link 600 LV 4% Bush 55% Kerry 40%
2/20/04 University of New Hampshire Link 511 LV 4% Bush 38% Kerry 53%

Punditry: That last poll sure is different than the results all of the other polls done in the state have been showing. As such, I am treating it with extreme skepticism, especially since the American Research Group is really the poll to watch for NH (they are based there). Just to be cautious, I will designate New Hampshire a Slight Advantage for Bush, but if the next ARG poll shows the lead holding I will likely upgrade this rating.


Wisconsin
Electoral Votes: 10
2000 Result
Gore 47.83%
Bush 47.61%

Background: I got the *BLEEP* kicked out of me in Wisconsin. Oh wait, sorry. Stripes flashback. Reagan won here twice. Nixon won here three times. LBJ and Carter (against Ford) won here, and then the Democrats have taken the last four elections here. The first of Clinton's wins would have been a loss for him without Perot.

Polling Data:

Date Polling Company Link Type MOE Republican Democrat
5/03 Badger Poll Link LV 4% Bush 53% Unnamed Democrat 42%
10/28/03 Badger Poll Link LV 4% Bush 46% Unnamed Democrat 45%
1/27/04 Badger Poll Link LV 4% Bush 38% Unnamed Democrat 54%

Punditry: Quite a reversal in Bush's fortunes according to the polls here, especially considering it is the same polling company. Wisconsin is one of the states that is often considered a possible pickup for Bush this time, and his previous numbers show it is possible, but it will take quite a change from where things are right now, which is that the state Leans for the Democrats.


Oklahoma
Electoral Votes: 7
2000 Result
Bush 60%
Gore 38%

Background: Republicans have won every election here since LBJ.

Polling Data: None available.

Punditry: Sooner country has put away their Texas animous for Presidential candidates, and this remains Safe for Bush.


Texas
Electoral Votes: 34
2000 Result
Bush 58%
Gore 39%

Background: Carter and Humphrey won here, but Texas has become a very foreign land for the Democrat Presidential candidates.

Polling Data: None available.

Punditry: Texas is Safe for Bush. It is Bush country.


Summary Table
  Bush Democrat
  Safe Strong Lean Slight Tossup Slight Lean Strong Safe
  ND (3) CO (9) GA (15) NV (5) OR (7) NM (5) CA (55) NY (31) VT (3)
  AL (9) SC (8) NC (15) FL (27) WV (5) ME (4) WI (10) DE (3) MA (12)
  MT (3) KY (8) MO (11) NJ (15) - MI (17) - MD (10) DC (3)
  WY (3) KS (6) VA (13) NH (4) - PA (21) - WA (11) RI (4)
  UT (5) MS (6) OH (20) - - IA (7) - CT (7) HI (4)
  ID (4) SD (3) IN (11) - - MN (10) - IL (21) -
  AK (3) LA (9) AZ (10) - - - - - -
  NE (5) - AR (6) - - - - - -
  OK (7) - TN (11) - - - - - -
  TX (34) - - - - - - - -
Designation
Total:
76 49 112 51 12 64 65 83 26
Candidate
Total:
237 127 174


Next installment: A closer look at the battleground states, and updates to a few states that have new polls.

Historical election data are located at Dave Leip's invaluable website.

Installment One
Installment Two
Installment Three
Installment Four
Installment Five
Installment Six
Installment Seven
Installment Eight
Installment Nine


TOPICS: Extended News; Politics/Elections; US: New Hampshire; US: Oklahoma; US: Tennessee; US: Texas; US: Wisconsin
KEYWORDS: dales; ecb; electionpresident; electoralcollege; gwb2004
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To: wylenetheconservative
Actually Bush lost Columbus, and Franklin County by a hair. Columbus is plugging into cultural liberalism chic. The Pubbies need big wins in the rural Counties (particulary the Virginia miliary reserve counties that don't have square sections (SE Ohio), plus the Cinci suburbs and that odd little solid GOP belt running north to the west of Dayton, to pull it out. What has really kept the GOP in the game, is that the Dem margins in the Cleveland Metro area have been stagnant, and declining slightly, as has the share of its vote of the state as a whole
101 posted on 02/22/2004 8:41:46 PM PST by Torie
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To: Dan from Michigan
WA will not and is not a battleground state......



