Latest PresidentElect 2004 Electoral Vote Analysis-- Bush 286, Kerry 252

PresidentElect.org ^ | 2/10/04 | WoodlandsTXFreeper

[WoodlandsTXFreeper]

Article can be found at http://www.presidentelect.org/e2004.html

President Elect 2004 Electoral College Analysis (2/10/2004)

President Elect's fifth analysis of the 2004 Electoral College vote pitting President George W. Bush against the probable Democratic nominee, John Kerry, shows that if the election were today Bush would be the first popular vote losing president to win a second term. President Elect predicts that President Bush would win 286 electoral votes and Kerry would win 252 (Down from 307-231 in September).

For several months of there has been continuous coverage of the Democratic caucuses and primaries, with little coverage of Republican re-election efforts. As expected, the Democratic nominee's poll numbers have started to reflect the bounce historically received by the party getting the lion's share of the coverage when the incumbent does not have to campaign to win his party's nomination.

However, Kerry's support is strengthening because rank and file Democrats have been yearning to get behind a single person who would lead the charge against Bush. The SOLID KERRY states are solidifying behind him, while the LEANING BUSH and LEANING KERRY states are moving more in that direction.

In our last analysis, one of Bush's problems was that his LEANING states weren't traditionally Republican friendly. With Massachusetts Senator Kerry as the probable Democratic nominee that problem may even out. He may lose LEANING states north of the Mason-Dixon Line but those south of it will start leaning back Bush's way.

This analysis is just a starting point, since it is the first to seriously consider Kerry as the nominee. Now that President Elect 2004 is in full swing, we will update this analysis every other month until summer when updates will come more often.

BTW - for those curious: This analysis was delayed in the hopes that a Democratic frontrunner would emerge so we wouldn't have to guess or do another generic assessment. However, just to be ready, preliminary analyses were done of several other candidates. For curiosity's sake, here are how those prelim numbers were looking.

BUSH: ~273 EDWARDS: ~265

BUSH:~302 DEAN~236

BUSH:~320 CLARK:~218

[CyberCowboy777]

Oregon has voted down state wide tax increases twice in two years. By wide margins.

Gore barely won the state and the Dem Governor ran just left of the Christian Conservative Republican contender.

Oregon is in play.

[Rocket1968]

Maine could also be a surprise. Republicans have been gaining some ground (very slowly), and Maine is one of two states that can split the electoral vote. The democratic governor is not well liked and the democratric legislature can only raise taxes. Just a hunch!

[BSunday]

Bush would be the first popular vote losing president to win a second term.

Arsenio: "things that make you go - hmmmmm"

[GiveEmDubya]

My personal tracker has it at 317-221. It's 317 and not 318 because Wisconsin lost an electoral vote.

Here's my take as of right now. Asterisked states signify a margin less than or equal to 5%.

Bush--Alabama, Alaska, Arizona*, Arkansas, Colorado, Florida*, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa*, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Minnesota*, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada*, New Hampshire*, New Mexico*, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon*, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Virginia, West Virginia*, Wisconsin*, Wyoming

Kerry--California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine*, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan*, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania*, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington, Washington DC

But what do I know, it's February.

[BlackRazor]

Maine could also be a surprise. Republicans have been gaining some ground (very slowly), and Maine is one of two states that can split the electoral vote.

I could see Maine's 2nd district (and its 1 electoral vote) going to Bush. Bush only lost this district by 1.8 percentage points in 2000, though Nader did draw 5.6% there. District 2 will be much tougher. Gore/Nader outpolled Bush by 13.7 percentage points there.

[GiveEmDubya]

Maine could be a surprise, but for now, I'm keeping it in the Kerry column. Baldacci's win in 2002 was not the coronation he hoped for and the legislature is filled with uber-leftists. Bush only lost by a few points and a small swing could give him the state. COULD give him the state.

If he picks up his vote in York & Cumberland a few points, he's got it.

[The Wizard]

bingo

[mwl1]

I mean carpetbomb with television and radio ads.

[WhiteGuy]

Oh..............

That's good.

Besides there are a couple of good things about our state.............