[Huck]

How the hell can you say Florida is a lock?

[ClearCase_guy]

Overall, I'm quite optimistic, but remember, in 1972 McGovern won only Mass. He couldn't even win his home state. He probably thought Minn. was a lock.

The campaign has not begun. There are no locks.

[Shooter 2.5]

I wouldn't bet on West Virginia, Minnesota or Pennsylvania.

[hobson]

Thank You! The whining around here is getting a bit ridiculous.

[Dane]

Having been at FreeRepublic as a "contributor" instead of a lurker for the last couple of weeks I'm amazed at the pesimistic attitude shown on so many of these threads

There is a fair share of chicken littles on FR. IMO, most are probably demo trolls(ala the punk rocker Moby's admission reported yesterday in the NY Daily News), others are third partiers, others are just people who always see the glass half empty and have a fatalistic attitude.

[MEG33]

No panic needed?You mean all the posters here on FR who have "lost their liberty,their rights" and aren't going to take it anymore don't need to be reasoned with,begged,cajoled or even brow beaten to vote for President Bush?

I may clean out closets then read a good book!!

[TheBigB]

I say Ohio goes GWB as well.

[Sloth]

I pretty much agree -- Bush has nothing to worry about.

[unixfox]

Texas isn't a lock. We have been importing plenty of ILLEGALS to sway the vote.

[Chris Talk]

I agree with you that Florida is a lock for Bush this year, and I live here.

I think Bush has a good lead in Missouri, New Mexico, and Ohio, bordering on a lock, and that would seem to add 36 to your 223, bringing it to 259.

If Bush does carry all of that, then Kerry would have to take everything else, making sure that Oregon, 7; Wisconsin, 10; Iowa, 6; Minnesota, 10; Michigan, 17; or Pennsylvania, 21; or West Va. 5 -- did not somehow give Bush another 11 and thus victory.

[GiveEmDubya]

I cannot say anything for certain, but as far as Florida goes, in the end, I believe Bush wins Florida (AGAIN). His brother, after Terry McAwful claimed he was toast, romped home in 2002 by double digits. While I think the margin will be somewhat small, it will be larger than what he got in 2000.

[quantim]

I largely agree with you. I think election 2002 was a great example... the dems are still scratching their heads over this, let alone 2000. The Electoral College rules. Even though I admit that the the overall popular vote will be rather close as the country is very polarized and getting more so, it will still translate into an electoral landslide. A mandate in the second term, IMHO.

[AmishDude]

Edwards, interestingly enough, has a cool interactive map with the electoral votes pre-calculated. The 2000 vote percentages are here. Take the states Gore won by more than 5% over Bush: DC, RI, MA, NY, HI, CT, MD, NJ, DE, IL, CA, VT, WA, MI, ME. These are Safe Dem. -- 200 electoral votes.

Take the states Bush won by more than 5% over Gore: WY, UT, ID, AK, NE, ND, MT, SD, OK, TX, KS, MS, SC, IN, KY, AL, NC, GA, CO, VA, LA, WV, AZ, AR. Add TN because that's safe as long as Gore isn't running. That's 211 electoral votes which are Safe Rep.

The rest: PA, MN, OR, IA, WI, NM, FL, NH, MO, NV, OH are tossup.

Now make the threshold 3.25%. That makes 247 EV's for Bush, 223 for Kerry with 59 tossup. The only thing that can change this is if Kerry puts a Safe Bush state person on his ticket. Even so, that makes NC, for example, a tossup.

I should note that Kerry could take Safe Rep seats and Bush could take Safe Dem seats, but if that happens, nearly all of the tossup states will go that way too.

I agree with the poster above (was it you?), Lieberman was a big factor in Florida being so close. The FL 2002 governor's race was a portent of things to come. I'd say FL leans Rep in the same way that TN is now Safe Rep.

Bottom line: the Dems NEED Florida. They can't win without it. Gore also won all of the very very close contests except Florida. OR, IA, WI and NM all went with less than .5% difference for Gore, the next on the list is NH, which went Bush by 1.3%.

Bush has a gigantic structural advantage. Maybe Bob Graham could help with Florida, but he's awfully weird...

[Hillary's Lovely Legs]

How many people on this forum bitch and moan about this election but don't get off their butts to do anything?

It was Super Saturday last weekend in Michigan.

First thing in the morning I was at a rally with JC Watts, then I headed off to a phone bank and got people to think about voting for Bush, volunteer and place lawn signs.

I will be busy all year making sure that my president is reelected. I hope that more here will be doing the same.

If you need more information on how to volunteer and help Bush, please feel free to freepmail me and I will assist you in your quest, no matter what state you live in.

You are either with us or against us. Vote for Freedom, Vote for Bush.

