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Excellent post! I agree with just about all of your observations. The three areas where I do have differences:

1. Nebraska should be a lock state. Bush beat Gore here by 29 points.

2. Why do you have Nevada as a lock state? Bush only outpolled Gore/Nader by 1.1 percentage points, and I expect Kerry to make a big deal over Bush's Yucca Mountain decision.

3. I wouldn't waste any resources trying to contest Maryland.

Just have a feeling about Nebraska. Seems to be trending more like Iowa and Minnesota rather than like Kansas and Missouri.

Nevada, with an influx of businesses from California, seems to be trending more towards the Republican party.

Maryland is, in my opinion, prime for a conservative flip. Much like the saying, "A conservative is a liberal who has been mugged", Maryland has been mugged time and time again by liberals and the exodus to Virginia has shown that people are fed up with it. I wouldn't target Baltimore with ads, but I would make sure that the Virginia campaign reached across the border to hit rural Maryland.