Electoral College Breakdown, Installment Three

Various

[Dales]

Due to popular demand, I am going to revive my poll tracking and analysis that I did during the 2000 election season. I will be starting things a bit differently this year. Instead of starting off with a comprehensive overview of the entire nation, I am going to start by looking at five states at a time. For this third installment, the random state generator presented me with Nevada, Missouri, California, South Carolina, and Florida.

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Nevada

Electoral Votes: 5

2000 Result

Bush 50%

Gore 46%

Background: Since 1964, Nevada has gone Republican every Presidential election except for the two victories by Bill Clinton, both of which were by very small margins (margins which were 1/9th the size of the Perot vote). Most of the other elections were comfortable wins for the GOP.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat
7/9/03	Mason-Dixon	Link	RV	4%	Bush	51%	Unnamed Democrat	23%
10/28/03	Magellan Research	Link	RV	4%	Bush	32%	Unnamed Democrat	23%
12/3/03	Southwest Group	Link	RV	4%	Bush	50%	Unnamed Democrat	34%
2/13/04	SurveyUSA	Link	505 RV	4.5%	Bush	49%	Kerry	48%

Punditry: Don't get too excited over that July Mason-Dixon poll, as the phrasing of the question was such that only those who definitely were going to vote Democrat regardless of nominee ended up in that column. The Magellan Research poll didn't have the same bias but was phrased in a way that encouraged people to choose undecided by phrasing it "I will evaluate all candidates,including those from third parties, and choose the candidate that best represents my views." That kind of phrasing is bound to drive up the undecideds. Currently, this state has a Slight Advantage for Bush.

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Missouri

Electoral Votes: 11

2000 Result

Bush 50%

Gore 47%

Background: Considered by many to be a bellwether state, Missouri has gone Republican in every election after 1964 except for three. Jimmy Carter beat Gerald Ford by a small, four point margin. Bill Clinton won the state twice, but both times relied on Perot taking double digits (over 20% in the first). From 1968 on, the only Democrat to break 50% in Missouri was Carter, and the only Republican to fail to get 50% absent a truly strong third party candidate was Ford.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat
9/9/03	Research 2000	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	49%	Dick Gephardt	39%
1/29/04	Research 2000	Link	804 LV	4%	Bush	45%	Unnamed Democrat	40%

Punditry: As with most states, Bush has seen the Democrat challenger(s) surging with all the publicity they are getting during the primaries. Still, this battleground state is one that is more favorable for Republican Presidential candidates than most people realize, and Bush still holds the lead by a few points. This is a state Bush must hold, as it will be difficult to imagine that Missouri would fall without other dominos falling as well. For now, this state Leans for Bush.

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California

Electoral Votes: 55

2000 Result

Gore 53%

Bush 42%

Background: On a three election streak for the Democrats, California has a reputation as a liberal bastion. While Gore did handle Bush easily in 2000, the fact is that the reputation may not fit the data on the Presidential level. Only three candidates have broken 53% in California since the 1964 landslide. Al Gore last time, homestate icon Ronald Reagan in his re-election campaign but not his first election, and Richard Nixon in his re-election campaign but not his first election.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat
8/16/03	Field	NA	RV	4%	Bush	42%	Unnamed Democrat	47%
8/16/03	Public Policy Institute	NA	LV	3%	Bush	40%	Unnamed Democrat	45%
1/3/04	Public Policy Institute	Link	LV	3%	Bush	45%	Unnamed Democrat	45%
1/13/04	Field	NA	RV	3.4%	Bush	46%	Unnamed Democrat	47%
1/18/04	Rasmussen	NA	LV	4%	Bush	41%	Unnamed Democrat	46%
2/13/04	Knowledge Networks	Link	RV	4.1%	Bush	38%	Kerry	42%

Punditry: Last election cycle, Bush thought California was in play, yet he got slaughtered. It turned out that the money and time he spent at the end of the campaign here could have and should have been spent in Florida and Michigan. But the territory here is not as hostile for Republican candidates as perception would indicate. A real advantage for Bush is that he will be able to use his position to gain free media exposure in this state which is extremely expensive for advertising. If by appearing for some official business with the Governator, Bush causes the Democrats to have to counter with advertising, that will be a huge factor elsewhere. For now, California Leans for the Democrats by the numbers, although it is awfully difficult to resist the perception that it should be listed as strong.

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South Carolina

Electoral Votes: 8

2000 Result

Bush 57%

Gore 41%

Background: Jimmy Carter, from neighboring Georgia, won this state. You have to go back to JFK to find another Democrat who was able to do it. Most of the time, it was not all that close although Carter did make it close against Reagan too; the fact that a neighbor was able to twice make the state competitive (and once win it) means that the state will merit more attention should Edwards win the Democrat nomination.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat
7/28/03	Hickman Research	Link	?	?	Bush	52%	Unnamed Democrat	36%

Punditry: While I do think Edwards topping the ticket could make SC more interesting, I don't see it stopping the state from remaining part of the Republican solid south. The same holds true if he is the VP nominee, only more so. This state has a Strong Advantage for Bush.

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Florida

Electoral Votes: 27

2000 Result

Bush 48.85%

Gore 48.84%

Background: Despite the best efforts of the results-oriented Florida Supreme Court, Bush held on to win the state in 2000, just as every recount conducted afterwards validated. Did you know that since 1948, though, that only three times has Florida gone for the Democrat candidate? Johnson got 51%, Carter got 52%, and Clinton (2nd term) got 48% (with Perot taking 9%). More times than not, the Republican has come closer to 60%. Why Bush underperformed here to such a degree is something his campaign must rectify.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat
4/29/03	Mason-Dixon	Link	LV	5%	Bush	53%	Unnamed Democrat	38%
12/3/03	Schroth & Associates	Link	800 RV	3.5%	Bush	43%	Unnamed Democrat	37%
1/15/03	Rasmussen Reports	Link	LV	5%	Bush	47%	Unnamed Democrat	45%

Punditry: It was a battleground in 2000, and it will likely be one again in 2004. It probably should not be, though, and Bush would do well to figure out exactly why he cannot connect with the Florida voters the way his brother can and does, and the way past Republicans have. This state has a Slight Advantage for Bush.

