Bush Has a Lock On These States (Vanity)

2/10/04 | Patrick1

[Patrick1]

Having been at FreeRepublic as a "contributor" instead of a lurker for the last couple of weeks I'm amazed at the pesimistic attitude shown on so many of these threads.

For example, we are worried about what Bill O'Reilly thinks, we are worried about a Gallup weekend poll etc.

But shouldn't we think for a minute? To win the presidency, as Algore can tell you, you must win 270 electoral votes.

Fifty state elections of which a candidate must claim the majority of the vote. So how does George W. Bush stack up against JFK? If the economy collapsed and Saddam escaped from prison and started running Iraq again and all this happened the day before the election the way I see it George W. Bush would still get 223 electoral votes.

The following states are "locks". Alabama-9 Alaska-3 Arkansas-6 Colorado-9 Florida- 27 Georgia-15 Idaho-4 Indiana-11 Kansas-6 Kentucky-8 Louisiana-9 Mississippi-6 Montana-3 Nebraska-5 North Carolina-15 North Dakota-3 Oklahoma-7 South Carolina-8 South Dakota-3 Tennessee-11 Texas-34 Utah-5 Virginia-13 Wyoming-3

This is a worst case scenario, Bush needs 47 more electoral votes to win. Which of course means that JFK must run a nearly perfect campaign. He must win West Virginia,Pennsylvania, New Mexico, Iowa, Minnesota, etc.

Basically what I'm saying is quit whining, rejoice the left is going to lose again! Your thoughts?

[ought-six]

"I'd bet on a Bush win in WV. That state seems to be trending Republican, and W carried it in 2000. MN and PA, are just gravy IMO. Bush can win handily without them. If he carries MN or PA, it'd be a landslide because states like OH and FL would likely already be in the Bush camp."

I'm still not sure about West Virginia, although, as you correctly point out, it is starting to show some Republican leanings. As for Minnesota and Pennsylvania, those are too close to call. Minnesota is a pretty liberal state, and has firmly embraced a socialist mindset. Pennsylvania will be tough for Bush to carry because of Rendell's influence; and Bush can forget about Eastern PA, as he'll not do well there at all. But Ohio and Florida should clearly be in Bush's camp.

[Keith]

Gephardt would NOT help Kerry in Missouri...it will go for Bush...as the facts come out about Kerry opposing so many of the modern weapons systems, all the union aerospace workers in this Boeing state will vote for Bush.

Missouri is safe unless Jesus joins Kerry's ticket...

I also feel Bush will win Iowa...Kerry won the MAJORITY in the caucus...but they don't trust a guy from Massachusetts out here...

...I think as far as the Midwest goes, you all need to remember where regionalism comes into view here...I think many of these states will go for Bush in the end...the liberal Massachusetts thing will really hurt Kerry out here with the fence sitters. We are at war since the 2000 election, and midwesterners support our troops and were deeply affected by 9-11, unlike the elitists on the coasts.

I am not preaching complacency, but the Midwest will surprise people this year, and in the end, the Heartland will support it's commander-in-chief as opposed to the Viet Cong loving east coast liberal...

[Keith]

Name me a Democratic African-American who could be on the ticket who wouldn't scare the $hit out of 90% of the country should the Kerry die in office...

[Keith]

We all HATED, I mean HATED Clinton...

...hate does not play well here in USA...Dems haven't figured out what we learned the hard way...

[Keith]

God help me I having a stroke...that is funniest stuff I've seen in ages...thanks, I needed that....!

[AmishDude]

I believe the shift in EVs is taken into account by the map at Edwards' website.

[AmishDude]

For the record, he couldn't go on this year (too young), but Harold Ford (TN) will be on a Dem ticket at some point starting 2008. He's wonkish, looks good on TV, is intelligent and -- unlike many Democrats -- he doesn't behave as if he's insane.

Plus, it'll be hard for him to win statewide office in TN. As a Dem, it's tough enough, being black, he'll have a much bigger hurdle. (Did you know Carol Mosely-Braun was the only black Democrat Senator ever?)

So, his best hope is for a Senate retirement with a Dem governor -- or to get on the national ticket.

Regarding the race card: Bill Richardson's name is bandied about. I think a Hispanic without a Hispanic name will not excite that group very much. He could certainly swing AZ and NM and puts FL in further doubt.

But...he's a Clintonite and the Clintons cannot have any Democrat be president in 2004 except for Hillary.

[AmishDude]

I think you're right about MO. My idea of "tossup" is broad. The fact is, if Kerry wins any of my Safe Bush states (without having a VP from that state or Richardson who might deliver AZ), then Bush has lost because he'll most likely lose almost all of the tossup states in between.

Looking more closely at my tossup states, PA is "Lean Dem" but they have an unpopular Dem governor (the odious Rendell) and Kerry will have to work a little to keep it in the fold. MO, NV and OH are "Lean Rep" and Bush will have to campaign in those states. But, I think if Bush wins PA he wins the election and if Kerry wins OH, then he probably wins NV and MO too -- along with the election.

