Kerried Away: The myth and math of Kerry's electability

Slate ^ | 2.10.04 | William Saletan

[ambrose]

Kerried Away

The myth and math of Kerry's electability.

By William Saletan

Posted Tuesday, Feb. 10, 2004, at 9:41 PM PT

By media consensus, the race for the Democratic presidential nomination is over. Why? Because John Kerry has won 12 of the 14 primaries and caucuses held so far. And why has Kerry won these contests? Not because voters agree with him on the issues. The reason, according to exit polls, is that voters think he's the candidate most likely to beat President Bush. There's just one problem: The same polls suggest this may not be true.

Two weeks ago, Kerry beat Howard Dean by 12 percentage points in the New Hampshire primary, convincing Democrats around the country that Kerry was their most electable candidate. How did Kerry win? By racking up a 4-to-1 advantage over Dean among voters who chose their candidate because "he can defeat George W. Bush in November." Among voters who chose their candidate because "he agrees with you on the major issues," Dean and Kerry were tied.

Let me say that again: Among voters who picked the candidate they wanted based on the issues, not the candidate they thought somebody else wanted, Kerry did not win the New Hampshire primary.

[Mike Fieschko]

Nicknames? How about

Jane Fonda Kerry?

[Sam Cree]

I'm not sure what Kerry even stands for, except hatred of Bush and communism.

I have a hard time believing these things will play well with the American public, but who knows.

[Stentor]

Edwards was always the most dangerous dwarf running insofar as W's re-election is concerned..

I pointed this out previously to a chorus of silence. To repeat; If Edwards were running the soccer mom's would have to stop wearing t-shirts. Kerry is a political goat headed for a stone altar.

[Phlap]

On CNN last night three liberals gushed about Kerry and how great his wins were. But is polling only 50% of the democrats that great? If only 1 in 2 democrats support him is he likely to pull in the support of more than 1 in 2 republicans and indies?

[Doc Savage]

1. Taxachusetts - Communist

2. Vermont - Communist

3. Florida - Communist

4. Wisconsin - Communist

5. Oregon - Communist

6. California - Communist

7. Arkansas - Mentally Deficient Communists

8. Hawaii - Communist

9. New Hampshire & Maine - Actually part of Socialist Canada 10.New York - Communist

Need I continue. The once great amalgam of states has become the USSR II. Welfare, gun control, abortion, political correctness, judges legislating laws, criminal's rights, weak National defense, love of dictators, failing public schools and the teacher's unions, against home schooling and vouchers, American Criminal Liberties Union, eco-terrorists. How the hell did it all crumble so fast and so easily??? Keeping Liberals in check is like watching your septic tank start to back-up. Suddenly it's too late, and the stench is beyond human resistance.

[shhrubbery!]

Don't forget "Botox Boy."

[bray]

The real question is how is Yaaaawn doing with the Black vote???? He can't pull a BJ and do the Black Baptist Minister routine at Massers Baptist Church in DC. Without a big Black turnout who are not in love w/Mass Libs, it ain't goin ta happen. Save the fire til you see the reds of their beady little eyes.

Pray for W and The Election

[1Old Pro]

Kerry's past will come back to haunt him.

[SamAdams76]

Keep in mind that these primaries are not binding. If Kerry wins most of them, he will be crowned the "nominee apparent" by the press, which is dominated by northeastern liberals. The Bush team and other conservatives will then attempt to expose Kerry for what he really is- the one Mass politician more radically left than Ted Kennedy. If they are successful in that endeavor, as well as in highlighting Bush's accomplishments and communicating his vision, the voters may start to have second thoughts about Kerry. By the time the Democratic Convention rolls around, Kerry could be rock bottom and Democratic delegates, faced with a repeat of 1984 or 1972, could look to nominate a fresh face.

Interesting thought but this has never happened in modern politics. Even though the delegates are technically non-binding, they are unlikely to change, especially if Kerry racks up a huge lead as he appears to be doing now (12 of 14 primaries won so far). And even if the delegates were inclined desert Kerry at the convention, to whom would they go? Certainly not Hillary, who is even more to the left then Kerry and Kennedy combined. Certainly not Edwards, who is taking a real beating in these primaries. Losing Virginia and Tennessee last night all but put a final nail in the coffin of Edwards slim hopes to overtake Kerry. If he can't beat Kerry in the South, he's finished.

[EEDUDE]

"I reject this notion that Kerry has 'national security' expertise. He was a Lieutnant, for Pete's sake, and patrolled rivers."

Yeah, and for a WHOLE four months.

[onyx]

LOL! No, you needn't continue, but I wish you would! LOL!

Taxachustts - Communist etc. Thank you for this morning's great laughs.

[Ciexyz]

There's a method to all this madness. I predict that Kerry will self-destruct like Dean, and the Party will draft Hillary.

[onyx]

Thank you for my ping. I think you're a brilliant political analysist.

One question: will Edwards' "inexperience" hurt him enough to offset the "gushy female vote," coupled with his left-wing voting record as only "one of a hundred" senators? Not what I'd call presidential qualifications.

You realize, Edwards will NOT carry his own home state of NC, don't you?

[Plutarch]

Very interesting analysis.

What is interesting is how lucid and logical these liberals can be while figuring out political advantage amongst themselves. You wouldn't know they had it in them based on their arguments against conservatives, the level of which is sunk so low that the screeching invective of Maureen Dowd looms as a towering giant.

[John Lenin]

You've got to be joking, Edwards wouldn't even win his home state if he won the RAT nomination. And now to appeal to blacks he has turned into Karl Marx. Pathetic !

[Plutarch]

You've got to be joking, Edwards wouldn't even win his home state if he won the RAT nomination.

That isn't the point. The point is that Edwards would be sronger than Kerry. He'd be stronger in both Carolina's and throughout the South, and among moderates that decide swing states. Republicans are lucky the RATS are blind to the Kerry negatives.

[petitfour]

Fresh face? I am certain Kerry will have a fresh face LIFT by Summer.