Posted on 02/11/2004 7:57:42 PM PST by Republican Wildcat
Kentucky voters like Republican Jim Bunning and the job he is doing as a first-term U.S. senator, but he has yet to cinch re-election, according to The Courier-Journal's latest Bluegrass Poll.
Forty-one percent of likely voters in the Nov. 4 election said they would vote to re-elect Bunning, and only 13 percent said they would vote to replace him. Nineteen percent said they would consider voting for someone else, and 27 percent said they didn't know or were undecided.
The error margin of the poll, which surveyed 658 likely voters by telephone from Jan. 30 through Feb. 4, is 3.8 percentage points.
A score of 41 percent on re-election is about average for most senators, but 27 percent undecided is relatively high, said Jennifer Duffy, who watches Senate races for the Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan Washington newsletter.
"That is the number Bunning should be concerned about, and that should give Democrats a little bit of hope," Duffy said. But she said the 13 percent vote to replace "says that Bunning is not a polarizing figure."
Likely voters who have a favorable impression of Bunning outnumbered those who have an unfavorable impression by a margin of 2 to 1. By almost 4 to 1, they approved of the job Bunning is doing. Three-fourths of those who approved said they approved somewhat, while the rest said they approved strongly.
Both parties have primary elections for the Senate on May 18, but neither appears to be competitive.
Bunning, a former House member and major league baseball pitcher from Southgate, is opposed by former state Sen. Barry Metcalf of Richmond, who got 26 percent of the vote against Bunning in 1998.
The Democratic primary pits perennial candidate and party-switcher David Lynn Williams of Glasgow, who is not running an active campaign, against Daniel Mongiardo, a state senator from Hazard whom the national Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee endorsed two weeks before the Jan. 27 candidate-filing deadline.
The poll found that only 11 percent of likely voters said they had read or heard anything about Mongiardo, who acknowledges that he must accelerate his fund-raising to have a chance against Bunning.
Mongiardo raised only $100,905 through Dec. 31. With $206,000 in loans from himself, he had $268,875 in the bank. Bunning's year-end balance was more than $3.2million.
Mongiardo's personal financial disclosure, which lists assets and liabilities in ranges of values, shows that his net worth is between $1.6million and $3.5million, not including any residential mortgages, installment loans or other debts that do not have to be listed.
Mongiardo's longtime consultant, Kim Geveden of Lexington, noted that his client did not start raising money until Nov. 5. Geveden said Mongiardo did well, considering the holidays and "the low spirits of Democrats on the heels of the governor's election," which they lost for the first time in 36 years.
Geveden said the poll "is an independent confirmation of what we've been saying," that Bunning is vulnerable. "Our challenge is to raise the money, and Daniel's going to raise the money."
Mongiardo, a surgeon, declined to say how much more he is willing or able to lend his campaign. "We're going to do whatever it takes to make people understand I'm the person to solve the problems we face today," he said.
Bunning said the poll results are very similar to a survey taken for him a year ago. He said that when he ran for governor in 1983, his first poll also showed him with 11 percent name recognition, the same as Mongiardo has now, "so we're gonna work like hell." As GOP nominee against Martha Layne Collins in 1983, Bunning got 44 percent of the vote.
Duffy said that the poll indicates that voters' knowledge of Bunning "is a bit shallow," partly because only 75 percent said they had read or heard about him although he has been in Congress since 1987.
When Kentucky's other senator, Republican Mitch McConnell, first sought re-election in 1990, his name recognition in a Bluegrass Poll that April was 80 percent.
In the latest poll, Bunning was less known in Western Kentucky than the rest of the state. That part of the state, which once had a strong Democratic heritage, is increasingly voting Republican, making it the key region for statewide GOP victories in recent years.
In another swing territory, the 6th Congressional District, Bunning had lower re-elect and job-approval scores than in the rest of the state.
Though he is an outspoken Republican, Bunning showed strength among many Democrats. Thirty percent of people who said they identified with the Democratic Party said they would vote to re-elect him, as did 36 percent of registered Democrats. His job rating among both Democratic groups was more than 2 to 1 favorable.
The poll did not identify Bunning as a Republican and did not ask respondents directly whether they would vote for him or Mongiardo, who was not identified as a Democrat or a state senator.
Feelings about Bunning were linked to partisan allegiance and opinion of President Bush.
Among those who approved of Bush's job performance, a bare majority said they would vote to re-elect Bunning. Those who disapproved were about evenly divided between re-election, replacement, considering someone else and undecided.
Virginia Griffin, 67, of Louisville, a retired teacher, said Bush is the main reason she would vote to re-elect Bunning, for whom she voted in 1998.
"I support President Bush and I want to see him through this crisis we're in, so I will probably support his Republican Party," said Griffin, a registered Democrat who said she feels closer to the GOP.
But John Thomas, 66, of Louisville, a retired construction engineer, said he strongly disapproves of Bunning because "he's a George Bush yes-man."
Thomas, a Democrat, said he hadn't heard of Mongiardo but would vote for any Democrat for senator "unless he had such a poor track record."
Both Griffin and Thomas were poll respondents who agreed to interviews.
The poll showed a gender gap. On re-election and favorability, Bunning did noticeably better among men than he did among women, though there was no difference between the sexes in his job-approval rating.
In Jefferson County, 37 percent of likely voters said they would vote to re-elect Bunning, 22 percent said they would consider someone else, 16 percent said they would vote to replace him and 26 percent said they were undecided or didn't know. His job rating in the county was 64 percent approval and 17 percent disapproval. The error margin for the Jefferson County results was 8.9 percentage points.
ROFL!
"There are no American infidels in Baghdad. Never!" "My feelings - as usual - we will slaughter them all" "Our initial assessment is that they will all die" "I blame Al-Jazeera - they are marketing for the Americans!"
That would be hilarious. Mongiardo DOES have until May 18th to get the word out, about 3 months. And he'll get more free media (presumably) than the Republican AG candidates did last year when Wood(?) won.
What is this supposed to mean? If 41% is normal for re-elect numbers, than how is 27% undecided bad for him? I would think that's good...the other thing it could be is people wanting to vote against him, right? Surely that's not better.
I think the gist is that the 27% is A) unusual and B) the only straw Dems have to grasp at. I guess they figure, "at least they're undecided and not in FAVOR of Bunning".
Weinberg, an education activist from eastern Kentucky and the daughter of the late Gov. Bert Combs, spent about $600,000 during the primary, much of it in a late rush of television commercials. Barlow, who runs a small business in Paducah, spent $6,000, most of it on postage and gas for his van.
I'd be surprised if Mongiardo spent as much as 600k in the primary, and he doesn't have the Combs family name. You may be onto something!
Bunning is still great then?
I'd like to see him fire a high and hard one that "just got away" somewhere in the area of Kerry's neck-bolts (heh-heh).
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