Posted on 02/17/2004 4:50:28 PM PST by jmstein7
Harold Wilson, that British politician more canny than admired, usefully reminded his audience that things can change very quickly in politics.
"A week is a long time," he said, in politics, and we have seen this over and over in the American scene these past months.
After all, only nine weeks ago former vice president Al Gore blessed the insurgent campaign of Howard Dean and most pundits thought the race was over. All that was needed was the anointing of the former Vermont governor as Democratic party standard-bearer to take on US President George W. Bush in November.
Overnight Senator John Kerry, whose campaign had almost imploded late last year, turned the race upside down by winning big in Iowa's caucuses and then the weeks following in New Hampshire, Missouri and other primaries -- not only showing he has the "Big Mo" (or momentum) essential for winning in America, but a hammerlock on the nomination.
Or so it looks. After all, Senator Joe Lieberman has withdrawn, Wesley Clark's hopes are forlorn and John Edwards is resting his case on a single win, in the state of his birth.
But can it happen again? Dean's hold looked airtight until folks actually went to the polls. He had money to burn and endorsements from across the country, and now he is barely maintaining viability as a serious candidate. What could go wrong with Kerry's campaign at this point, and are there any implications for Asia?
Not a lot, but no one yet considers it over. The lanky and experienced Massachusetts senator has money to burn. No one wants to say it, but his wife's near billion-dollar fortune at the very least permits him to spend all his own, more modest, fortune to smooth his way. She can't shovel money directly into his campaign, but the mere fact of her fortune gives confidence to other contributors or lenders that they're backing a winner. He has seemingly unlimited self-confidence, despite many trip-ups in his long career.
But no senator has won the keys to the White House since John F. Kennedy.
There's a reason why senators don't tend to win. They've been on the record for too long on too many issues. There are too many interest groups they have had to cultivate and satiate to stay in politics. Sam Nunn, a powerful senator from Georgia who didn't even have to face serious re-election opposition, left the Senate in 1996 because he tired of spending his evenings entertaining his major supporters and running over to the Senate to vote. At the prime of life, he wanted to rediscover his family.
The real issue that Kerry must resolve is, however, character. Now that he is the front-runner, he must not only answer to all the charges of serving special interests that have risen and will still rise, he has to satisfy the public that he is, not to put too fine a point on it, an honorable man. There are questions.
Kerry has managed to straddle many issues and so it is difficult to discern his real beliefs -- other than in himself. He votes for the war in Iraq so he doesn't look "wet" and then votes against Pentagon budget rises, so he can please the liberal Democrats, who give him one of their highest ratings. When he looks at an acquaintance, he always seems to be looking just past, to see if someone more important lurks behind his interlocutor. Of course that's just standard politics. But people want something more.
He now makes much of his decorations from the war in Vietnam, to appeal to centrists and conservatives, without reminding those audiences that he for long was a leader of Vietnam veterans against the war. Indeed, assiduous searchers, looking for his vulnerabilities, will find much of interest in that period of his life. For example, the fabled and distinguished chief of naval operations (CNO), Admiral Elmo Zumwalt, told me -- 30 years ago when he was still CNO -- that during his own command of US naval forces in Vietnam, just prior to his anointment as CNO, young Kerry had created great problems for him and the other top brass, by killing so many non-combatant civilians and going after other non-military targets.
"We had virtually to straight-jacket him to keep him under control," the admiral said. "Bud" Zumwalt got it right when he assessed Kerry as having large ambitions -- but promised that his career in Vietnam would haunt him if he were ever on the national stage.
It is that sort of thing that senators don't have to worry about. But if they become a front-runner for president, the whole ball-game changes. Their past is scrutinized with a fine-tooth comb. In Kerry's case, for example, he has shown precious little interest in Asia since his tour in Vietnam, and there is little doubt that he will follow the standard Democratic party, pro-Beijing, line. But every word he's ever spoken on it will be scrutinized.
That is why it is not only true that a week is a long time in politics. But, as they say in American politics, "It ain't over until the fat lady sings."
W. Scott Thompson is an adjunct professor at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University in Boston, and a former assistant secretary of state in the Reagan administration. He has visited Taipei eight times and now lives in Bali.
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Very interesting. I have been thoughtful of what exactly is the source behind Kerry's apparent inability to move forward. It's like he is stuck in a cruel and relentless time warp and can't move beyond it.
Whether this statement is true or not, there are some really big questions about Kerry and his fitness as POTUS and CIC.
All I know is that his anti-war actions brought enormous suffering upon our young soldiers in Viet Nam, especially the POWs. Kerry's name should be cursed for that alone.
