Electoral College Breakdown, Installment Ten

Various

[Dales]

Due to popular demand, I am going to revive my poll tracking and analysis that I did during the 2000 election season. I will be starting things a bit differently this year. Instead of starting off with a comprehensive overview of the entire nation, I am going to start by looking at five states at a time. For this tenth installment, the remaining states: Tennessee, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Oklahoma, and the great state of Texas.

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Tennessee

Electoral Votes: 11

2000 Result

Bush 51%

Gore 47%

Background: Carter against Ford, Clinton twice (both times needing help from Perot), and Johnson. Republicans generally have had success here since Truman.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat
12/8/03	Mason-Dixon	Link	LV	4%	Bush	52%	Unnamed Democrat	37%
1/29/04	Mason-Dixon	NA	LV	5%	Bush	47%	Kerry	43%

Punditry: Kerry has enjoyed a nice bounce here, but the state still Leans for Bush.

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New Hampshire

Electoral Votes: 4

2000 Result

Bush 48%

Gore 47%

Background: Clinton won twice here, and the second time would have been even without Perot. The first time, he likely would have lost. Johnson won here. Other than that, Republican wins back through Dewey beating Truman. The elder Bush crushed the man who Kerry was Lt. Governor for, Mike Dukakis.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat
4/27/03	Franklin Pierce College	Link	600 RV	4%	Bush	42%	Unnamed Democrat	42%
9/11/03	American Research Group	Link	RV	4%	Bush	50%	Unnamed Democrat	36%
10/16/03	Research 2000	Link	RV	4%	Bush	51%	Kerry	39%
12/10/03	American Research Group	NA	RV	4%	Bush	50%	Unnamed Democrat	38%
10/16/03	Research 2000	Link	RV	4%	Bush	51%	Kerry	39%
1/20/04	Associated Press	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	55%	Kerry	40%
2/20/04	University of New Hampshire	Link	511 LV	4%	Bush	38%	Kerry	53%

Punditry: That last poll sure is different than the results all of the other polls done in the state have been showing. As such, I am treating it with extreme skepticism, especially since the American Research Group is really the poll to watch for NH (they are based there). Just to be cautious, I will designate New Hampshire a Slight Advantage for Bush, but if the next ARG poll shows the lead holding I will likely upgrade this rating.

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Wisconsin

Electoral Votes: 10

2000 Result

Gore 47.83%

Bush 47.61%

Background: I got the *BLEEP* kicked out of me in Wisconsin. Oh wait, sorry. Stripes flashback. Reagan won here twice. Nixon won here three times. LBJ and Carter (against Ford) won here, and then the Democrats have taken the last four elections here. The first of Clinton's wins would have been a loss for him without Perot.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat
5/03	Badger Poll	Link	LV	4%	Bush	53%	Unnamed Democrat	42%
10/28/03	Badger Poll	Link	LV	4%	Bush	46%	Unnamed Democrat	45%
1/27/04	Badger Poll	Link	LV	4%	Bush	38%	Unnamed Democrat	54%

Punditry: Quite a reversal in Bush's fortunes according to the polls here, especially considering it is the same polling company. Wisconsin is one of the states that is often considered a possible pickup for Bush this time, and his previous numbers show it is possible, but it will take quite a change from where things are right now, which is that the state Leans for the Democrats.

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Oklahoma

Electoral Votes: 7

2000 Result

Bush 60%

Gore 38%

Background: Republicans have won every election here since LBJ.

Polling Data: None available.

Punditry: Sooner country has put away their Texas animous for Presidential candidates, and this remains Safe for Bush.

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Texas

Electoral Votes: 34

2000 Result

Bush 58%

Gore 39%

Background: Carter and Humphrey won here, but Texas has become a very foreign land for the Democrat Presidential candidates.

Polling Data: None available.

Punditry: Texas is Safe for Bush. It is Bush country.

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Summary Table
	Bush					Democrat
	Safe	Strong	Lean	Slight	Tossup	Slight	Lean	Strong	Safe
	ND (3)	CO (9)	GA (15)	NV (5)	OR (7)	NM (5)	CA (55)	NY (31)	VT (3)
	AL (9)	SC (8)	NC (15)	FL (27)	WV (5)	ME (4)	WI (10)	DE (3)	MA (12)
	MT (3)	KY (8)	MO (11)	NJ (15)	-	MI (17)	-	MD (10)	DC (3)
	WY (3)	KS (6)	VA (13)	NH (4)	-	PA (21)	-	WA (11)	RI (4)
	UT (5)	MS (6)	OH (20)	-	-	IA (7)	-	CT (7)	HI (4)
	ID (4)	SD (3)	IN (11)	-	-	MN (10)	-	IL (21)	-
	AK (3)	LA (9)	AZ (10)	-	-	-	-	-	-
	NE (5)	-	AR (6)	-	-	-	-	-	-
	OK (7)	-	TN (11)	-	-	-	-	-	-
	TX (34)	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Designation Total:	76	49	112	51	12	64	65	83	26
Candidate Total:	237			127			174

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Next installment: A closer look at the battleground states, and updates to a few states that have new polls.

Historical election data are located at Dave Leip's invaluable website.

Installment One
Installment Two
Installment Three
Installment Four
Installment Five
Installment Six
Installment Seven
Installment Eight
Installment Nine

[Torie]

Actually Bush lost Columbus, and Franklin County by a hair. Columbus is plugging into cultural liberalism chic. The Pubbies need big wins in the rural Counties (particulary the Virginia miliary reserve counties that don't have square sections (SE Ohio), plus the Cinci suburbs and that odd little solid GOP belt running north to the west of Dayton, to pull it out. What has really kept the GOP in the game, is that the Dem margins in the Cleveland Metro area have been stagnant, and declining slightly, as has the share of its vote of the state as a whole

[KQQL]

WA will not and is not a battleground state......

