Posted on 02/03/2004 9:00:57 AM PST by Publius
Republicans have represented Washington's 8th District in Congress since the suburban enclave's inception in 1982, but Democrats think they could win the suddenly open seat under the right circumstances.
State Republican Party Chairman Chris Vance reluctantly agrees.
"The 8th is a natural Republican district. But if we pick the wrong Republican (as the district's nominee), we lose the 8th District," Vance said yesterday, three days after U.S. Rep. Jennifer Dunn announced her retirement, setting off a stampede of potential candidates to succeed her.
Nonetheless, the list of well-known Republicans considering the race was far longer than the list of well-known Democrats yesterday.
Probably the two most prominent GOP prospects, both of whom said they will announce their decisions by Thursday, are King County Sheriff Dave Reichert and conservative talk-radio host John Carlson, the party's nominee for governor in 2000.
Reichert, 53, "will announce his decision Thursday at noon," John Urquhart, the sheriff's spokesman, said. He noted that Reichert "has always said he's open to other opportunities, and this certainly is another opportunity."
Reichert's position is non-partisan, but he considered running for governor this year as a Republican.
Carlson, 44, considered running for the 8th District seat in 1992 but stepped aside when Dunn, his mentor, became a candidate. He said yesterday that he expects to announce his decision tomorrow or Thursday.
"The only question is whether this is the right time to leave a very well-paying job and become a commuting congressman because our family is here," Carlson said. He is married with two sons, ages 8 and 6.
State Democratic Party Chairman Paul Berendt said Democratic officials have been pleased with the candidacy of former RealNetworks executive Alex Alben of Mercer Island, who launched a challenge to Dunn several months ago. But Berendt said he wouldn't be surprised to see other Democrats join the race now that the popular Dunn isn't running.
GOP sources said Republican campaign officials and interest groups in Washington, D.C., have circulated a list of four local Republicans who are considered good prospects: Carlson, Reichert, King County Republican Chairwoman Pat Herbold and King County Councilman David Irons Jr. of Sammamish.
Herbold, 63, said she is "waiting to see what develops in terms of what all the other potential candidates decide to do," but she is talking to party officials about a possible candidacy and expects to decide "in the next couple of days."
"But the goal of all of us should be to unite behind the strongest possible candidate and make sure we don't lose that seat," the party leader added.
Part of Herbold's appeal in the GOP is that she is wealthy and could finance a big portion of her own campaign. She and her husband, Bob Herbold, a retired Microsoft Corp. executive, are friends of President Bush. Bob Herbold was urged by GOP leaders to run for governor but decided against it last August.
Irons, 51, said he was "flattered to get a call from people in D.C." and will make up his mind in two to four weeks.
He already had planned a trip to the nation's capital next week to do some lobbying on behalf of King County and said he intends to meet with party and congressional officials there.
Rod Chandler was the first Republican to represent the 8th District after it was created 24 years ago, and Dunn succeeded him in 1992 when Chandler made a failed bid for the U.S. Senate. The district stretches from the eastern King-Snohomish county boundary through Bellevue, Covington, Auburn, Bonney Lake and Eatonville to the Pierce-Lewis county line.
Vance said the GOP's challenge, if it is to hold onto the seat, is to nominate "a Republican who speaks 'cul de sac' " -- someone who can speak to the education, transportation, safety and other concerns of the district, which forms a suburban crescent to the east and south of Seattle in eastern King and Pierce counties.
One soccer-mom issue could be a potential problem for a GOP candidate: abortion. Karen Cooper, executive director of NARAL Pro-Choice Washington, said the voting patterns of the 8th show it has become "the most pro-choice district in Washington" outside the 7th District in Seattle.
Berendt noted that while the district has never elected a Democrat to Congress, the 8th has favored a lot of other Democrats -- including Bill Clinton, Al Gore, Sen. Patty Murray and Gov. Gary Locke. Democrats recently have won state legislative seats in the once solidly Republican 41st, 45th and 48th districts.
Other Republicans who say they are considering the race include state Sen. Luke Esser of Bellevue, the Senate Republican floor leader; Diane Tebelius of Bellevue, a former assistant U.S. attorney and a member of the Republican National Committee; and state Sen. Pam Roach of Auburn, who has run for various elective offices the past three years in a row. Roach opposed Dunn in the Republican primary in 1992.
Cheryl Pflug of Maple Valley, who recently was appointed to the state Senate after serving in the House, said she hasn't ruled out a candidacy but is "not going to think about it until after the legislative session," which doesn't end until mid-March.
Tony Ventrella, TV reporter and anchor on KCPQ/13, has told Democratic officials he is considering running, Berendt said.
The Democratic chairman said his party's potential candidates also include Laurie McDonald Jonsson, a business executive who lives in Medina.
Another possibility is state Rep. Laura Ruderman of Kirkland, although she is an announced candidate for secretary of state.
Another prospect, state Rep. Ross Hunter, D-Medina, said he isn't running. So did former state Rep. Christopher Hurst, D-Enumclaw. Republican Jeff Kemp, a former Seattle Seahawks quarterback and head of Families Northwest, a family advocacy group, said he also won't be running.
Vance flatly denied rumors that he might become a candidate.
Gore captured this district, and Jennifer's margin of victory over Hapless Heidi shrank in each election. It is trending more and more Democratic, and I don't think I'm going out on a limb by predicting a Democratic pickup for this seat.
Certainly sounds like he's running. "Announce his decision Thursday at noon" means "let me round up supporters for a campaign kickoff/press conference".
We may not know what to expect from a policy standpoint, but at least he's honest, s'far as I can figure.
Yes, I agree. I wonder if the fallout from the Green River murderers plea bargain can come back and harm the Sheriff? He was the original lead investigator and this case was his baby.
The plea agreement was a criminal defense attorney dream come true. All capital cases being argued and has been argued lately is affected by this. After-all, if we won't execute Gary Ridgeway, how can we execute a garden variety multiple murderer? This will be the most interesting local race, IMHO.
What was the public reaction to that? I understand they traded the death penalty for full disclosure of crimes, location of bodies, and whatnot. (I think there's a Law & Order like that . . .) And that the prosecutor and Reichert were fine with the deal.
I'm rather annoyed with the 45th. In the last couple of campaigns for the state house, I've seen maybe a dozen volunteers turn out. And we've done door drops for many a precinct that didn't even have a PCO. It's no wonder the Democrats are making inroads.
That's the problem. The legislature is working as we type trying to close the loopholes that allowed King County Prosecutor Norm Maleng, (A Republican), to plea bargain away the death penalty with the Ridgeway case.
Anyone noticing a trend for rich wives to run for Congress as a hobby?
Sorta like Sen. K B Hutchison did in Texas?
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