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Kerry has edge on economy, Bush viewed as better leader
PRINCETON, NJ -- The latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll shows Massachusetts senator and potential Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry leading President George W. Bush by a 53% to 43% margin in a trial-heat matchup among likely voters. The poll also probed deeper into Americans' views of Kerry and Bush, and finds both candidates have relative strengths and weaknesses. Americans are slightly more likely to see Kerry's political views, rather Bush's views, as acceptable. Neither candidate has a decided advantage on war issues, but Kerry appears to have an edge on the economy. In terms of personality characteristics, Americans tend to think of Kerry as a champion of the average American, while they view Bush as the stronger leader. The poll, conducted Jan. 29-Feb. 1 and prior to Tuesday's Democratic primaries and caucuses in seven states, shows Kerry as the strongest Democratic challenger to Bush at this point in the campaign. Kerry's relative standing to Bush has changed dramatically in recent weeks. A Jan. 9-11 CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll showed Bush with a 12-point lead over Kerry among likely voters, for a net shift of 19 points. Kerry currently has a higher favorable rating than Bush does -- 61% of Americans view Kerry favorably, while just 52% view Bush positively. Kerry's favorable rating surged following his wins in the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary, from 31% to 61%, and is the most positive among the Democratic presidential candidates. Policy Views When asked to describe the overall political views of Kerry and Bush, 46% of Americans say Kerry's views are "about right," 29% say they are too liberal, and 8% say they are too conservative. A smaller percentage, 36%, says Bush's political views are about right. The plurality of Americans say Bush is too conservative (39%), while about one in five (18%) say his views are too liberal.
Looking at specific issues, neither candidate appears to have a decided edge on war-related issues, at least based on the results of the two questions on the issue. Half of Americans say they would trust Kerry more than Bush to decide whether to send U.S. troops to war, while 45% take the opposing view. On the other hand, half believe Bush would do a better job handling the situation in Iraq, while 44% think Kerry would.
On the economy, Kerry appears to have a slight edge. The poll asked about three specific economic concerns, and Kerry did no worse than tie Bush on each. Specifically, by a 53% to 41% margin, Americans say they have more trust in Kerry than in Bush to protect their families' economic interests. Kerry has a slightly larger advantage, 56% to 36%, on the matter of making sure good jobs are available to all Americans. The two candidates are essentially tied on making sure business conditions and the stock market are good, with 46% expressing more confidence in Kerry and 45% in Bush.
Personal Characteristics Even at this early stage in the campaign, the American public has fairly distinct views of the two candidates' personal characteristics. Generally speaking, Kerry is viewed as more in tune with the needs of the average American, while Bush is seen as having better leadership characteristics. ADVANTAGE ON PERSONAL CHARACTERISTICS AND TRAITS
Kerry's relative strengths are the perceptions that he is "in touch with the problems ordinary Americans face," "puts the country's interests ahead of his own political interests," and "shares your values." Conversely, Bush has an advantage for "standing up for what he believes in," for being "patriotic," and for being a "strong and decisive leader." The two candidates are more evenly matched on having a likeable personality and being able to manage the government effectively. As the campaign continues, the candidates will strive to draw greater distinctions between themselves on policy issues and on their qualifications for leading the country for the next four years. In the current political environment, Kerry appears to be a strong challenger to Bush. However, Kerry still has some apparent weaknesses in relation to Bush. Survey Methods These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,001 adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Jan. 29-Feb. 1, 2004. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls. 8. Next, we'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of these people -- or if you have never heard of them. First, ... How about... [ITEM A READ FIRST, THEN ITEMS B-D ROTATED, ITEM E READ LAST]
B. John Kerry
20. For each of the following candidates, please say whether you think his political views are too conservative, about right, or too liberal. How about –[RANDOM ORDER]? A. George W. Bush
B. John Kerry
21. Thinking about the following characteristics and qualities, please say whether you think each one applies more to John Kerry or more to George W. Bush. How about –[RANDOM ORDER]? A. Shares your values
B. Is in touch with the problems ordinary Americans face
C. Is a strong and decisive leader
D. Can manage the government effectively
E. Puts the country's interests ahead of his own political interests
F. Has a likeable personality
G. Is patriotic
H. Stands up for what he believes in
22. If a situation arose that required the president to make a decision about sending U.S. troops to war, who would you trust more to make that decision – [ROTATED: John Kerry, (or) George W. Bush]? BASED ON –469—NATIONAL ADULTS IN FORM A
23. Who do you think would do a better job handling the situation in Iraq– [ROTATED: John Kerry, (or) George W. Bush]? BASED ON –532—NATIONAL ADULTS IN FORM B
24. Next, regardless of which presidential candidate you support, would you say you have more confidence in John Kerry or George W. Bush to -- [RANDOM ORDER]? A. Protect your family's economic interests
B. Make sure business conditions and the stock market are as good as possible
C. Make sure good jobs are available to all Americans
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Pour me another glass of that delicious Kerry Kool-Aid, wouldya?