"CAN I GET A LOVE OFFERING?"
Posted on 02/17/2004 7:52:03 PM PST by Pokey78
WASHINGTON — F.D.R.'s secretary of the Navy, Claude Swanson, gave us this political adage: "When the water reaches the upper deck, follow the rats."
This lugubrious saying is called to mind by the way the chairman of the Dean campaign stabbed his candidate in the back on the eve of his do-or-die Wisconsin primary.
Steven Grossman, former chairman of the Democratic National Committee, knew that his last-minute defection would dominate the final-day news and crush Dean's hopes of a stronger-than-expected showing.
What drives an old pro to such political disloyalty? Was Grossman trying to win his way back into John Kerry's good graces by dumping Dean at the propitious moment?
To most political pros, that doesn't add up. As yesterday's stunning Wisconsin results show, it is in Kerry's interest for Dean to stay in the race even beyond Super Tuesday, March 2.
First, contested primaries keep Kerry in the news, waving victoriously, gaining TV "debate" time to blaze away at President Bush. Dean is now a useful sparring partner, jabbing lightly, the perennial loser who helps define the consistent winner.
The other service Dean now performs for Kerry is to split the not-Kerry Democratic vote. This is not yet an anti-Kerry vote, because the Massachusetts senator has stolen Dean's antiwar resentment and adopted Edwards's cheerful soak-the-rich pitch. But many Democrats could turn anti-Kerry if John Edwards continues to play the feisty Avis to Kerry's establishment Hertz.
There's a new phase a-coming. Kerry has had his comeback honeymoon. He has offered only a high-carb diet of populist platitudes in stump speeches. For a serious man running for a serious job, Kerry has not made a policy speech since December, when he was nobody.
The Washington Post editorialist just noted "his fuzziness on issues ranging from Iraq to gay marriage. . . . He voted for the North American Free Trade Agreement yet now talks in protectionist terms. . . . He must explain how he would manage the real and dangerous challenges the U.S. now faces in Iraq — without the fuzzing."
The Post's Fred Hiatt is not yet Meg Greenfield, but his influential wake-up call is sure to be echoed — especially in light of Wisconsin's results.
Kerry's momentum is now checked. The surprise was John Edwards's powerful showing, especially among independents, followed lamely by Dean. If Dean had taken the Grossman gas pipe and announced he would quit, I believe his anti-establishment vote would have split 2 to 1 for the Southerner Edwards, putting him way over the top — and in Wisconsin, by yimminy, where voters can hardly understand a word he's saying.
If Edwards is smart (and a trial lawyer who got $25 million for himself out of the medical profession must have an agile mind) he will carry an empty chair around New York, Ohio, Georgia and California demanding that Kerry debate him one on one about Nafta, where he is a genuine Smoot-Hawley protectionist and Kerry merely a primary-conversion protectionist.
Kerry would probably refuse to debate unless Dean were included, to steal the debate spotlight like Ross Perot. But if Dean wanted to get even, the embittered Vermonter would accept and then back out at the last minute to let the two frontrunners have at it. Oh, boy.
Did I just say "two frontrunners"? How can that be — when Edwards starts from so far behind? And when Kerry is belatedly lionized by Clintonites who thought a Dean debacle would pave the way for Hillary in 2008? And when Kerry's Kennedy acolytes turn ashen-faced only at the rumor that an Al Gore endorsement is imminent?
Here's how: Although Dean is not a kingmaker, he can be the frontrunner-maker. By staying in through Super Tuesday, this anti-Warwick could ensure Kerry's nomination. By throwing his waning strength (and Web fund-raising) to Edwards, he could help transform a routine Boston coronation into a neck-and-neck race down the homestretch.
There's a consummation devoutly to be wished. It would mean the weekly Kerry victory parade would be over and the media pendulum could swing again — and that the pressure would be on Edwards to cut the class warfare lest he expose the deep economic split in the Democratic Party.
"CAN I GET A LOVE OFFERING?"
Maybe it's the (political) season and Bill is re-energized or something, but Safire has been churning out some very astute, very entertaining columns lately.
Go, Kerry, go!
| Although Dean is not a kingmaker, he can be the frontrunner-maker.. By throwing his waning strength (and Web fund-raising) to Edwards, he could help transform a routine Boston coronation into a neck-and-neck race down the homestretch.
As I understand this game, delegates are only pledged to vote for the candidate whose name they ran under on the first ballot. If nobody wins on the first ballot, they start to compromise, which rhymes with thunderthighs, and that spells H-I-L-L-A-R-Y. Let's not get all terrified of Kerry because the media is having multiple orgasms over the guy. They always do that. He's a Democrat, and so are they. But Kerry is McGovern in a Dukakis hat, and he's going to go down the same way. Let's take that while we can still get it. If Kerry doesn't walk in there with enough delegates to put himself over the top on the first ballot, the nomination will be decided by some serious smash-mouth backroom politics. That process is almost certain to produce Hillary Clinton as the "compromise" nominee. Go, John, go! All the way to the convention! After that you're toast, but you'll be fun to bat around for a few months. |
There isn't much action between now and Super Tuesday, March 2, when ten states will be up for grabs.
California, New York and Ohio will be the big'uns.
Georgia is presumably in Edwards' pocket. Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Connecticut would seem to belong to Kerry. Can a terminally wounded Dean even carry Vermont?
Who knows how Minnesota and Maryland might go.
Taking us back to California, New York and Ohio. Kerry needs to win two of them, in order to maintain his momentum. If he loses two, he's road kill.
I'm guessing Clark could best help Kerry in California -- where the average Democrat voter is more addled, a little weirder than your run-of-the-mill Rust Belt 'Rat.
Jeez. Evaluating the Democrat primaries is like handicapping a $1000 claimer, ain't it?
They ought to be worried about how hateful John Kerry is and whether or not the American people can tolerate his nasty personality. I have a 15 second rule. If I hear him on the radio or see him on TV I change the channel within 15 seconds. If he is elected I will have to become a hermit because I simply cannot stand him. I can't think of anybody in public life that is as cold, and snobby and in love with himself as Kerry.
They wouldn't be if the rumors were not true. Oh please not another one in the White House. Not another Democrat adulterous, old codger sleezebag.
Those who missed it should go to thread 1079861, reply #67 yesterday ("McCain: Hanoi Hilton Guards Taunted POWs with Kerry's Testimony"), for some first-hand stories about Kerry.
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I'd prefer the routine Boston coronation, thankyouverymuch.