[wylenetheconservative]

I would think it would have to be. Considering the large Latino population, I would think it would be impossible for the 2 GOP congressmen and Senator Dominici to get elected without a large portion of the white vote. I sure don't think they are getting big chunks of the Latino vote.

[wylenetheconservative]

Bush won metro Columbus in a big way. He lost the city of Columbus narrowly, but just massacred Gore in the Columbus suburbs. I agree though about Cleveland, it is losing population and clout.

[Dan from Michigan]

However, I doubt W wins WI or MI

It'll be close here, that I can gaurantee.

I think the big fight in MI is whoever beats himself here. Kerry hurts himself with trade policies, an arrogant mouth, elitism, and his snubbing of Detroit completely in the primary. Bush's trade policy hurts him here.

Michigan report 1(old - straight 2000 numbers)

Michigan report 2(recent - 2002 numbers as well)

[JohnnyZ]

Evenly divided delegations means there may not be a a majority of 26 to be had.

Republicans have a fairly safe lead in House delegations. By my count it's 31-15-3, with South Dakota TBD. It would take a Democrat wave to switch 6 delegations out of the GOP fold, and if there were a wave the electoral vote wouldn't be tied.

[KQQL]

As soon as Senator Dominici retires, the seat will go RATS !

GOP got lucky with the Courts on the congressional map, that's why NM has 2 GOP memebers from NM+ NM had a LIB-Republican GOV, who vetoed RATS plan..

Remember NAdar was a big factor in NM....in 00...

Gore 286,783 48 %
Bush 286,417 48 % 29 0
Nader 21,251 4%
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2000/results/NM/frameset.exclude.html

[Torie]

Well Bush lost Franklin County narrowly, and the Columbus exurban spillover outside that county is limited. Look it up. The Columbus area is trending Dem. Just ask CT, the iconoclastic Ohioan par excellance, and commentator of many political things regarding voting patterns, not only within his state, but beyond. The guy was there to witness it all at the creation, and the remarkable thing is that the fossil is still in an animated state. Seize the moment to savor him

[KQQL]

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2000/results/OH/frameset.exclude.html

OH....link for 00 w/counties result

[KQQL]

Candidates Votes Vote % EV
Bush 2,294,167 50% 21
Gore 2,117,741 46% 0
Nader 114,482 3% 0
Buchanan 25,980 1% 0

[KQQL]

Candidates Votes Vote % EV
Bush 2,294,167 50% 21
Gore 2,117,741 46% 0
Nader 114,482 3% 0
Buchanan 25,980 1% 0


Hmmm. W won OH in 00 by 1-2% if you factor in Nadar and Pat's votes

[Dan from Michigan]

Franklin County and neighboring areas

COUNTY - Bush votes - Gore votes - Nader voters - Total voters - Bush% - Gore% - Nader%

Franklin (Columbus) 197862 202018 10702 413447 48% 49% 3%

Pickaway 10717 6598 276 17717 60% 37% 2%

Fairfield (Lancaster) 33523 19065 1115 54043 62% 35% 2%

Delaware 36639 17134 1212 55343 66% 31% 2%

Union 11502 5040 336 17013 68% 30% 2%

[KQQL]

YET ANOTHER BAYOU STATE RETIREMENT? It now looks like four of the seven Congressional seats in Louisiana this year may be open seat contests. Congressman

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EARLY RETIREMENT IN NEBRASKA. Congressman Doug Bereuter (R-NE) -- who previously revealed his plans to retire from Congress this year -- announced Friday that he will resign early from Congress on September 1, 2004, to become President of the Asia /
the late date will not require a special election.

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http://politics1.com/

[Torie]

Yep, and many of the votes of the adjacent counties are not really in the Metro Columbus area. The place ain't Detroit. In a metro area the GOP used to carry handsomely, the margin has deteriorated to near nothing.

[wylenetheconservative]

The Columbus metro area has about 450K people outside of Franklin county. If you check out the results from those counties, you'll see that Bush just hammered Gore in those counties. Franklin County is trending Rat, but the suburban counties are trending R. For example, Bush carried Delaware county 36,639-17,134 and Fairfield County 33,523 - 19,065
http://serform.sos.state.oh.us/sos/results/index.html

[jack gillis]

It's outrageously ridiculously implausible considered probabilistically:

Setting aside all partisan feeling for the moment--imagine you're a USA citizen coming back from a 1,000 years in the future when all this is ancient history--in the last six years we've had an Impeachment, a hung state in the Electoral College resulting in a less than plurality President, a tied Senate with control resting on a single Senator's switch of caucus, and now we're staring straight down the barrel of a tied Electoral College. And that's only in our domestic political institutions, never mind the Global insanity.

I think I finally understand why "May you live in interesting times" is a curse.

[Torie]

OH dear, McCrery retiring puts another Pubbie seat (Shreveport) in serious play. In fact, the Dems might have an edge.

[wylenetheconservative]

According to the US Census Bureau, those counties constitute the Columbus metro area. Thats why I said Bush carried the Columbus metro area.

http://www.census.gov/population/estimates/metro-city/ma99-03a.txt

[jack gillis]

Odd.

The advantage in delegations is almost as big as the advantage in overall seats.

[Torie]

Well, even if you append counties that really don't have a lot of folks that really live in Columbus suburbs, or exurbs, and live in small to medium sized towns that have been there since rocks cooled, what do you have? Maybe a 53% Bush margin?