Kentucky Special Election Could Be Precursor of Country's Preferences for General Elections

NACS Online ^ | February 5, 2004

[Republican Wildcat]

ALEXANDRIA, VA -- You don't have to wait until November 2 to see how the Congressional elections will shape the country's political agenda for at least the next two years: an important Congressional test will occur on February 17 for Kentucky's open House of Representatives seat.

The election became necessary after Republican Congressman Ernie Fletcher vacated it upon being elected governor in the November 2003 elections.

The February 17 election will determine who will finish Fletcher's two-year term as the 6th District representative for the Lexington-based seat.

The Republican candidate is State Sen. Alice Forgy Kerr, who received an endorsement from U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell. Kerr, who is in her second term as a state senator will face former state Attorney Democrat General Ben Chandler, who lost to Gov. Fletcher in the gubernatorial election.

"This race will be down to the wire," said Pat Hicks, president of the Kentucky Association of Convenience Stores. "Ben Chandler has the name recognition, since he just ran for governor, but we are backing State Sen. Alice Forgy Kerr."

Kentucky's 6th District, which includes Frankfort and Lexington, encompasses 16 counties in central Kentucky. It is a Republican-leaning district and in 2000, President Bush carried the 6th District with 55.5 percent of the vote. Gov. Fletcher also won the district during his recent gubernatorial race by 55.6 percent of the vote. And, in previous congressional elections, Fletcher consistently won the seat by solid margins, garnering 53 percent in 1998, 53 percent again in 2000 and 72 percent in 2002.

Anther special Congressional election that will take place before the November general elections is for the South Dakota-At Large seat, vacated by Congressman Bill Janklow (R-SD) who resigned after being found guilty of manslaughter charges as a result of a fatal traffic accident. The special election, to be held June 1, will likely pit Republican Larry Diedrich against Democrat Stephanie Herseth to determine who will serve out the remaining seven months of Janklow's term.

There is also another potential special election on the political horizon: Congressman Billy Tauzin (R-LA), chairman of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, is expected to resign his chairmanship on February 16. It is still unclear if he will finish his term or retire from Congress completely, which would prompt a special election in Southern Louisiana.

NACSPAC Election Analysis is a continuing series in NACS Daily that looks at key races, issues and events that will affect the makeup--and agenda--of our elected leaders in Washington, with stories running weekly leading up to Election Day on Tuesday, November 2.

[Republican Wildcat]

Kerr for Congress

[Republican Wildcat]

Ping

[skinkinthegrass]

ky. BTTT.. :)

[rmmcdaniell]

I believe Republican candidates generally do better in special elections, as mostly die-hard voters show up to the polls. It will be interesting to see how the recent leftward lurch of the party has affected those voters, if at all. If this is a low turnout election (relative to other special elections) and the dem wins, it spells serious trouble for the GOP going into November.

[Galactic Overlord-In-Chief]

Let's see:

Alice Forgy Kerr: I like what I've heard about her. Chandler doesn't seem to be a better candidate than he was for governor, and his slim lead seems based on name recognition. I think Chandler is just going to put people off, and Kerr takes it 51%-52%.

Larry Diedrich: Sounds like a solid guy. Stephanie Herseth ran up the margins against Janklow because of his unpopularity among some Republicans. Diedrich doesn't seem to have any baggage, and South Dakota is a Republican state. On the other hand, Herseth has name recognition from the last race.

Billy Tauzin: I'm not sure he's going to resign. He's already said he's not running for reelection. Former gubernatorial candidate Hunt Downer has already said he's in the race if Tauzin goes. Downer is a conservative Democrat turned Republican much like Tauzin. Unlike Chandler, Downer carried a lot of the congressional district he plans to run in.

[Theodore R.]

I remember in 1989 that a liberal IN Democrat woman was elected to fill the House seat once held by then Vice President Quayle. It was the Dan Coats seat that went Democrat. The Democrats had a "field day" over that victory.

[Republican Wildcat]

bttt

[skinkinthegrass]

...and his slim lead seems based on name recognition. I think Chandler is just going to put people off, and Kerr takes it 51%-52%.

I hope she (Kerr)gets that much...of course, liberal print media loves Chandler.

BTTT!

[Republican Wildcat]

Kerr seems to be winning the air war. She has 3 different ads running now. The NRCC is also running an ad making a total of 4 running at the same time on her behalf.

If you haven't seen that ad with the dog go to her website and download it. It's hilarious.

[Republican Wildcat]

bttt

[Republican Wildcat]

bttt

[MeekOneGOP]

[BlueOneGolf]

BUMP-A-RAMA for KY Special Election!! Alice will be a great
Congresswoman.

[KQQL]

U.S. House, KY 6th District
1/27/2004

Chandler (D)
54%

Kerr (R)
44%

Other/Undecided
2%

Data Collected
1/24/04 - 1/26/04

Geography
KY 6th Cong. District

Sample Population
572 Certain Voters

Margin of Error
4.2%


http://surveyusa.com/currentelectionpolls.html

[ambrose]

If Chandler wins, we'll hear no end of it as the national media trumpets the coming defeat of Bush.

If Kerr wins, we won't hear so much as a peep from the national media.

[windchime]

Bump!

[KQQL]

dailykos.com predicts a RAT win in KY06....says Kerr is in trouble for associating hereself with W

[ambrose]

More likely her Rat opponent has a lot of name ID, and the party in power historically does poorly in off year elections... 2002 being an notable exception.

[Republican Wildcat]

That poll is a bit dated at this point.

[Republican Wildcat]

dailyKOs is a pro-Democrat site. Of course they'll predict a Dem win.

Also the person who posted that has some serious factual errors. The 6th district is most certainly not a Republican-majority district--far, far from it. There were no scheduled Bush appearances to be "cancelled", and Kerr has voiced open disagreement with the President on a number of issues, the most prominent of which were the Mars/Moon missions and the immigration proposal, so that's another lie. There's only one poll from awhile ago that's public so there is nothing to give credence to the claim her poll numbers are "dropping." There's also no evidence that Bush's popularity has dropped in Kentucky by any significant degree if at all.

In fact I would almost put money that the person who posted that is the troll that was zotted on this website for posting under multiple names from multiple states having conversations with himself to discourage and demoralize voters. In the least they are following the same talking-points, because it's exactly the same nonsense posted previously by that troll. I did some research and alerted the mods, and JimRob confirmed they were all the same person and dealt with 'them' accordingly.