Bush Has a Lock On These States (Vanity)

2/10/04 | Patrick1

[Patrick1]

Having been at FreeRepublic as a "contributor" instead of a lurker for the last couple of weeks I'm amazed at the pesimistic attitude shown on so many of these threads.

For example, we are worried about what Bill O'Reilly thinks, we are worried about a Gallup weekend poll etc.

But shouldn't we think for a minute? To win the presidency, as Algore can tell you, you must win 270 electoral votes.

Fifty state elections of which a candidate must claim the majority of the vote. So how does George W. Bush stack up against JFK? If the economy collapsed and Saddam escaped from prison and started running Iraq again and all this happened the day before the election the way I see it George W. Bush would still get 223 electoral votes.

The following states are "locks". Alabama-9 Alaska-3 Arkansas-6 Colorado-9 Florida- 27 Georgia-15 Idaho-4 Indiana-11 Kansas-6 Kentucky-8 Louisiana-9 Mississippi-6 Montana-3 Nebraska-5 North Carolina-15 North Dakota-3 Oklahoma-7 South Carolina-8 South Dakota-3 Tennessee-11 Texas-34 Utah-5 Virginia-13 Wyoming-3

This is a worst case scenario, Bush needs 47 more electoral votes to win. Which of course means that JFK must run a nearly perfect campaign. He must win West Virginia,Pennsylvania, New Mexico, Iowa, Minnesota, etc.

Basically what I'm saying is quit whining, rejoice the left is going to lose again! Your thoughts?

[Solson]

I will count on the advantage. The FEC very well may not allow their donations. Plus, if that happens, this will be a huge campaign issue. Bush can say we passed the Campaign finance bill and the Dems simply found a way around it. It will not be a pretty situation for the Dems.

The big advantage is the date of the Conventions. What a coup by the GOP by holding their convention so late and right before 9/11!

[Galactic Overlord-In-Chief]

Louisiana elects Democrats, but generally not the New England liberal types. It went for Bush against Dukakis in 1988. In fact Louisiana has rarely gone for a Democrat proclaiming himself to be a liberal. I think the last one was Aldai Stevenson in 1952, and even then he had John Sparkman on the ticket. Louisiana also never went for Truman or Lyndon Johnson, but went for Carter and Clinton, both of which were southern governors who hid their liberalism.

[dalebert]

Don't count on Oklahoma. People are steamed about illegals and there is a Dem Gov.

[HoustonCurmudgeon]

My only problem with your list would be the Carolina's if Edwards is the dim VP nominee.

[HoustonCurmudgeon]

Texas isn't a lock. We have been importing plenty of ILLEGALS to sway the vote.

I have a thousand USD against your hundred that says Texas is a lock. I suggest Xena hold the money ....

[RabidBartender]

The voting dead and extended polling openings (thanks to liberal judges) in St. Louis and massive welfare rolls in KC help carry the state for the Dems. (Which explains why CCW fails to carry every time it is brought up).

Meanwhile, the POS's over at moveon.org are buying massive commercial time on the rural TV stations - like KQ2 here in St. Joe. That ABC affiliate plays like a high school journalism class, but it's the only thing some folks around here have without cable.

And Holden won't be Blunt's opponent. Claire McClaskill, or whatever her name is, already has the support of several core Dem groups and will thoroughly whomp one-term-Bob in the primaries. Matt will win, though, probably by a thin margin, once again due to St. Louis shenanigans.

[Anitius Severinus Boethius]

Well, those who have the biggest fears tend to have the loudest voices. That's why pessimism seems to run rampant. Also, many of those who are the most "concerned" are those who didn't vote for Bush in 2000, they "usefully" voted for the third party of their choice.

As to your speculation on which are locks, I would agree with:

Alabama-9
Alaska-3
Georgia-15
Idaho-4
Mississippi-6
Montana-3
Nevada-5
North Dakota-3
Oklahoma-7
South Carolina-8
South Dakota-3
Texas-34
Utah-5
Wyoming-3

I say that the following are good bets:

Arizona-10
Colorado-9
Indiana-11
Kansas-6
Kentucky-8
Louisiana-9
New Hampshire-4
North Carolina-15
Tennessee-11

Any others would be "leaning Bush" or worse odds. This gives us 191 if we just don't screw something up. This leaves us 79 short. We can make that up with a few big states, or a regional effort in the Rust Belt and Mid-atlantic.

