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Bush Has a Lock On These States (Vanity)
2/10/04 | Patrick1

Posted on 02/10/2004 2:36:53 PM PST by Patrick1

Having been at FreeRepublic as a "contributor" instead of a lurker for the last couple of weeks I'm amazed at the pesimistic attitude shown on so many of these threads.

For example, we are worried about what Bill O'Reilly thinks, we are worried about a Gallup weekend poll etc.

But shouldn't we think for a minute? To win the presidency, as Algore can tell you, you must win 270 electoral votes.

Fifty state elections of which a candidate must claim the majority of the vote. So how does George W. Bush stack up against JFK? If the economy collapsed and Saddam escaped from prison and started running Iraq again and all this happened the day before the election the way I see it George W. Bush would still get 223 electoral votes.

The following states are "locks". Alabama-9 Alaska-3 Arkansas-6 Colorado-9 Florida- 27 Georgia-15 Idaho-4 Indiana-11 Kansas-6 Kentucky-8 Louisiana-9 Mississippi-6 Montana-3 Nebraska-5 North Carolina-15 North Dakota-3 Oklahoma-7 South Carolina-8 South Dakota-3 Tennessee-11 Texas-34 Utah-5 Virginia-13 Wyoming-3

This is a worst case scenario, Bush needs 47 more electoral votes to win. Which of course means that JFK must run a nearly perfect campaign. He must win West Virginia,Pennsylvania, New Mexico, Iowa, Minnesota, etc.

Basically what I'm saying is quit whining, rejoice the left is going to lose again! Your thoughts?


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: electoralcollege; gwb2004
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To: Anitius Severinus Boethius
see post #66 with regards to the Gov's race. Besides if one is to take "intensity of hate" as a barometer as to how a candidate will fare then things look even gloomier for Bush. No matter how much Bush panders to them, the rats HATE repeat HATE him and will vote for the Rat who could replace him. They are very motivated.
81 posted on 02/10/2004 3:52:56 PM PST by KantianBurke (Principles, not blind loyalty)
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To: Rebelbase
LOL!
82 posted on 02/10/2004 3:55:00 PM PST by Huck (I am voting for Bush, but I will question his performance at my own discretion.)
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To: AmishDude
From another thread; I think pretty much everyone is aware Richardson is Hispanic. (An interesting aside...at least to me...I just heard that a guy I went to grade school with MAY run for NM governor this fall! In his early 60's now...just a couple of years older than moi!)

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1075528/posts

"For all her widely admired efforts as a junior senator for New York, she [Hillary Clinton] might face a difficult challenge from whoever Kerry selected as his vice-presidential running mate. Leading candidates include Bill Richardson, the popular Hispanic governor of New Mexico, and senator Evan Bayh, a rising star from Indiana.
83 posted on 02/10/2004 3:57:26 PM PST by Maria S ("I will do whatever the Americans want…I saw what happened in Iraq, and I was afraid." Gaddafi, 9/03)
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To: Solson
I am not sure what will transpire. So far, the Dems on the FEC have blocked consideration of the 527 issue until after the election. If the Republicans form 527s, then the Dems can say *everyone did it* and if we don't, they have the advantage.

Rats cheat.
84 posted on 02/10/2004 3:59:10 PM PST by reformedliberal
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To: donozark
Claire's major area of support is in the Southwest area (Springfield-Joplin) and the Northern Rural areas. Sadly for the Democrats, there are weak numbers of Democrats in those areas, so Bob will beat off her challenge due to his support in the St. Louis and Kansas City areas.

Then he will face defeat running against Matt Blunt, the only elected official (that I am aware of) who took a leave of absence after 9/11 to put on a Naval Reserve uniform and serve his nation instead of filing for an exception.

85 posted on 02/10/2004 3:59:19 PM PST by Anitius Severinus Boethius
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To: Patrick1
New York - Communist. Taxachusetts - Communist. Vermont - Communist. Minnesota - Communist. Florida - Full of Communists. Calilaughafornica - Politburo West. Cape Cod -Politburo East. Oregon - Mental Hospital for the Communistically Insane. New Mexico - Artist Colony for Aged Communists. Maine - Are they still a state?? Hawaii -Resort for Gay Communist Couples. North Dakota - Home for Homesick Siberian Communists. Pennsylvania - Ben Franklin would puke! Ohio - Where Communists Use I-80 for Target Practice. Wisconsin - Communist Cheeseheads.

I'm sorry, what were you saying....................??

86 posted on 02/10/2004 4:03:03 PM PST by Doc Savage
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To: KantianBurke
Kerry/Gephardt campaign trumpeting protectionism and other blather

That is exactly my point.  

In all fairness you made a valid point.  However, these 'groups' you mention are just that.  They are only a facet of the big picture.  This protectionism only costs jobs and any free-market thinker knows this - but union thugs (in spite of their dwindling numbers) still trumpet this believing they can keep their members in line.  

And one final point, it is not so much economic protectionism my friend as it is all about national protectionism.  Kerry does not have the will or the intellectual property to protect the nation, period.  

87 posted on 02/10/2004 4:03:05 PM PST by quantim (Victory is not relative, it is absolute.)
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To: donozark
As goes Missouri, so goes the country. The state has been on the winning side of each of the past 11 presidential elections.

As for Holden, the state AFL-CIO still endorses him (roughly 500,000 slaves...er...members), but the Missouri Teamsters (65,000 strong) endorsed Claire on Sunday, and we may see a shift as Holden becomes apparently more unelectable.

