Posted on 01/28/2004 11:57:41 AM PST by Sabertooth
Vote analysis of Prop. 187, the illegal alien initiative
Yes No
Statewide Total 59% 41%
(.24) Los Angeles County 56% 44%
(.23) San Francisco Bay Area 45% 55%
(.17) San Diego/Orange 67% 33%
(.15) Central Valley 66% 34%
(.08) Inland Empire 70% 30%
(.07) Central Coast 60% 40%
(.06) North Coast/Sierras 68% 32%
(.40) Democrat 40% 60%
(.40) Republican 76% 24%
(.20) Independent/other 61% 39%
(.37) Conservative 76% 24%
(.45) Moderate 56% 44%
(.18) Liberal 32% 68%
(.49) Male 62% 38%
(.51) Female 56% 44%
(.78) White (non-Hispanic) 64% 36%
(.38) Men 69% 31%
(.40) Women 59% 41%
(.09) Latino 27% 73%
(.07) Black 52% 48%
(.06) Asian 52% 48%
Yes No
(.14) 18-29 49% 51%
(.43) 30-49 58% 42%
(.17) 50-59 59% 41%
(.26) 60 or older 66% 34%
(.22) High school or less 64% 36%
(.34) Some college 64% 36%
(.27) College graduate 54% 46%
(.17) Post graduate degree 48% 52%
(.15) Under $20,000 53% 47%
(.25) $20,000-$40,000 60% 40%
(.24) $40,000-$60,000 59% 41%
(.36) More than $60,000 58% 42%
(.48) Protestant 69% 31%
(.27) Roman Catholic 49% 51%
(.05) Jewish 45% 55%
(.08) Other 53% 47%
(.12) No preference 48% 52%
(.25) 1st or 2nd generation citizen 52% 48%
(.75) 3rd generation or more 60% 40%
Source: Statewide and regional vote percentages are based on official vote totals reported by the Secretary of State. All other demographic subgroup percentages are the averages of two independent exit polls conducted by Voter News Service (n=3,050) and the Los Angeles Times (n=5,336) on November 9, 1994.
This is an Excerpt from the Field Institute's larger 1994 election summary,
Proposition 187, the controversial ballot initiative which makes illegal immigrants ineligible to receive public health and education services, was approved by voters by an 18- point margin, 59% to 41%. An analysis of the vote by regional and demographic subgroups shows the following:
The proposition carried all regions of the state except the Bay Area (where it trailed by 10 points). Support for Prop. 187 was extremely strong in the Inland Empire (+40 points), the North Coast/Sierras (+36 points), San Diego/ Orange (+34 points) and the Central Valley (+32 points).
The vote on Prop. 187 was highly partisan, with Republicans favoring it three to one, and Democrats opposed three to two. Independents favored the initiative by 22 points.
Political ideology was strongly linked to opinions of the initiative. Conservatives were strongly supportive, favor- ing Prop. 187 by 52 points. By contrast, liberals opposed the initiative by 36 points. Political moderates were more divided, but favored it by 12 points.
Support for Prop. 187 was strongest among white non- Hispanic voters (+28 points), and especially white males (+38 points). Latinos, on the other hand, voted No by a 73% to 27% margin. Blacks and Asians divided about evenly, with 52% voting in favor and 48% opposed.
The initiative carried among both male and female voters, although men supported it by a larger margin -- 24 points -- versus 12 points among women.
Voters age 60 or older were strongly supportive of the initiative, favoring it by 32 points, while younger voters under age 30 split about evenly on the measure. Majorities of voters age 30 - 59 supported the initiative.
Voters with no more than a high school education and those with some college training favored Prop. 187 by wide 28- point margins. College graduates were also supportive, but by a narrower 8-point margin, whereas those with a post- graduate degree were opposed by 4 points.
Majorities of voters in all income categories supported the initiative.
Protestants favored Prop. 187 by a greater than two to one margin (69% to 31%). On the other hand, Catholics voted against it by a narrow 2-point margin, Jewish voters op- posed it by 10 points and those with no religious preference voted No by a 4-point margin.
The Los Angeles Times exit poll also asked voters whether they were a first generation, second generation or third or more generation U.S. resident. The results show that voters who have resided in the U.S. for three or more generations were more supportive than those who have been here for a shorter period.