I think the latter idea is more effective. We can have Jeb fight hard in Florida for us, but if we go for a Rust Belt/Mid Atlantic route, we can shoot for:

Michigan-17
Ohio-20
Pennsylvania-21
West Virginia-5
Virginia-13 (I know I'm going to catch flak not having it strong Bush, but I don't trust anything that close to D.C.)
Maryland-10
Delaware-3

That block has 89 votes. Also consider the "rural" states that often vote Republican in a close race.

Missouri-11
Arkansas-6
Nebraska-5

This gives us more wiggle room if we pick up at least two of them.

We musn't forget that both California and New York have Republican Governor's, so even if we don't pick them up, the Democrats are going to have to spend their limited money in those high priced markets to compete against the free publicity that the Governor's will get.

All in all, I think the Democrats have a much harder map to put together than we do, but we must work hard to keep it together.

[quantim]

Care to point out how my analysis is incorrect?

Missouri (11) and Ohio (21) for Bush last time.  No real good reason to think that would change.  That is a 64 - point swing in your analysis.

[Rebelbase]

"How the hell can you say Florida is a lock?"

[Proud_texan]

"And if he is full of it, let me know, please.

I don't have any hard and fast facts or polls but IMO it's not even close in Texas, there ain't no way Kerry is pulling more votes than Bush.

I'll bet that Kerry won't carry more than five counties...if he's lucky.

[unixfox]

Hey look, I'm hoping it IS a lock, but I'm not going to count my chickens before they hatch. I remember everybody saying a certain impeached president had no chance of getting re-elected either.

[RabidBartender]

ROFL!!!!!!

[I got the rope]

State Legislature is 2 to 1 Republican to Dem. Dems can't cheat again, and people are really pissed off here. Look at the last few elections.

House 81 Republicans/39 Democrats
Senate 26 Republicans/14 Democrats

Florida is a lock!

[Paul C. Jesup]

If Bush keeps ignoring his base supporters, all bets are off.

[Xenalyte]

Texas isn't a lock. We have been importing plenty of ILLEGALS to sway the vote.

I have a thousand USD against your hundred that says Texas is a lock. I suggest Xena hold the money ....

I would be honored!

For the record, Texas is indeed a lock.

[KantianBurke]

Actually there is. Both are union heavy and have been suffering from the bad economy and job losses. Factor in the AWB which will dampen support and a Kerry/Gephardt campaign trumpeting protectionism and other blather and those states are quite in play.

[Anitius Severinus Boethius]

Missouri will not go Dem. Even veteran Democratic politicians are sharpening up their chad pokers to remove Bob "One Term" Holden from the Governor's mansion. We could run a dustbunny against him and win, he is so hated even among the State Workers Union. That's an 11 point shift right there.

[math=power]

All right...You will hear it here first!

Bush is going to choose Guillani to run as his vice prez.

This will bring back memories of 9-11 and remind people how we still need to be vigalent.

The convention is in New York...don't believe this is a coincidence.

This will throw NY into play as well as Calif. Bush has 200 million right now...If dumb Dems have to sopend money in NY and CA they will get creamed.

Think about it.

Over and Out.

Jeff

[HoustonCurmudgeon]

It's gone the other way in 2 of the past 3 Pres. elections and have Democrat senators and governor.

The locals saw Clinton as a neighbor. As to the Senators and Governor, the Republicans have mishandled some races and in some we have put up great candidates that the people there are just not ready to vote for. If you wish you may read that as bigot!

[donozark]

What you say is true (about election fraud in St.L) until 2002 election. AG Ashcroft and Sec. of State Matt Blunt had "observers" (read:FBI/FEC) in place. I suspect said "observers" will once again trek to St.L on Nov.2.

McCaskill is a strong candidate vs. Holden. However, he has the unions, especially after his recent sop to them-granting higher pay raises to union-member state employees than non-union member state employees. He has a big fund-raising machine and the benefits of incumbentcy.

CCW failed in 1999. Republican legislature passed it last year and Holden vetoed it. Republicans overrode his veto. Currently before state Supreme Court. Ruling could come anytime...But I don't think it will be in our favor. If not? Then we must work to elect Matt Blunt. He will sign such legislation-immediately.