Matt Blunt would destroy Holden, but I think McCaskill will be a tighter race. But here is the sweet part. In order to reach out to rural voters, she will have to appear more conservative (Bush-like). This hurts Kerry, who would seem a farther left candidate compared to Claire and could turn off voters.

I didn't know about the observers in St. Louis, and hope they'll be back in November.

I do think President Bush will win Missouri, but I think it will be real tight. The AWB renewal will not help.

88 posted on 02/10/2004 4:05:13 PM PST by RabidBartender
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To: reformedliberal
And if he is full of it, let me know, please.

Texas is not even close to being in play. It wasn't in play in 2000, either.

The only time Rats come here is just before the primary (if then) and for private fundraisers. They don't spend a dime on campaigning.

And neither will Bush.

89 posted on 02/10/2004 4:06:33 PM PST by Dog Gone
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To: Huck; Patrick1
What??? Florida's still allowed to vote ???? What the - ?
90 posted on 02/10/2004 4:07:38 PM PST by BSunday (I'm still not the bad guy)
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To: KantianBurke
Nope, Claire isn't ready for Prime Time yet and will not beat Bob to become the Democratic Candidate for Governor in Missouri. Will not happen.

Second, the FBI is all over the voter fraud in St. Louis. We will have the Republican Missouri Secretary of State running and the Former Missouri Attorney General, Former Missouri Governor, and current U.S. Attorney General keeping a close eye on those polls like they did in 2002. In 2000, Jim Talent lost by 21,445 votes to Bob Holden for Governor. In 2002 Jim Talent won by 21,254 over the "widder" Carnahan. A turn around of 40,000+ voters, and that's in a mid-term election.

91 posted on 02/10/2004 4:10:44 PM PST by Anitius Severinus Boethius
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To: KantianBurke
Missouri - D

I know Bush won it last time and remember the pols in St. Louis stayed open till midnight in order to defeat John Ashcroft.

92 posted on 02/10/2004 4:13:11 PM PST by normy (Today I did absolutely nothing......and it was everything I thought it could be.)
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To: unixfox
Texas has a Republican Governor,all the state officers are Republican,both the house and the senate majorities are Republican.Tell me again why you think Texas isn't a lock.
93 posted on 02/10/2004 4:17:30 PM PST by MEG33 (BUSH/CHENEY '04)
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To: unixfox; HuntsvilleTxVeteran
Texas has a Republican Governor,all the state officers are Republican,both the house and the senate majorities are Republican.

The 2 US Senators are Republicans.

The President is the ex Governor of Texas

Tell me why you think Texas isn't a lock.
94 posted on 02/10/2004 4:23:05 PM PST by MEG33 (BUSH/CHENEY '04)
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To: Anitius Severinus Boethius
"Virginia-13 (I know I'm going to catch flak not having it strong Bush, but I don't trust anything that close to D.C.) "

Virginia is a lock for Bush for the state as a whole.
They went for Bob Dole big time if that helps any.

You are right that much of "northern Virginia" sector is a 'different state'. There is an attitude there that "Everything south of Quantico is Arkansas".

But the outer rim of the DC bedroom communities of Northern Virginia are strong republican areas. (Stafford, Prince William).

95 posted on 02/10/2004 4:33:12 PM PST by edwin hubble
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To: Patrick1
Thanks for the post.

The DU disruptors are out in force this past week.

I was listening to a local radio show in Georgia and the callers were all livid at this National Guard pseudo-scandal. 99% of the calls were pro Bush.
96 posted on 02/10/2004 4:36:55 PM PST by Republican Red
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To: RabidBartender
McCaskill is an anti and I do not think AW Ban will clear House. Delay/Blunt have said as much. Time will tell-and Sept. is nearing. Claire M. is a Dem and right now folks in SW Missouri (Dems and Repubs) are FURIOUS over the SMS name-change debate and filibuster by Dem. Ken Jacobs.

The 25K "dual residents" that were always present in St.L elections has for years, upset folks like me. Oddly enough, even the St.L paper finally confirmed it. And AG Ashcroft acted upon it in 2002. Missouri elections were almost Third-World-like for decades thanks to Democrooks. Hopefully, we will move away from that situation...

Was amused at Teamster switch. Recall how unions endorsed Gabby Gephart-then when he didn't make a blip in polls they dumped him. After all those years of doing all he could for unions-they broke it off in him...

97 posted on 02/10/2004 4:38:33 PM PST by donozark
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To: Patrick1
Yes there are "locks". No matter what happens Bush will carry these states.

Wasn't this the same prediction prior to Bush #41 second term?

98 posted on 02/10/2004 4:39:11 PM PST by varon
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To: MEG33
Thanks for ping.
I hope the demoncRATs spend lots of money in Texas.
99 posted on 02/10/2004 4:40:11 PM PST by HuntsvilleTxVeteran (A little knowledge is dangerous.-- I live dangerously::))
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To: edwin hubble
I know they went for Dole, but 8 years is a loooong time in politics. The beltway communities are suspect, and while the next ring is pretty secure, a lot of people have been moving out of tax high Maryland and making their home in Virginia, much like New Hampshire has been invaded by folks from Massachusetts.

I hope they realize that the high taxes are because of Democrats and change their voting behaviors when they settle in Virginia, but I don't trust many people to make those changes easily.
100 posted on 02/10/2004 4:40:33 PM PST by Anitius Severinus Boethius
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