Posted on 02/03/2004 11:35:38 AM PST by cogitator
Measure 30 backers brace for worst
As election draws nearer, mood is bleak among school advocates
PORTLAND — With the Measure 30 tax vote looming, school advocates in Oregon say they are steeling themselves for its failure.
If voters turn down the three-year, temporary increase in the income tax on Feb. 3, schools stand to automatically lose $285 million.
Polls for the measure have suggested it will fail, and pro-tax advocates don't have the money to gear up for a last-minute all-out TV media blitz that might make the difference, leaving school advocates resigned to at least another year of budget cuts.
"We are feeling that it is probably going to fail," said Nellie Franklin, whose son is a senior at Burns High School in southeastern Oregon. "I thought, maybe people will start realizing this is real, but they are still thinking, 'Oh they have the money ratholed away somewhere.' "
The mood is just the opposite, though, for Measure 30 opponents like Dan Ziegler, who has founded the Corvallis Coalition for Responsible School Funding, and says his local school district needs to reduce spending on teacher salaries and benefits before asking for more money from taxpayers.
Some school districts were prudent in budgeting by assuming schools will get only $4.8 billion from the state, not the $5.2 billion they will receive if the tax increase passes, said Richard Burke, executive director of the state Libertarian Party, which also opposes Measure 30.
Burke argues that districts that drafted budgets based on the higher number were "irresponsible. They are the ones that have the pressure on them."
If the measure does fail, Oregon schools will find themselves in familiar territory. Last winter, Oregon voters turned down a similar tax measure, Measure 28, forcing about half of the state's schools to shut down early and prompting teacher layoffs statewide.
Lawmakers spent the longest legislative session in state history wrangling over how to fix the state's budget problems, caused by a decline in income tax collections, and finally agreed on a three-year temporary income tax surcharge, to raise $800 million for schools, social services and public safety.
But most schools didn't breathe easy even then, figuring that the Legislature's bipartisan decision would be referred to the ballot, and ultimately decided on by Oregon's perenially anti-tax voters.
That scenario came true, and now some school advocates find themselves struggling to stay optimistic in the last days before the votes are counted.
"I think there is a sliver of hope," said Mike Moran, the chairman of the Medford school board. "There has been some pretty blunt education of voters this time around. I think that it could go the right way."
And if it doesn't, in Medford, the school district has contingency plans in place: high school counselors may go, as well as the elementary school music program, and 10 teaching positions from the high school, Moran said.
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And this is an interesting perspective on Measure 30 from an Oregon Republican legislator:
Measure 30: Immediate solutions needed
Opponents of Measure 30, the Legislature’s balanced-budget tax plan, have raised several arguments against it that need to be rebutted. In the interest of informed public discussion of the measure, I have addressed and responded to some of the common arguments and questions, below.
You don’t raise taxes in a recession. Taxes are a drag on the economy and a tax increase could affect our recovery from recession, agreed. But cutting essential services now would be worse. Services such as education, human services and public safety are vital to a healthy economy. And demand for these services has risen, even while our general fund revenue has fallen at a rate not seen since the Great Depression.
On balance, the potential long-term harm from cutting services would be greater than any short-term negative impact that might follow from Measure 30.
Why are schools, police and the Oregon Health Plan targeted for cuts if Measure 30 fails? We spend 95 percent of our general fund budget on education, public safety and human services. If Measure 30 fails and the state loses hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue, the cuts will necessarily fall on those programs and services because that’s where we spend the money.
The sky didn’t fall when voters rejected Measure 28 last year. What’s different this time? When Measure 28 was defeated, there were serious consequences. Schools cut school days. Courts closed. Thousands of violations and crimes were delayed or not even prosecuted. Oregon Health Plan benefits were slashed. And things would have been even worse if the Legislature had not borrowed $450 million to avoid shutting down whole agencies and programs.
There will be no more borrowing if Measure 30 fails. There are no more easy answers. Cuts in critical services will have to be made, and the consequences will be real.
Why doesn’t the Legislature just cut spending? The legislature has cut spending. After revenue started to decline in 2001, the Legislature cut $1.112 billion from the approved budget. Per-student spending fell 7.1 percent during 2002. The approved budget for 2003-05 is 5 percent less than the approved budget for 2001-03.
We don’t need a tax increase; we need to reform government. We need both. The 2003 Legislature made some major reforms. We reformed PERS, reducing the unfunded liability by $8 billion and cutting employer contributions. We ended “continuing service level” budgeting. We moved to streamline the regulatory process. We should always be reinventing government to provide better services at the lowest cost to taxpayers. Opponents of Measure 30 have offered some worthwhile suggestions for further reforms. But we have an immediate budget shortfall that won’t be fixed by long-term reforms. Only Measure 30 will provide revenue in this biennium to address our needs now.
Measure 30 presents voters with stark choices and complex issues. There may be no good time to raise taxes. But there’s no worse time than now to cut the essential services we need to move Oregon forward. That’s why I’m supporting Measure 30 and urge Oregonians to do likewise.
Sure, I believe that...
Don't those tax payer know that their elected officals view them, and their hard earned money, as a bottomless pit of money that they can grab for any and all moronic tax wasting ideas that they can think of.
I do declare, the vile nerve of those tax payers.
Do you really think so? I disagree with you; I think the failure of Measure 30 would send a great message to the rest of the country, to whit: "We don't believe you, legislators of (choose your state), when you say that more revenue is needed. We want you to keep cutting services until you can prove that we need what's left when you're done cutting!"
Or this message: "Let our school system go downhill. If families with kids don't like it, they can move to another state with better schools and better teachers!"
Or this message: "Why should we care about PUBLIC safety? I'm safe. Isn't that what matters most?"
Or maybe even this message: "If somebody is disabled, then it certainly won't matter if it takes the state a few extra days to process their welfare check. After all, they aren't really contributing to society as much as a normal person."
Oregonians should send a clear message. Go Beavers! Go Ducks!
enraged, why does Rep. Shetterly say that 95% of the general fund budget in Oregon goes for education, public safey, and human services? Just curious.
Sure, I believe that...
But, it's true - temporarily raise the income tax now and in 3 years, raise it again, which negates this instance of it...
a would bet most of these people are probably working class democrats....
What's your definition of "hurt"? Who? Where? How? What do you value? What are you willing to lose?
Actually Oregonians are thinking that the state legislature continues to waste too much of the taxpayer's money. So why should the taxpayers give them even more money to waste by voting for a tax increase?
The question therefore should be: Is the state government/state legislature of Oregon wasting too much of the taxpayer's money? And if they don't think they are (wasting the taxpayer's money), can the taxpayers show them where it's being wasted?
I don't know if they can; it would be nice if they could. Then the state legislature wouldn't have to cut people off from their Oregon Health Plan benefits, among other things that will be automatically cut when Measure 30 fails.
Why doesn't the Oregon state government cut non-essential state programs and services instead of cutting school programs and vital public services? Why doesn't the Oregon state government threaten to lay off six-figure salaried bureaucrats instead of threatening to close or cut back programs that would hurt the children, the elderly, and the poor? Probably because nobody would care if non-essential state services were cut or if fat cat state bureaucrats lost their jobs. But people listen when legislators make their emotional pleas about protecting the children, the elderly, and the poor as they beg for more tax money to waste.
Even if this figure is correct, it wouldn't necessarily mean that this money is being spent efficiently on education, public safey, and human services.
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