Oooh, good point! It sounds true. Why don't we take a dishonorable page from the DNC handbook, and tar and feather Kerry with the allegations. Like the Republican targets, Kerry will have to do double duty trying to clear his name. Bwaaahhhaaa, I love the smell of imploding Democrats in the morning...smells like freedom ;-)
At least enough to wonder if Kerry killed any Americans.
http://www.s-t.com/daily/10-96/10-28-96/a03sr015.htm
Kerry assails columnist who questioned war service By Glen Johnson, Associated Press writer
BOSTON -- Stung by a column questioning the circumstances of his greatest war triumph, Sen. John F. Kerry gathered his commanders and crew from Vietnam yesterday to rebuff what several called an assault on his integrity.
Mr. Kerry, visibly angered, recounted how he chased down a Viet Cong soldier in February 1969 and killed him as he was just about to fire a rocket into Mr. Kerry's Swift boat. The action earned him the Silver Star, the country's third highest honor for bravery.
The critical column, however, quoted the boat's forward gunner as saying Sen. Kerry actually finished off the soldier after the gunner wounded him.
Yesterday, the gunner, Tom Belodeau of Dracut, stood beside Sen. Kerry and said he had been misquoted. "This man was not lying on the ground. This man was more than capable of destroying that boat and everybody on it. Sen. Kerry did not give him that opportunity," Mr. Belodeau said.
Mr. Belodeau did concede that he may have wounded the Viet Cong soldier with a burst from his own gun, but he said Sen. Kerry did more than just finish him off. The columnist, an economics writer David Warsh for a Boston newspaper, noted that such a "coup de grace" would have been considered a war crime.
"The soldier that Sen. John Kerry shot was standing on both feet with a loaded rocket launcher, about to fire it on the boat from which (Mr. Kerry) had just left, which still had four men aboard," Mr. Belodeau said.
The Democrat also describes it as a defining period in his life, since he came home opposed to the war and began his public life as co-founder of Vietnam Veterans Against the War.
The most celebrated moment came on Feb. 28, 1969. A three-boat flotilla Mr. Kerry was commanding on a river in South Vietnam came under fire and Sen. Kerry took his boat directly into it. By the end, a Viet Cong soldier was dead and Sen. Kerry was carrying an enemy rocket launcher with a rocket still loaded in the chamber.
In the column, Mr. Warsh quotes Mr. Belodeau as saying in the course of their interview, "You know, I shot that guy. ... When I hit him, he went down and got up again. When Kerry hit him, he stayed down."
Gov. Weld received educational and medical deferments from serving in Vietnam, something Sen. Kerry has never directly challenged. But Mr. Kerry was clearly insulted over having a segment of his service questioned.
Sen. Kerry's staff arranged a news conference at the Courageous Sailing Center in the Charlestown Navy Yard. It also flew in several people who attested to Sen. Kerry's character and his version of events.
They were retired Admiral E.R. Zumwalt Jr., who commanded U.S. naval forces in Vietnam; retired Capt. George Elliott, Kerry's commander at the time of the shooting; retired Cmdr. Adrian Longsdale, who commanded shoreline operations at the time; and Mr. Belodeau, an electrician who is currently working in Michigan. </>
Also participating by phone from San Francisco was Michael Medeiros, who was the rear gunner on the Swift boat. Tom Vallely, a former Marine and Sen. Kerry's close friend, introduced each speaker.
Mr. Zumwalt, with two Navy ships and the USS Constitution anchored over his shoulder, said he remembered only two such incidents from Vietnam and one of them was Sen. Kerry's.
Mr. Zumwalt also said he wanted to recommend Sen. Kerry for an even higher medal, the Navy Cross, but approval would have taken too long. Instead, he personally approved a Silver Star and sped along the award to improve morale at a time his sailors were taking heavy casualties.
"To me it was such a terrible insult, such an absolutely outrageous misinterpretation of the facts, that I felt it was important to be here," Mr. Zumwalt said. "A wartime commander has a lifetime responsibility to look out for the guys under him."
Mr. Medeiros, who was chasing after Sen. Kerry and the fleeing soldier, said he did not see Sen. Kerry kill him but had no doubt that the senator did so.
"The only one that was there was Senator Kerry," he said. Sen. Kerry said his reaction to the column had nothing to do with the latest poll findings.
"This is not about Bill Weld," he said. "This is about my honor, this is about the honor of my crew and this is about the honor of those who served. ... This is just wrong. This is not the way to conduct American politics."
That is something I don't believe you will ever see.
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