Kerry Only Democrat Leading Bush in California According to New Poll (Kerry 52, Bush 48)

Knowledge Networks ^ | 2.18.04

[Celtjew Libertarian]

Exactly.

[goldstategop]

Exactly. The Democrats are doing their best to turn off for the Democrats swing voters here - the Arnold Democrats and moderate independents who would go for a moderate Democrat. I mean they're doing radical stuff like gay marriage in an election year! And when moderates like Laura Bush are against this, they should listen to the middle of the electorate but they won't cause being liberals they're feeling their oats and are full of it. So their extremism will come back to bite them in the rear in November.

[KellyAdmirer]

It is beginning to look more and more as if the Gallup poll showing Kerry ahead nationally is the outlier. No way Kerry leads by 8-10% nationally if he isn't winning California bigger than this. This confirms Zogby and Rasmussen.

[GiveEmDubya]

As I recall, the Greens got about 5-6% in the 2002 and 2003 Governor's races (I may be thinking of the wrong races though). Still, about 5% for the Greens is not out of the question.

[section9]

Now couple this with the fact that Kerry is up on Bush by five points in PA. This is after two months of relentless pounding against Bush.

Zogby's state by state tracking has Bush solidly in control of the Red Zone, while Kerry's lead in Blue Zone states is marginal, at best.

Ignore the Gallup poll that has Kerry and Edwards beating Bush handily right now. That ain't the game. State by state is the game, as Al Gore learned to his sorrow in 2000. The only reason why Hillary isn't getting in right now is that both she and her husband have seen poll numbers fluctuate before. They also know that Bush hasn't spent dime one of his money yet.

Be Seeing You,

Chris

[ambrose]

I should also add; the "gay marriage" issue could be decisive in California. The courts so far have refused to stop the issuance of marriage licenses in San Francisco. Kerry being from Massachussets where the courts are mandating the legislature write legislation allowing same-sex marriage won't have much wiggle room. The real news here is the DemocRATS can't automatically count on California and will have to spend lots of money there.

The CA Supreme Court is moderate to conservative. They'll put a stop to the gay marriage thing.

[goldstategop]

If you take the statistical noise into account, Bush would actually be leading in California! So I think the truth is Kerry is unelectable but we wouldn't want to make things too easy for Bush so the conventional wisdom is its a horse race til November. If it were a sane world, Kerry would be lucky to get 10% on Election Day. Ain't gonna happen but its a comforting thought.

[ambrose]

It is beginning to look more and more as if the Gallup poll showing Kerry ahead nationally is the outlier. No way Kerry leads by 8-10% nationally if he isn't winning California bigger than this. This confirms Zogby and Rasmussen.

New PA poll shows Kerry up over Bush by only 5% - which was Gore's 2000 margin of victory. That simply makes no sense in light of the Gallup number. Someone is wrong.

[Mike Darancette]

If Kerry is truly only 52-48 in CA (notice that this must be a forced number since there are no undecideds) Kerry will lose big time in November.

[Momaw Nadon]

Momaw, I know you post from that site that gives Pres. Bush only a 17% chance of winning California. I thought this thread might interest you.

Thank you for the ping, WinOne4TheGipper.

Perhaps if the traders in the political futures market saw this poll, the price of futures saying that President Bush will win California would go higher.

[Who dat?]

Caleeforneeeya is traditionally much further to the democratic side.

It still is, IMO.

They had a GOP strategist on the Lee Rodgers show prior to the last election predicting a 10 point win in CA by GWB.

Heh.

Meanwhile, he’s lost a lot of support among the hold-your-nose-and-vote-GOP voters they had last time, also IMO.

End result doesn’t change though. Not in CA.

What’s the old saying? Wish in one hand, s#it in the other – see which fills up first? Something like that…

[unspun]

Oh come on! Edwards can beat Bush any day of the week, too!

heh heh heh heh

[GiveEmDubya]

Absolutely correct.

Gore won the US popular vote by less than half a percent while winning California by 12%. If Kerry were up by 12% nationwide as Gallup suggests, Kerry's lead in California should notionally be around 20-25%.

Gallup got it wrong.

[ambrose]

Knowledge Network's final recall poll had Arnold at 43, Bustamecha at 30, and McClintock at 13.

[.38sw]

They also know that Bush hasn't spent dime one of his money yet.

You mean that $150 million just waiting to be unleashed?

[goldstategop]

The Democrats are going for Kerry for one reason only - his biography. They're not nominating him cause they know his record well or cause he has compelling new ideas or is a dynamic, exciting candidate. Howard Dean had the dynamism and excitement and the Democratic establishment got himn out of the way cause he was the real thing. Kerry's momentum is all manufactured. No one really likes the guy and the Democrats went for Kerry cause Bush hatred is driving them. That's not the stuff a national party victory is made off. I mean all these polls coming out are only interesting in light of the fact that a scant two months ago no one ever heard of John F. Kerry and he was a political cadaver bound for the Museum Of Political Also-Rans. Only its Dean who wound up there. What I don't get about the Democrats is why they put their most exciting candidate out to pasture in favor of a phony plastic banana boring Washington insider.

[GiveEmDubya]

""Knowledge Network's final recall poll had Arnold at 43, Bustamecha at 30, and McClintock at 13.""

:::Spits out Pepsi:::

If I remember my recall election night correctly, those WERE the actual numbers, and if they weren't, they're pretty close. Amazing.

I guess this poll is to be trusted then.

[GiveEmDubya]

My mistake, Arnold got about 49%.

Still not bad though.

[Paleo Conservative]

The CA Supreme Court is moderate to conservative. They'll put a stop to the gay marriage thing.

So do you think they'll squash this quickly, or could this take a few months? It would be great if this were in court getting lots of media attention just before the convention or even next fall before the presidential election.

[goldstategop]

The Democrat got the lowest percentage of the vote since 1930 and carried only the Bay Area.