Electoral College Breakdown, Installment Ten

Various

[wylenetheconservative]

Yeah, looks like Bush took 54% of the 2-party vote in the Metro area. A solid victory.

[Torie]

Another way to look at it, is that five heavily GOP counties have been wiped off the map, and are not within the Columbus metro area, and comfort us that Bush still can win there by a bit. At that rate, Ohio won't have any rural or small town counties left. They will all be sucked up into metro districts, except largely unpopulated outliers.

[wylenetheconservative]

I didn't append them, the U.S. Census bureau did. I see your point though. Franklin county used to provide a margin for the GOP itself. Is liberalism on the rise at Ohio State?

[Torie]

Well the city as acquried some culturally liberal neighborhoods, ala metro areas in the Northeast and the Pacific Coast, and Chicago, etc. Someone said, it had the largest gay population in Ohio. I don't know about that.

[wylenetheconservative]

Due to the suburbanization and exburbanization of America, most small town communities that are anywhere near a city are becoming bedroom communities as people flee the cities and the horrible school districts in them.

[KQQL]

What about Vitter's seat, I think that's a GOP hold..

Not sure about Tauzin's seat, probably a toss up to a slight gop lean...

[Dan from Michigan]

I noticed that. Not much politically surprises me anymore.

I really hope it's not a tie. It'll be interesting, but I'll probably lose my hair in the aftermath.

[Torie]

Yep

[KQQL]

[JohnnyZ]

The advantage in delegations is almost as big as the advantage in overall seats.

Republicans naturally control a lot of small mountain/west/plains states, plus they still have RINOs hanging on in providing the majority in places like Connecticut and Delaware.

[LdSentinal]

In 1992, Clinton won Ohio by just 2% with perot taking a good chunk of the electorate. While in 1995, Dole lost the national vote by 8.5%, but lost Ohio by 6% with Perot taking 11% of the vote.

Despite Ohio's economic foils, it's certainly not as bad as it was in 1992 -- and the state has been trending more to the Republican side, mainly due to the bleeding of Northeast Ohio.

[KQQL]

GOP is a majority in the Senate/house thanks to RINOS....

[Torie]

The odd thing, is that Clinton and Carter won Ohio not because of the swing in NE Ohio, but rather because of the swing in the Copperhead territory along the Ohio River outside of the Cinci metro area.

[WFTR]

Where can I find the actual results from each state in the '92 election? I wanted to do my own guesses of Perot's impact, but I couldn't find any site that gave the totals in each state.

[LdSentinal]

I guess Southern Ohio likes candidates with Southern accents. I wonder how they will react to a New Englander accent.

[JohnnyZ]

Historical election data are located at Dave Leip's invaluable website.

See the link at the bottom of Dales' post.

[KQQL]

RE: LA

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Even as McCrery finalizes his decision, a number of names are already being considered for a possible replacement. Among the most talked about are Shreveport Mayor Keith Hightower, a Democrat, and Caddo Parish Sheriff Steve Prator, a Republican.

Prator said McCrery met with him in his office on Friday. "We discussed several things. Should he decide not to run, I will consider it, but it's in the early stages of consideration.
http://www.shreveporttimes.com/html/7B57EE0C-8C4C-4B6F-B06C-04403E39C590.shtml

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Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics, called it disaster for Louisiana if McCrery were to be added to the losses the state already faces in seniority among its seven congressmen and two senators.

[JohnnyZ]

Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics, called it disaster for Louisiana if McCrery were to be added to the losses the state already faces in seniority among its seven congressmen and two senators.

Yeah yeah, they gotta go at some point, right? and the new guys will start building up seniority of their own.

[KQQL]

Looks like LA 3 will open up soon too..

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Possible candidates swarm in 3rd District

http://www.2theadvocate.com/stories/021904/new_candidates001.shtml

[WOSG]

"Coattails are largely history, and reverse coattails are well, whatever. "

I think you are wrong. If Bush/Cheney implement and execute 72 hour GOTV, then it will look like coattails, but it will realyl be TURNOUT. Either way, a big Bush win will mean some senators getting elected. eg Georgia, NC, Florida.