Posted on 02/10/2004 6:27:23 AM PST by CWW
'Passion' poised for heavenly B.O.
Mon Feb 9, 7:00 PM ET
Carl DiOrio
(Variety) The movie that couldn't find a distributor a year ago is now poised to become this year's first surprise hit.
Though not a single television ad has aired for "The Passion of the Christ" two weeks before its release, Mel Gibson (news)'s depiction of the crucifixion of Jesus is eclipsing mainstream Hollywood fare in audience interest.
Fostered by wide media coverage and a grassroots marketing campaign aimed at evangelical Christians, "Passion" is registering numbers on recent surveys by Nielsen NRG that suggest an opening in the $15 million-$30 million range.
The figures top those for pics whose heavy TV campaigns are well under way, such as Adam Sandler (news) laffer "50 First Dates," which opens Friday, and Warner Bros.' "Welcome to Mooseport," which will opens Feb. 27, two days post-"Passion."
Icon Prods. and its domestic distrib partner Newmarket Films won't start a TV ad campaign until later this week.
Not that they've needed one.
The film, and the controversy over whether it is anti-Semitic, has kept the media's attention on "Passion."
This week, star James Caviezel is on the cover of Newsweek in character as Jesus with the headline, "Who Really Killed Jesus?" Next Monday, ABC's "Primetime Live" devotes a full hour in sweeps to "Passion," including an interview of Gibson by Diane Sawyer.
"It's one of the most talked about films since the first 'Star Wars' prequel," said Exhibitor Relations prexy Paul Dergarabedian.
The anti-Semitism debate has probably helped the pic, he said.
"Controversy is a double-edged sword. It can either boost your chances or derail you," Dergarabedian added. With "Passion," "People are intrigued. I've never seen all these pieces of the puzzle come together before."
Tracking numbers on "Passion" are a far cry from the dismal commercial expectations once widely held, even by Gibson himself. At a 2002 press conference announcing the project, he said, "No one wants to touch something in two dead languages. They think I'm insane --- maybe I am."
In the most recent NRG poll, 16% picked "The Passion" as their first-choice pic to see the weekend it opens. "50 First Dates" drew 13%.
Among pics opening that weekend, the No. 2 first-choice pick is DreamWorks' teen raunchfest "Eurotrip" at 3%. Along with it and "Mooseport," other openers that weekend are the Meg Ryan (news) boxing drama "Against the Ropes" and Disney's "Confessions of a Teenage Drama Queen." Last year, late February saw "Old School" open at $17.4 milion and "Cradle 2 the Grave" open to $16.5 million.
Tracking data show interest in "Passion" skewing toward older filmgoers but equally balanced between men and women.
Total awareness for "Passion" is 60%, but much higher among men and women over 25, where it tops 80%. First-choice ratings for men and women over 25 is 23%, while it is rated around 10% for those under 25.
Tracking data is tightly controlled by Nielsen NRG and its studio clients because predicting box office from NRG numbers is more of an art than a science.
Nonetheless, the big tracking numbers for "Passion" have created ripples at rival studios.
"They're very high --- expectedly so," said one distrib exec. "It's one of those films where awareness is high across all demos."
On another lot, an exec said, "The picture is going to open huge."
"Passion," which personally cost Gibson $25 million to produce, is set to be released on around 2,000 screens.
Making a "Passion" prediction is more difficult because there is not a similar pic --- a subtitled religious pic --- to which execs can compare it.
However, even if the film hit the low end of the estimated range, it would be an impressive feat for a picture featuring graphic violence, ancient-lingo dialogue and subtitles.
"Like everyone else, I have no idea how it's going to do," said Dergarabedian. "We don't have anything to go on."
Opening B.O. will be bolstered by unusual pre-sales.
Icon has pitched "Passion" as a tool for churches to recruit new members and encouraged congregations to buy out entire showings of the pic. Churches have responded by buying up blocks of tickets in the thousands.
Last week, online ticket seller Fandango reported that "Passion" tickets accounted for 43% of all its sales.
Though industry execs anticipate a big opening, they disagree on how it'll play long term.
One exec predicted, "I personally think it's going to do $100 million-plus."
Others, though, are more cautious. "I don't think there will be any repeat business," said one. "Everybody will say I've done my religious duty after they've seen it one time."
Copyright © 2003 Reed Business Information, a division of Reed Elsevier Inc. Variety is a registered trademark of Reed Elsevier Properties Inc. and used under license. All Rights Reserved.
I think that's wrong. And let's remember that there are probably 50 million Americans who refuse to see the movies that Hollywood makes these days -- but they may all want to see The Passion.
Take that, Abe Foxman!
This snide little remark shows just how scared Hollywierd is of this movie. They are absolutely terrified that the message and THE WORD is going to be seen and listened too my millions.
They know that the more business and press that The Passion gets, the more people that will turn away from the degradation and filth that people like this yahoo have staked thier lives on.
This guy epitomizes the Hollywierd community --in the words of Jack Nicholson. "The Truth? YOU CAN'T HANDLE THE TRUTH!"
Snotty comment and probably from a studio who snubbed Gibson's request for distribution and would now like to secretly shoot itself in the head.
I've seen "Passion of The Christ". I was fortunate enough to attend a preview. I intend to see it again.
So at least one person (me) is going to prove this fool wrong and I suspect that many, many others will do the same.
Prairie
1. everyone should carry a pack of Kleenex
2. Every church should be VERY prepared to receive a large number of folks for salvation counselling & discipleship followup; even greater than ANYTHING they had ever had in their history.
Good point.
Good idea! Most people who sees this film are going to have an extraordinary Lent and Easter. Seeing it during that time will be simply incredible. Seeing it on Good Friday or anytime during Holy Week......indescribable.
Prairie
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