102 posted on 02/22/2004 8:42:40 PM PST by KQQL (@)
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To: KQQL
I would think it would have to be. Considering the large Latino population, I would think it would be impossible for the 2 GOP congressmen and Senator Dominici to get elected without a large portion of the white vote. I sure don't think they are getting big chunks of the Latino vote.
103 posted on 02/22/2004 8:44:16 PM PST by wylenetheconservative (Max Cleland has exploited his sympathy for long enough)
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To: Torie
Bush won metro Columbus in a big way. He lost the city of Columbus narrowly, but just massacred Gore in the Columbus suburbs. I agree though about Cleveland, it is losing population and clout.
104 posted on 02/22/2004 8:46:26 PM PST by wylenetheconservative (Max Cleland and Larry Flynt are the same person)
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To: KQQL
However, I doubt W wins WI or MI

It'll be close here, that I can gaurantee.

I think the big fight in MI is whoever beats himself here. Kerry hurts himself with trade policies, an arrogant mouth, elitism, and his snubbing of Detroit completely in the primary. Bush's trade policy hurts him here.

Michigan report 1(old - straight 2000 numbers)

Michigan report 2(recent - 2002 numbers as well)

105 posted on 02/22/2004 8:47:06 PM PST by Dan from Michigan ("You know it don't come easy, the road of the gypsy" - Iron Eagle)
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To: jack gillis
Evenly divided delegations means there may not be a a majority of 26 to be had.

Republicans have a fairly safe lead in House delegations. By my count it's 31-15-3, with South Dakota TBD. It would take a Democrat wave to switch 6 delegations out of the GOP fold, and if there were a wave the electoral vote wouldn't be tied.

106 posted on 02/22/2004 8:49:40 PM PST by JohnnyZ (People don't just bump into each other and have sex. This isn't Cinemax! -- Jerry)
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To: wylenetheconservative
As soon as Senator Dominici retires, the seat will go RATS !

GOP got lucky with the Courts on the congressional map, that's why NM has 2 GOP memebers from NM+ NM had a LIB-Republican GOV, who vetoed RATS plan..

Remember NAdar was a big factor in NM....in 00...

Gore 286,783 48 %
Bush 286,417 48 % 29 0
Nader 21,251 4%
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2000/results/NM/frameset.exclude.html
107 posted on 02/22/2004 8:50:03 PM PST by KQQL (@)
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To: wylenetheconservative; Common Tator
Well Bush lost Franklin County narrowly, and the Columbus exurban spillover outside that county is limited. Look it up. The Columbus area is trending Dem. Just ask CT, the iconoclastic Ohioan par excellance, and commentator of many political things regarding voting patterns, not only within his state, but beyond. The guy was there to witness it all at the creation, and the remarkable thing is that the fossil is still in an animated state. Seize the moment to savor him
108 posted on 02/22/2004 8:51:11 PM PST by Torie
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To: Torie
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2000/results/OH/frameset.exclude.html

OH....link for 00 w/counties result
109 posted on 02/22/2004 8:52:55 PM PST by KQQL (@)
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Candidates Votes Vote % EV
Bush 2,294,167 50% 21
Gore 2,117,741 46% 0
Nader 114,482 3% 0
Buchanan 25,980 1% 0
110 posted on 02/22/2004 8:53:54 PM PST by KQQL (@)
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Candidates Votes Vote % EV
Bush 2,294,167 50% 21
Gore 2,117,741 46% 0
Nader 114,482 3% 0
Buchanan 25,980 1% 0


