 |
|---|
| Tennessee |
| Electoral Votes: 11 |
| 2000 Result |
| Bush 51% |
| Gore 47% |
Posted on 02/22/2004 5:24:26 PM PST by Dales
Edited on 02/23/2004 3:48:05 AM PST by Admin Moderator. [history]
Due to popular demand, I am going to revive my poll tracking and analysis that I did during the 2000 election season. I will be starting things a bit differently this year. Instead of starting off with a comprehensive overview of the entire nation, I am going to start by looking at five states at a time. For this tenth installment, the remaining states: Tennessee, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Oklahoma, and the great state of Texas.
| |
|---|
| Tennessee |
| Electoral Votes: 11 |
| 2000 Result |
| Bush 51% |
| Gore 47% |
Background: Carter against Ford, Clinton twice (both times needing help from Perot), and Johnson. Republicans generally have had success here since Truman.
Polling Data:
| Date | Polling Company | Link | Type | MOE | Republican | Democrat | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/8/03 | Mason-Dixon | Link | LV | 4% | Bush | 52% | Unnamed Democrat | 37% |
| 1/29/04 | Mason-Dixon | NA | LV | 5% | Bush | 47% | Kerry | 43% |
Punditry: Kerry has enjoyed a nice bounce here, but the state still Leans for Bush.
 |
|---|
| New Hampshire |
| Electoral Votes: 4 |
| 2000 Result |
| Bush 48% |
| Gore 47% |
Background: Clinton won twice here, and the second time would have been even without Perot. The first time, he likely would have lost. Johnson won here. Other than that, Republican wins back through Dewey beating Truman. The elder Bush crushed the man who Kerry was Lt. Governor for, Mike Dukakis.
Polling Data:
| Date | Polling Company | Link | Type | MOE | Republican | Democrat | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4/27/03 | Franklin Pierce College | Link | 600 RV | 4% | Bush | 42% | Unnamed Democrat | 42% |
| 9/11/03 | American Research Group | Link | RV | 4% | Bush | 50% | Unnamed Democrat | 36% |
| 10/16/03 | Research 2000 | Link | RV | 4% | Bush | 51% | Kerry | 39% |
| 12/10/03 | American Research Group | NA | RV | 4% | Bush | 50% | Unnamed Democrat | 38% |
| 10/16/03 | Research 2000 | Link | RV | 4% | Bush | 51% | Kerry | 39% |
| 1/20/04 | Associated Press | Link | 600 LV | 4% | Bush | 55% | Kerry | 40% |
| 2/20/04 | University of New Hampshire | Link | 511 LV | 4% | Bush | 38% | Kerry | 53% |
Punditry: That last poll sure is different than the results all of the other polls done in the state have been showing. As such, I am treating it with extreme skepticism, especially since the American Research Group is really the poll to watch for NH (they are based there). Just to be cautious, I will designate New Hampshire a Slight Advantage for Bush, but if the next ARG poll shows the lead holding I will likely upgrade this rating.
 |
|---|
| Wisconsin |
| Electoral Votes: 10 |
| 2000 Result |
| Gore 47.83% |
| Bush 47.61% |
Background: I got the *BLEEP* kicked out of me in Wisconsin. Oh wait, sorry. Stripes flashback. Reagan won here twice. Nixon won here three times. LBJ and Carter (against Ford) won here, and then the Democrats have taken the last four elections here. The first of Clinton's wins would have been a loss for him without Perot.
Polling Data:
| Date | Polling Company | Link | Type | MOE | Republican | Democrat | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/03 | Badger Poll | Link | LV | 4% | Bush | 53% | Unnamed Democrat | 42% |
| 10/28/03 | Badger Poll | Link | LV | 4% | Bush | 46% | Unnamed Democrat | 45% |
| 1/27/04 | Badger Poll | Link | LV | 4% | Bush | 38% | Unnamed Democrat | 54% |
Punditry: Quite a reversal in Bush's fortunes according to the polls here, especially considering it is the same polling company. Wisconsin is one of the states that is often considered a possible pickup for Bush this time, and his previous numbers show it is possible, but it will take quite a change from where things are right now, which is that the state Leans for the Democrats.
 |
|---|
| Oklahoma |
| Electoral Votes: 7 |
| 2000 Result |
| Bush 60% |
| Gore 38% |
Background: Republicans have won every election here since LBJ.
Polling Data: None available.
Punditry: Sooner country has put away their Texas animous for Presidential candidates, and this remains Safe for Bush.
 |
|---|
| Texas |
| Electoral Votes: 34 |
| 2000 Result |
| Bush 58% |
| Gore 39% |
Background: Carter and Humphrey won here, but Texas has become a very foreign land for the Democrat Presidential candidates.
Polling Data: None available.
Punditry: Texas is Safe for Bush. It is Bush country.
| Summary Table | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bush | Democrat | ||||||||
| Safe | Strong | Lean | Slight | Tossup | Slight | Lean | Strong | Safe | |
| ND (3) | CO (9) | GA (15) | NV (5) | OR (7) | NM (5) | CA (55) | NY (31) | VT (3) | |
| AL (9) | SC (8) | NC (15) | FL (27) | WV (5) | ME (4) | WI (10) | DE (3) | MA (12) | |
| MT (3) | KY (8) | MO (11) | NJ (15) | - | MI (17) | - | MD (10) | DC (3) | |
| WY (3) | KS (6) | VA (13) | NH (4) | - | PA (21) | - | WA (11) | RI (4) | |
| UT (5) | MS (6) | OH (20) | - | - | IA (7) | - | CT (7) | HI (4) | |
| ID (4) | SD (3) | IN (11) | - | - | MN (10) | - | IL (21) | - | |
| AK (3) | LA (9) | AZ (10) | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
| NE (5) | - | AR (6) | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
| OK (7) | - | TN (11) | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
| TX (34) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
| Designation Total: |
76 | 49 | 112 | 51 | 12 | 64 | 65 | 83 | 26 |
| Candidate Total: |
237 | 127 | 174 | ||||||
Next installment: A closer look at the battleground states, and updates to a few states that have new polls.
Historical election data are located at Dave Leip's invaluable website.
Installment One
Installment Two
Installment Three
Installment Four
Installment Five
Installment Six
Installment Seven
Installment Eight
Installment Nine
This could be close...
or we could have OBL's head on a pike and/or the economy charging ahead and Bush wins in a land-slide.
It's only February and the GOP hasn't even started to spend money. This should be okay.
I do think there was a lot of ticket splitting, and that the dems had strong candidates.
Stabenow ran once for governor(lost in primary), beat an incumbent for congress(my district before redistricting was about 51-49 dem), and is a strong campaigner. Mike Rogers(my rep now) is also a strong candidate and pulled off the win for the open seat in 2000. Redistricting was kind to him and his district is now about 52-53% republican.
Ben Nelson was elected statewide in Florida. Tom Carper was a governor(best type of candidate you can have). Carnahan was a governor, and Maria Cantwell has a ton of money.
But thats just MHO and you know as well as I that I my animus toward Mr Kerry is deep and long running. Hard to be objective actually. It was easier with Gore and Clinton.
As my map is now(286 W, 252 Kerry) if I'm right on every state except Michigan, we have a tie.
Of the 'battleground states'(where I expect a good fight) - I have Oregon, Wash St, Nevada(somewhat of an upset), Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, West Va, Maine(both districts), and New Hampshire going dem.
And New Mex, Arizona, Colorado, Arkansas, Missouri, Louisiana, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia(sleeper), Ohio, and Michigan(my other upset) going GOP.
If it's Edwards, I expect it even tougher.
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