Skip to comments.Vote analysis of Prop. 187, the illegal alien initiative
Posted on 01/28/2004 11:57:41 AM PST by Sabertooth
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Since President Bush announced his plan to legalize some of the 8 to 12 million Illegal Aliens currently violating American immigration law this past January 7th, debate has raged, only in this forum, but also throughout the country, about the wisdom of the Presidents Amnesty proposal, both as policy and as politics.
The watershed event in electoral politics regarding Illegal Aliens was Californias Proposition #187, in 1994. Many statistics and references get tossed around, not all of them accurate, so its necessary to go back to the source and reproduce the analysis of the Proposition #187 electoral results here.
Its important to note that the 1994 elections were pivotal, not only in California, where the Republicans took control of the State Assembly for the first time in decades, but also nationally, where the GOP took control of both the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives for the first time in 40 years.
The figures in the table below give a demographic breakdown of the Yes and No votes of Proposition #187.
Note the huge majorities voting Yes on #187 among Independents (61%), Men (62%), non-Hispanic Whites (64%), Seniors (66%), Conservatives (76%), and Republicans (76%).
Note the majorities in favor of #187 Among Blacks (52%), Asians (52%), Moderates (56%), and College graduates ( 54%), Women (56%).
While these figures are ten years old, and limited to California, its remarkable how close they are to current polls of Americans on issues such as welfare or Amnesty for Illegal Aliens.
Here is an issue that cuts decidedly for Republicans, even among many traditional Democrat constituencies. With all of the Democrat Presidential candidates favoring Amnesties for Illegal Aliens, the Republican Party should be poised to make huge inroads into the Democrat voter base, and win a decisive and Historic majority in the House and Senate, along with the reelection of President Bush. Such a victory would represent a realignment of American politics not seen since Franklin Roosevelt and the Democrats swept into power with the New Deal in the 1930s.
The only problem is, many Republican politicians, including President Bush, are decisively on the wrong side of the Illegal Alien issue, to the point of proposing millions of them be legalized in a temporary guest worker program that functions little differently than the Illegal Alien Amnesty of Ronal Reagan did in 1986. That Amnesty also legalized millions of Illegals as temporary residents, yet many of them eventually obtained permanent residence and citizenship. As with the Reagan Amnesty, both green cards and citizenship would ultimately be available to legalized Illegals under the Bush Amnesty.
The upshot is strife within the Republican Party between the rank and file and the politicians. At a moment when the GOP could be hammering toward Historic realignment, our leaders are digging in their heels against it.
Illegal Aliens will be a hot issue throughout the 2004 Election. Ballot Initiatives against Illegals are on their way to qualifying in the border states of California and Arizona, and will likely pass with the type of voter support seen in 1994 for Proposition #187, despite the opposition of many Republican and Democrat political leaders.
Where this will end is anyones guess, but its crucial that Republican voters pressure our politicians now to end their support for Illegal Aliens, so that the GOP can ride the crest to President Bushs reelection and huge majorities in the House and Senate this November.
DENVER - Twenty-three congressmen warned President Bush in a letter yesterday that he risks an election-year backlash from Republican voters if he continues to press his guest-worker proposal.
I guess we'llsoon find out how prescient Art 'last gasp' Torres really was.
...I agree with them!
"Since the President's speech, our offices have been inundated with calls from dismayed constituents expressing vehement opposition to the Administration's proposal," said the letter
Besides Mr. Tancredo, the Republican congressmen who signed the letter are:
Reps. Todd Akin of Missouri,
Roscoe G. Bartlett of Maryland,
Ginny Brown-Waite, Jeff Miller and Cliff Stearns of Florida,
Philip M. Crane and Donald Manzullo of Illinois,
Nathan Deal of Georgia,
John J. "Jimmy" Duncan Jr. and Zach Wamp of Tennessee,
Elton Gallegly and Dana Rohrabacher of California,
Scott Garrett of New Jersey,
Virgil H. Goode Jr. of Virginia,
Ernest Istook of Oklahoma,
Walter B. Jones of North Carolina,
Steve King of Iowa,
Steven C. LaTourette of Ohio,
C.L. "Butch" Otter and Mike Simpson of Idaho,
Jim Ryun of Kansas,
and Lamar Smith of Texas.
We need about 600,000 valid signatures by this April
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