Hmmm. W won OH in 00 by 1-2% if you factor in Nadar and Pat's votes
111 posted on 02/22/2004 8:54:57 PM PST by KQQL (@)
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To: Torie
Franklin County and neighboring areas

COUNTY - Bush votes - Gore votes - Nader voters - Total voters - Bush% - Gore% - Nader%

Franklin (Columbus) 197862 202018 10702 413447 48% 49% 3%

Pickaway 10717 6598 276 17717 60% 37% 2%

Fairfield (Lancaster) 33523 19065 1115 54043 62% 35% 2%

Delaware 36639 17134 1212 55343 66% 31% 2%

Union 11502 5040 336 17013 68% 30% 2%

112 posted on 02/22/2004 8:57:59 PM PST by Dan from Michigan ("You know it don't come easy, the road of the gypsy" - Iron Eagle)
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To: JohnnyZ; Torie
YET ANOTHER BAYOU STATE RETIREMENT? It now looks like four of the seven Congressional seats in Louisiana this year may be open seat contests. Congressman

-------

EARLY RETIREMENT IN NEBRASKA. Congressman Doug Bereuter (R-NE) -- who previously revealed his plans to retire from Congress this year -- announced Friday that he will resign early from Congress on September 1, 2004, to become President of the Asia /
the late date will not require a special election.

------
http://politics1.com/
113 posted on 02/22/2004 8:58:03 PM PST by KQQL (@)
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To: Dan from Michigan
Yep, and many of the votes of the adjacent counties are not really in the Metro Columbus area. The place ain't Detroit. In a metro area the GOP used to carry handsomely, the margin has deteriorated to near nothing.
114 posted on 02/22/2004 9:00:17 PM PST by Torie
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To: Torie
The Columbus metro area has about 450K people outside of Franklin county. If you check out the results from those counties, you'll see that Bush just hammered Gore in those counties. Franklin County is trending Rat, but the suburban counties are trending R. For example, Bush carried Delaware county 36,639-17,134 and Fairfield County 33,523 - 19,065
http://serform.sos.state.oh.us/sos/results/index.html
115 posted on 02/22/2004 9:04:09 PM PST by wylenetheconservative (Max Cleland has exploited his sympathy for long enough)
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To: Dan from Michigan
It's outrageously ridiculously implausible considered probabilistically:

Setting aside all partisan feeling for the moment--imagine you're a USA citizen coming back from a 1,000 years in the future when all this is ancient history--in the last six years we've had an Impeachment, a hung state in the Electoral College resulting in a less than plurality President, a tied Senate with control resting on a single Senator's switch of caucus, and now we're staring straight down the barrel of a tied Electoral College. And that's only in our domestic political institutions, never mind the Global insanity.

I think I finally understand why "May you live in interesting times" is a curse.
116 posted on 02/22/2004 9:04:29 PM PST by jack gillis
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To: KQQL
OH dear, McCrery retiring puts another Pubbie seat (Shreveport) in serious play. In fact, the Dems might have an edge.
117 posted on 02/22/2004 9:06:15 PM PST by Torie
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To: Torie
According to the US Census Bureau, those counties constitute the Columbus metro area. Thats why I said Bush carried the Columbus metro area.

http://www.census.gov/population/estimates/metro-city/ma99-03a.txt

118 posted on 02/22/2004 9:06:18 PM PST by wylenetheconservative (Max Cleland has exploited his sympathy for long enough)
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To: JohnnyZ
Odd.

The advantage in delegations is almost as big as the advantage in overall seats.
119 posted on 02/22/2004 9:08:00 PM PST by jack gillis
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To: wylenetheconservative
Well, even if you append counties that really don't have a lot of folks that really live in Columbus suburbs, or exurbs, and live in small to medium sized towns that have been there since rocks cooled, what do you have? Maybe a 53% Bush margin?
120 posted on 02/22/2004 9:09:15 PM PST by Torie
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