Voter Preferences on Proposition 187,
the Illegal Alien Initiative
Region
Party identification
Political ideology
Sex
Ethnicity
Age
Education
Household income
Religion
U.S. residency status
"A summary analysis of Voting in the 1994 General Election"
pdf link here
(Excerpt) Read more at 216.239.57.104 ...
Since President Bush announced his plan to legalize some of the 8 to 12 million Illegal Aliens currently violating American immigration law this past January 7th, debate has raged, only in this forum, but also throughout the country, about the wisdom of the Presidents Amnesty proposal, both as policy and as politics. The watershed event in electoral politics regarding Illegal Aliens was Californias Proposition #187, in 1994. Many statistics and references get tossed around, not all of them accurate, so its necessary to go back to the source and reproduce the analysis of the Proposition #187 electoral results here. Its important to note that the 1994 elections were pivotal, not only in California, where the Republicans took control of the State Assembly for the first time in decades, but also nationally, where the GOP took control of both the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives for the first time in 40 years. The figures in the table below give a demographic breakdown of the Yes and No votes of Proposition #187. Note the huge majorities voting Yes on #187 among Independents (61%), Men (62%), non-Hispanic Whites (64%), Seniors (66%), Conservatives (76%), and Republicans (76%). Note the majorities in favor of #187 Among Blacks (52%), Asians (52%), Moderates (56%), and College graduates ( 54%), Women (56%). While these figures are ten years old, and limited to California, its remarkable how close they are to current polls of Americans on issues such as welfare or Amnesty for Illegal Aliens. Here is an issue that cuts decidedly for Republicans, even among many traditional Democrat constituencies. With all of the Democrat Presidential candidates favoring Amnesties for Illegal Aliens, the Republican Party should be poised to make huge inroads into the Democrat voter base, and win a decisive and Historic majority in the House and Senate, along with the reelection of President Bush. Such a victory would represent a realignment of American politics not seen since Franklin Roosevelt and the Democrats swept into power with the New Deal in the 1930s. The only problem is, many Republican politicians, including President Bush, are decisively on the wrong side of the Illegal Alien issue, to the point of proposing millions of them be legalized in a temporary guest worker program that functions little differently than the Illegal Alien Amnesty of Ronal Reagan did in 1986. That Amnesty also legalized millions of Illegals as temporary residents, yet many of them eventually obtained permanent residence and citizenship. As with the Reagan Amnesty, both green cards and citizenship would ultimately be available to legalized Illegals under the Bush Amnesty. The upshot is strife within the Republican Party between the rank and file and the politicians. At a moment when the GOP could be hammering toward Historic realignment, our leaders are digging in their heels against it. Illegal Aliens will be a hot issue throughout the 2004 Election. Ballot Initiatives against Illegals are on their way to qualifying in the border states of California and Arizona, and will likely pass with the type of voter support seen in 1994 for Proposition #187, despite the opposition of many Republican and Democrat political leaders.
Where this will end is anyones guess, but its crucial that Republican voters pressure our politicians now to end their support for Illegal Aliens, so that the GOP can ride the crest to President Bushs reelection and huge majorities in the House and Senate this November.
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Americans Talk About Illegal Immigration
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DENVER - Twenty-three congressmen warned President Bush in a letter yesterday that he risks an election-year backlash from Republican voters if he continues to press his guest-worker proposal. |
I guess we'llsoon find out how prescient Art 'last gasp' Torres really was.
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...I agree with them!
"Since the President's speech, our offices have been inundated with calls from dismayed constituents expressing vehement opposition to the Administration's proposal," said the letter
...
Besides Mr. Tancredo, the Republican congressmen who signed the letter are:
Reps. Todd Akin of Missouri,
Roscoe G. Bartlett of Maryland,
Ginny Brown-Waite, Jeff Miller and Cliff Stearns of Florida,
Philip M. Crane and Donald Manzullo of Illinois,
Nathan Deal of Georgia,
John J. "Jimmy" Duncan Jr. and Zach Wamp of Tennessee,
Elton Gallegly and Dana Rohrabacher of California,
Scott Garrett of New Jersey,
Virgil H. Goode Jr. of Virginia,
Ernest Istook of Oklahoma,
Walter B. Jones of North Carolina,
Steve King of Iowa,
Steven C. LaTourette of Ohio,
C.L. "Butch" Otter and Mike Simpson of Idaho,
Jim Ryun of Kansas,
and Lamar Smith of Texas.
We need about 600,000 valid signatures by this April
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