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Electoral College Breakdown, Installment Nine
Various
Posted on 02/22/2004 4:28:45 PM PST by Dales
Edited on 02/22/2004 5:01:33 PM PST by Admin Moderator.
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To: scarface367
Sorry. My apologies.
At least I didn't accuse you of being a Democrat.
To: Dales
There are a couple of poll results in the elections section here at Free Republic. If you haven't seen them, you might want to take a look.
Well, four and a half
Bill
22
posted on
02/22/2004 5:17:47 PM PST
by
WFTR
(Liberty isn't for cowards)
To: wylenetheconservative
Bump--You are right --NJ is gone --we are trying to bring it as least closer to the real world but not yet!!
To: Paleo Conservative
He's saving the best for last.;-)
24
posted on
02/22/2004 5:22:56 PM PST
by
WinOne4TheGipper
(I make no guarantee that the above post was written by by a sane person.)
To: chimera
I don't know what's going on in Nevada, but as far as New Hampshire, based on the latest elections, it is significantly more Republican here than 4 years ago. Its proximity to Massachusetts could negate that fact, but it will be up to Kerry to decide if he wants to spend money in a media market that he's going to win most of anyway.
The "battleground" in NH is probably going to be in areas around Rockingham, Hillsborough, and Merrimack Counties. Lately, the area has been good to us so I'd put NH at a slight advantage for Bush.
To: chimera
IA is winnable especially on the value issues - if the dims overplay the gay marriage issue, IA will go R. Jobs is less an issue in IA than the unpopular Iraq war. Unemployment rate in IA is lower than national average and with Grassley in the ticket as well, Bush could get an extra percent or two, that's likely be enough for a pickup.
I agree OH is the Florida this year, manufacturing job losses are significant in OH. But then again, OH is another culturally conservative state, gay marriage thing could sway a percent or two.
This raise an interesting scenario, will Kerry pick Bayh as veep instead of Edwards. If Bayh is on the ticket, he will make OH interesting. I don't think Bayh is enough to flip Indiana, but a moderate senator with an attractive face and young family, Bayh has all the stuff Edwards had without the trial lawyer taint. I doubt Edwards can flip NC to Kerry or make many southern states competitive either.
I consider a Kerry/Bayh; Kerry/Breaux ticket much more threatening than a Kerry/Edwards ticket. Of course if the dims make a Bayh type of move, Bush can stun the political landscape by putting McCain/Powell/Rudy in the veep stake. A McCain pick will make Arizona safe and potentially pull in NH, and a few other marginal states in - like MN, OR. A Powell pick will truly unthinkable. A Rudy pick will have the media buzz going and who knows what else.
26
posted on
02/22/2004 5:35:36 PM PST
by
FRgal4u
To: Neets
Thank you very much for the bump. I feel like a broken glass Republican all over again.
27
posted on
02/22/2004 5:46:22 PM PST
by
pgkdan
To: pgkdan
Yea, it does bring back some wild memories huh?
28
posted on
02/22/2004 5:46:57 PM PST
by
Neets
(Complainers change their complaints, but they never reduce the amount of time spent in complaining.~)
Comment #29 Removed by Moderator
To: Dales
Politics in Minnesota have changed dramatically, over the last four years.
The Democrat domination in this state always depended upon an uneasy alliance between the urban liberals and the Iron Range union members.
The solidarity between these two groups on issues fractured some years ago. For the last ten years, what loyalty has remained was mostly bought. With the Dems out of power at the Capitol, they no longer have the power to buy loyalty.
The DFL precinct organizations have been falling apart. The far-left crowd has descended into paranoid delusions, and their driving the majority of the party away.
It's possible that the Dems will pull it off, come November. But I'd put the odds against them.
30
posted on
02/22/2004 5:53:02 PM PST
by
jdege
To: jdege
The RATS could win, if they could get enough elderly folks to the polls who vote Dem out of habit. The Norm Coleman/Walter Mondale showed a stark contrast between young people and old folks. The Elderly voted for Mondale, while the young people went for Coleman.
31
posted on
02/22/2004 5:59:32 PM PST
by
Kuksool
Comment #32 Removed by Moderator
Comment #33 Removed by Moderator
To: Dales
While your overall analysis is impressive, I think you should revise the Louisiana outlook. The African-American population is growing at twelve times greater rate than that of white voters, partly because many white people are leaving. The economy continues to be problematic there. This has shown up in recent election results. In 1988, this was Dukakis's strongest southern state (45%), and in 1996 this was Dole's worst southern state (except Arkansas). Even Al Gore made a respectable showing.
To: shanscom
It goes to the House of Representatives, where each STATE DELEGATION gets one vote and a candidate needs 26 states to win.
Because of split delegations, even in our two-party system, no candidate may get 26 votes. In that case, the Veep-elect becomes acting Prez until the Prez is decided. And Veep-elected is chosen by straight vote of the Senate except you need 51 Senators because the Veep can't break this tie.
To: wylenetheconservative
I have to agree with you on New Jersey. I'll have to find the installment with NJ to see what he's basing it on, but NJ is a Democrat state these days. Too many people from NYC and Philly settling in.
TS
...
Comment #37 Removed by Moderator
To: Clintonfatigued
Louisiana is the most RAT state in the south (with AR not far behind), but my friends down there tell me that Bush is fine. The cajuns in SW Louisiana usually swing elections to the RATS, but I hear that the cajuns are with Bush. So I think Bush may win it without having to even spend money there. Kerry has other states to that are more amenible to his message, so Bush may win it by default if he stays ahead in the polls.
Comment #39 Removed by Moderator
To: shanscom
No, I mean evenly split delegations where it breaks down 1-1, 2-2 or 3-3. I think Iowa is 3-3, for instance.
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