[Cicero]

It's dangerous to count your chickens before they hatch. I'm not normally superstitious, but I'm superstitious about that. Moreover, it promotes laziness and complacency.

More importantly, we don't just need to win the presidency. We need to win enough seats in the Senate to break the Democratic refusal to deal reasonably or compromise, especially on judges. Judicial appointments are the number one priority. They are absolutely essential. And Bush can't do it without more votes in the Senate. We need to sweep the country if we want to start shoveling out activist, constitution destroying judges.

[KantianBurke]

I disagree. Here's my two cents:

Alabama - R
Alaska - R
Arizona - R
Arkansas - R
California - D
Colorado - R
Connecticut - D
Delaware - D
District of Columbia - D
Florida - R
Georgia - R
Hawaii - D
Idaho - R
Illinois - D
Indiana - R
Iowa - D
Kansas - R
Kentucky - R
Louisiana - R
Maine - D
Maryland - D
Massachusetts - D
Michigan - D
Minnesota - D
Mississippi - R
Missouri - D
Montana - R
Nebraska - R
Nevada - R
New Hampshire - R
New Jersey - D
New Mexico - D
New York - D
North Carolina - R
North Dakota - R
Ohio - D
Oklahoma - R
Oregon - D
Pennsylvania - D
Rhode Island - D
South Carolina - R
South Dakota - R
Tennessee - R
Texas - R
Utah - R
Vermont - D
Virginia - R
Washington - D
West Virginia - R
Wisconsin - D
Wyoming - R

Electoral Totals: Rat gets 291, Bush gets 247. If Dubya signs the AWB and Kerry picks Gephardt (who brings in OH and MO) for VP, this result coming to pass becomes quite possible.

http://www.archives.gov/federal_register/electoral_college/calculator.html

[DameAutour]

The problem is if people think it's a lock, many won't show up if they are not motivated to vote for Bush. If many don't show up, while enough may vote to win it for Bush, a lot of tight Congressional races could go to the Democrats, who will be quite motivated to "get out the vote".

I'm afraid that with all of the focus on Bush, the Congressional races could slip under the radar. But the Democrats have not forgotten. They really have little chance of capturing the Presidency this year. But Congress is just as important!

If conservatives want to advance their agenda, two things are necessary and in my opinion more important than quibbling over George W. Bush.

1. Democrats must be kept out of power (this includes all 3 branches of government). This should be priority number 1. Conservatives cannot lose sight of this! This is how the socialists got their agenda implemented, by infiltrating one party and then keeping the other one out of power. They were patient, and ruthless. It is when they start fighting amongst themselves (for example, defecting to third parties like Greens) that they defeat their purpose.

2. There must be more conservatives in Congress. After Democrats are removed from power, it is paramount to replace "RINOs" like Arlen Specter with conservatives like Pat Toomey. It is because of RINOs in Congress that having a majority in Congress has not been enough to get the conservative agenda advanced.

[Solson]

I too am optimistic and agree about the rampant pessimism at FR. One note about that pessimism, some is sincere concern, some more is sincere hope Bush loses.

Here's what will happen... As we've seen today, Bush is already back on top of Kerry even though it has been 24/7 Kerry on the news and in discussions. Furthermore, Kerry only pulls in the 40's in Democratic caucuses. That means, unless Kerry veers further left, his base will stay home, especially the youth vote that Dean counted on so much. Dean lost in Iowa because his supporters didn't show...IMO.

As we move into the summer, the GOP will have a significant cahs advantage and will be able to spend primary $$ until their convention in September. The Dem convention is in July...way too early...and thus must start spending general election $$ as soon as it is done. That cash advantage, along with the capture of bin Laden, the transition to an Iraqi government and great timing on the economy will result is a nice safe 55% win for Bush.

This election, as much as some people hope, will not be close.

[Paulie]

"For example, we are worried about what Bill O'Reilly thinks"

Maybe, but as for me, I couldn't care less what he thinks.

[GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY]

I agree with your analysis for the most part. I just think that Florida is going to be more in the "in play" category than the lock category, trending Republican. I think WV is more of a lock for Bush than FL. What will be most telling is what turf the Dims are allocating their resources to. If FL is not one of those states, it's going to be a grim year for Kerry and the Rats.

IMHO the Dims miscalculated by holding their convention in Boston instead of in a city in a battleground state such as Philadelphia. By contrast, the Republicans in holding theirs in New York was a stroke of genius.

Status quo, Bush should prevail. He has the power of incumbency, the economy isn't awful, the war on terror has resulted in no new terror attacks, and we should be getting out of Iraq come election day. Things could always change, but the gloom, doom, and panic about polls showing Bush down the first week in February makes me laugh.