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Summary Table
	Bush					Democrat
	Safe	Strong	Lean	Slight	Tossup	Slight	Lean	Strong	Safe
	ND (3)	CO (9)	GA (15)	NV (5)	-	NM (5)	CA (55)	-	VT (3)
	AL (9)	SC (8)	NC (15)	FL (27)	-	ME (4)	-	-	MA (12)
	MT (3)	-	MO (11)	-	-	-	-	-	DC (3)
Designation Total:	15	17	41	32	-	9	55	-	18
Candidate Total:	78			41			73
Undesignated electoral votes: 351

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Next installment: Wyoming, Delaware, Utah, Virginia, New York

Historical election data are located at Dave Leip's invaluable website.

Installment One
Installment Two

[AntiGuv]

That being said, I should add that I do not expect the status quo to hold in either Iraq or the economy. I certainly expect the former to improve by November, and while I am less certain about the latter, it is generally thought that the economy will improve as well. If so, then the question of course is whether perceptions of the economy will improve in tandem (and that has rarely been the case).

[Citizen of the Savage Nation]

Great info! However, you've got AL listed at 9 EV but the total of the column is 9 EV, which is correct?

[Conservateacher]

Please add me too!!!

[Diddle E. Squat]

OK, I admit to being guilty of misusing 'its'.

[Neets]

Do you just EVER worry about living in a country where ANYONE could POSSIBLY vote for a Kerry/Edwards/Hillary type?

I live in NY Bev...

[Neets]

You all have been added to the ping list this morning.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"Nevada scares the hell out of me with Yucca Mtn. Bush won all the counties outside of Clark(Vegas) here, and it was still close. Gore got 52% in Clark County."

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The only two reasons why Gore got 52% in Clark County were (i) Gore promised to veto the Yucca Mountain depository, while Bush promised to base it on "sound science" and (ii) Gore was the incumbent VP of an administration that had seen the economy do extremely well and whose moral failures did not shock most people in Las Vegas (although they are by no means so socially liberal so that Bush's support for the marriage amendment would hurt him there). And even though Clark County's share of the NV vote has increased since 2000, Kerry will still need to get well over 52% in Clark to make up for his huge deficits in the rest of the state.

Much of the growth in NV has come from conservative Californians moving in. And most of the young families in the Las Vegas suburbs believe in hard work, not government handouts. And we all saw the public outroar over the tax hike in the state.

The only way that Kerry could hope to carry Nevada is by promising to work for the repeal of the Yucca Mountain depository and cross his fingers. But since Yucca Mountain is already a fait accompli, and Nevadans know the law won't be repealed, I don't think the issue will have any traction. Besides, Kerry can't promise to repeal the law because Bush would counteract by running ads in the other 49 states saying that Kerry wants to dump nuclear waste in unsafe facilities in their states. And oh yeah, John Edwards voted FOR Yucca Mounyain at least twice.

So I agree that Nevada leans to Bush.

[jack gillis]

Your Yucca Mtn. thing raises the "focused benefits, dispersed costs" conumdrum in political economy. Kerry's response to the Bush response you suggested would be, "Oh yeah? Go for it." In WHICH of those 49 states would opposing Bush's Yucca Mtn. decision be a cutting issue?

None.

And why wouldn't Kerry make exactly that promise? Hell, he doesn't even have to go that far. All he needs to do is point out what a trecherous slimy s.o.b. Bush was on the issue last time. "I'll try to stop it but no guarantees" could be more than enough.

[Chief Inspector Clouseau]

Please add me to the ping list...Dales' analysis is fantastic...

[JohnnyZ]

I think there is little doubt that the transplanted New Englanders and the jewish population helped Gore tremendously when he added Lieberman to the ticket. But I beleive there is more to it than just that.

Wasn't there an unusually large black turnout?

[JohnnyZ]

Its really pretty simple, I don't know why people have a problem with it.

[Doctor Stochastic]

You don't have to be a wether ram to know which way the wind is blowing.

[xzins]

Thank you Dales. Please keep doing this. During the election "maybe" you could be Hugh again? My fingers are trained to type Hugh pretty easily. :>)

[Clintonfatigued]

First things first. The Florida cliffhanger of 2000 had two basic causes. First, Jeb Bush tried to keep a Ward Connerly ballot initiative off the ballot by introducing his own phasing out of affirmative action. But he didn't consult the African-American community, who were outraged. They turned out in huge numbers that yearr and took it out on Jeb's brother. Second, Gore's shrewd choice of Joe Leiberman as a running mate excited the Jewish voters, who are numerous in the Palm Beach-Miami area (particularly Broward County) and they swarmed to the polls in response. Now, Bush is far more popular with Jewish voters and black anger towards Jeb Bush is slowly waning. I think Bush will win here even if Kerry is elected Presdient.

[Paleo Conservative]

Richard Nixon in his re-election campaign but not his first election

Nixon's reelection campaign was actually his third presidential campaign. He ran but lost (many think due to voter fraud in Illinois and Texas) in 1960. Nixon barely squeeked by in California in 1960, won it more comfortably in 1968 and really won big in 1972.