Posted on 02/14/2004 8:00:06 AM PST by Rams82
Some Russians see Machiavellian motives within the security service, writes Helen Womack in Moscow.
The forthcoming Russian presidential election might seem a simple affair. The opposition candidates are standing mainly for form's sake, as the popular incumbent, Vladimir Putin, looks set to win a landslide victory.
But recent dark happenings suggest murky undercurrents in Russia's political life. Despite more than a decade of supposed democratic reform, Russia can still produce events that are terrifying one minute, farcical the next.
"Our country produces the best black theatre in the world," said one Muscovite in the week when at least 39 people were killed by a bomb on the metro and a presidential candidate went missing, presumed kidnapped or murdered, only to turn up later, having apparently taken a break from the stress of his campaign.
Russians assumed the worst about the fate of the candidate, Ivan Rybkin, which shows just how jittery they have become.
The carnage from the metro bomb on February 6 helps explain the nerves. No one knows who was behind the blast or other bombings over the past five years. President Putin, a former KGB agent, blames Chechen terrorists, and most Russians believe him, although moderate Chechen rebels deny targeting civilians.
A few Russian dissidents have dared to suggest that the Russian security services have been bombing their own people to scare them into opting for Mr Putin, the strongman.
"Who else but the FSB [Federal Security Service, successor to the KGB] has the resources to carry out the metro bombing?" asked Alexander Litvinenko, a former FSB officer now exiled in London. "Putin may be sure of re-election but his power is not yet absolute. The oligarchs are still not completely defeated. There is still something of a free press. There are dissidents. They [the security services] need national paranoia so that everyone shuts up."
Suspicion of FSB dirty tricks first flickered in 1999 when bombs, blamed on the Chechens, destroyed four apartment blocks in Moscow and other cities, killing hundreds. Such was the public outrage that Mr Putin, then prime minister, was able to launch a second war against Chechnya that propelled him into the Kremlin as Boris Yeltsin's successor.
But a bizarre incident in the city of Ryazan made some Russians wonder whether the official version of the bombings was acceptable. Residents of an apartment block saw people they described as ethnic Russians, not Chechens, carrying sacks into the basement of their building.
The local police said the sacks contained explosives. When the FSB turned up, they said the sacks contained sugar and the whole scare, which involved the residents being evacuated in the middle of the night, was in fact a "training exercise".
Only recently have dissidents such as Mr Litvinenko, whose book has been banned in Russia, begun to openly discuss the unease. Two men have been jailed for life for blowing up the blocks of flats, but those who ordered the explosions have not been identified.
Most commentators think it unlikely the FSB could have done the latest metro bombings. Western diplomats said the security services had no reason to kill and terrorise now or in 1999, because Mr Putin was politically secure. With elections due in March, the last thing Mr Putin needed was to remind the electorate of the continuing problem of Chechnya.
Olga Kryshtanovskaya, a critic of the regime, said she thought it most probable that the metro bombers were Chechens, "taking revenge for human rights abuses" that continue even though the war is supposed to have ended.
Even Salambek Maigov, former spokesman for the moderate rebel leader Aslan Maskhadov, said he believed that some "third force" interested in destabilising Russia was responsible for the metro bombing.
In Chechnya, the militant rebels have a new Saudi-born commander, Abu Walid, who is introducing younger Chechens to Islamic jihad, according to a report in The Moscow Times.
Opposition presidential candidates attacks on Mr Putin have been cautious. Indeed, several are supporters of the President, standing to give the illusion of choice. Among the genuine challengers was Mr Rybkin, backed by the exiled oligarch, Boris Berezovsky, who has also suggested that the FSB orchestrated the apartment block bombings.
And the liberal Irina Khakamada may engage Mr Putin in a real political fight. She has said she believes in the presumption of innocence. In the absence of facts, she refused to accuse anybody over the apartment block bombings and other acts of terrorism.
Political analysts doubt that the latest grim events will dent Mr Putin's popularity. "Some will say we need to fight terrorism all the harder and demand even tougher measures," said Dmitry Trenin, of the Carnegie Centre.
"Others will point to the ineffectiveness of the special services and ask why they had no advance information [about the metro bomb]. But on the whole, it won't affect his [Putin's] rating."
Mr Putin is popular because many feel he has brought stability after the turbulent Yeltsin years, the economy is growing and living standards are beginning to rise.
I was there during the 'Yeltsin Years'. I have spoken to friends who are still there, and they are much happier and feel much safer now than under Yeltsin.
Crime was a major problem in '94, as was inflation. The ruble went from 4200 -old rubles- to the dollar to 5800-old rubles- in just 18 days. The shops wouldn't take them from us yanks. They only wanted $'s.
I also witnessed 2 bank robberies and watched 2 people get murdered on the street. There were so many homless, retchedly poor people there, it was like what you see in the feed the children commercials.
Since Putin has come to power, friends have told me that things have stablised or improved. Crime rates, inflation, poverty rtaes have gone down.
It is certainly understandable why he is favored to get re-elected.
LOL! Da!
Palski-walski of Alexi Baldwinov and Barbari Streizandovich.
I stop reading this rubbish at point here....bet same thing said of Arafat after each bombing of Israelies...
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