I still say MN, OR, IA, NM, FL, NH are true tossups. FL and NH are near the Bush camp. NM probably leans Bush without Richardson on the ticket. IA has a Dem governor who just announced he wants a big tax increase. MN is leaning Republican. OR leans more and more Democrat over the years.

The truth is, the state-by-state analysis isn't interesting for the Bush camp. He has a structural advantage this year because of EV changes in the states. Basically, if it's a close case like 2000, Bush will win the EV.

Kerry is the one who has to play the EV game. He cannot win without a majority of my tossup states. So who does he choose as VP? There are only two choices -- Richardson and Bob Graham. Bob Graham is the only Dem politican popular enough to deliver Florida. Even then, it's a tossup. Bill Nelson cannot. Richardson might be able to have enough of an effect on Hispanics to deliver NM (that would be a lock), AZ (very likely) and FL (who knows?). But as a Clintonite and someone at the very center of the Monica controversy, he's not an ideal option if you don't want to bring up old wounds. I think that Richardson is the only one who could bring more than one state to the Democrats. Edwards probably won't deliver NC. He's not a regional candidate, so he won't deliver any southern state. (Well, maybe VA on a good day.)

If I were Kerry, I'd pick Richardson.

If I were Clinton, I'd make Richardson decline.

[donozark]

Keith above mentioned the fact that many weapon systems that Kerry voted against are built in Missouri. McDonnell-Douglas,etc. The trailers (lowboys,etc.) that haul much military equipment, likewise. Many unions will endorse Kerry-but the workers won't vote for him once they get the ballot in their hands. I hope anyway. Corruption in St.L will be kept to a minimum as it was in '02. Thank you John Ashcroft/Matt Blunt.

As I recall, Graham was quite ill. He looked ill during his Pres. bid. Just not sure if he would ad that much to ticket in such a condition. And he didn't make a blip on the radar screen during his attempts to run for Pres.

Richardson? Me thinks his screw-ups over nuclear power tech and his recent outburts against fellow Democrats may hurt him worse than Monicagate.

As Missouri goes, so goes the nation...at least most of the time. And right now, I just don't see Kerry taking it.

[AmishDude]

Graham may be ill. But the VP really only has to show up in one place -- the debate. He wouldn't need a breakneck campaign schedule. But if the illness is true, then it takes away the one argument against Cheney and Graham would add nothing to the ticket other than Florida.

Richardson isn't the perfect candidate, but who else can Kerry pick? Edwards? Hillary?

[bootless]

I missed the Moby/NY Daily News thing - what was that about?

There will always be people for whom the glass is not half empty - it's bone dry.

However, we need to work hard until Election Day to be SURE that Effin' Kerry (or the Dems' flavor of the month) doesn't ever occupy the People's House.

[BlueNgold]

Arkansas is a strong maybe, but not a lock.
Florida will be close, but Jeb's strong showing in '02 and a 'we're going to vote this time no matter what the news tells us' attitude in the panhandle bode well.
TN could come into play if Kerry pics Ford as Veep.

This is far from a done deal. There is reason to be optimistic, but we still need to get out the word and get out the vote EVERYWHERE. PA, MI, MN, and MO are all winnable, and I think Sec Ridge will play a more prolific role this time around in shoring up the Keystone State. We win with either PA or FL, but we want both.

[donozark]

That's true.

If not Bayh perhaps an unknown? Gene Taylor of Mississippi? Pro-gun southerner. Fiscal conservative. Been re-elected several times. One of few Dems I can actually listen to when on TV...

[AmishDude]

Bayh is an option, but he's anti-PB abortion. The feminists kept him from being chosen last time. That would be difficult to have happen. It would put IN in play. Maybe other states because he's perceived as being moderate. That's not a terrible choice for them.

Gene Taylor won't deliver the region, just the state. Pro-gun is nice, but it won't help if Kerry won't adopt it, too.

[AmishDude]

Ford is too young. 32, I believe.

[HoustonCurmudgeon]

TN could come into play if Kerry pics Ford as Veep.

Ford is several months too young.

[BlueNgold]

Thanks for the info. I was unaware. Heard about it being discussed on the radio this AM.

[Dane]

I missed the Moby/NY Daily News thing - what was that about?

Punk the Prez? - Moby's anti-Bush tricks

[BlackRazor]

Excellent post! I agree with just about all of your observations. The three areas where I do have differences:

1. Nebraska should be a lock state. Bush beat Gore here by 29 points.

2. Why do you have Nevada as a lock state? Bush only outpolled Gore/Nader by 1.1 percentage points, and I expect Kerry to make a big deal over Bush's Yucca Mountain decision.

3. I wouldn't waste any resources trying to contest Maryland.