Vote analysis of Prop. 187, the illegal alien initiative

The Field Institute (PDF via Google HTML) ^ | January 1995

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Vote analysis of Prop. 187, the illegal alien initiative

Proposition 187, the controversial ballot initiative which makes illegal immigrants ineligible to receive public health and education services, was approved by voters by an 18- point margin, 59% to 41%. An analysis of the vote by regional and demographic subgroups shows the following:

    The proposition carried all regions of the state except the Bay Area (where it trailed by 10 points). Support for Prop. 187 was extremely strong in the Inland Empire (+40 points), the North Coast/Sierras (+36 points), San Diego/ Orange (+34 points) and the Central Valley (+32 points).

    The vote on Prop. 187 was highly partisan, with Republicans favoring it three to one, and Democrats opposed three to two. Independents favored the initiative by 22 points.

    Political ideology was strongly linked to opinions of the initiative. Conservatives were strongly supportive, favor- ing Prop. 187 by 52 points. By contrast, liberals opposed the initiative by 36 points. Political moderates were more divided, but favored it by 12 points.

    Support for Prop. 187 was strongest among white non- Hispanic voters (+28 points), and especially white males (+38 points). Latinos, on the other hand, voted No by a 73% to 27% margin. Blacks and Asians divided about evenly, with 52% voting in favor and 48% opposed.

    The initiative carried among both male and female voters, although men supported it by a larger margin -- 24 points -- versus 12 points among women.

    Voters age 60 or older were strongly supportive of the initiative, favoring it by 32 points, while younger voters under age 30 split about evenly on the measure. Majorities of voters age 30 - 59 supported the initiative.

    Voters with no more than a high school education and those with some college training favored Prop. 187 by wide 28- point margins. College graduates were also supportive, but by a narrower 8-point margin, whereas those with a post- graduate degree were opposed by 4 points.

    Majorities of voters in all income categories supported the initiative.

    Protestants favored Prop. 187 by a greater than two to one margin (69% to 31%). On the other hand, Catholics voted against it by a narrow 2-point margin, Jewish voters op- posed it by 10 points and those with no religious preference voted No by a 4-point margin.

    The Los Angeles Times exit poll also asked voters whether they were a first generation, second generation or third or more generation U.S. resident. The results show that voters who have resided in the U.S. for three or more generations were more supportive than those who have been here for a shorter period.

Table 6
Voter Preferences on Proposition 187,
the Illegal Alien Initiative

	Yes	No
Statewide Total	59%	41%
Region
(.24) Los Angeles County	56%	44%
(.23) San Francisco Bay Area	45%	55%
(.17) San Diego/Orange	67%	33%
(.15) Central Valley	66%	34%
(.08) Inland Empire	70%	30%
(.07) Central Coast	60%	40%
(.06) North Coast/Sierras	68%	32%
Party identification
(.40) Democrat	40%	60%
(.40) Republican	76%	24%
(.20) Independent/other	61%	39%
Political ideology
(.37) Conservative	76%	24%
(.45) Moderate	56%	44%
(.18) Liberal	32%	68%
Sex
(.49) Male	62%	38%
(.51) Female	56%	44%
Ethnicity
(.78) White (non-Hispanic)	64%	36%
(.38) Men	69%	31%
(.40) Women	59%	41%
(.09) Latino	27%	73%
(.07) Black	52%	48%
(.06) Asian	52%	48%

	Yes	No
Age
(.14) 18-29	49%	51%
(.43) 30-49	58%	42%
(.17) 50-59	59%	41%
(.26) 60 or older	66%	34%
Education
(.22) High school or less	64%	36%
(.34) Some college	64%	36%
(.27) College graduate	54%	46%
(.17) Post graduate degree	48%	52%
Household income
(.15) Under $20,000	53%	47%
(.25) $20,000-$40,000	60%	40%
(.24) $40,000-$60,000	59%	41%
(.36) More than $60,000	58%	42%
Religion
(.48) Protestant	69%	31%
(.27) Roman Catholic	49%	51%
(.05) Jewish	45%	55%
(.08) Other	53%	47%
(.12) No preference	48%	52%
U.S. residency status
(.25) 1st or 2nd generation citizen	52%	48%
(.75) 3rd generation or more	60%	40%

Source: Statewide and regional vote percentages are based on official vote totals reported by the Secretary of State. All other demographic subgroup percentages are the averages of two independent exit polls conducted by Voter News Service  (n=3,050) and the Los Angeles Times (n=5,336) on November 9, 1994.

This is an Excerpt from the Field Institute's larger 1994 election summary,
"A summary analysis of Voting in the 1994 General Election"
pdf link here

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Since President Bush announced his plan to legalize some of the 8 to 12 million Illegal Aliens currently violating American immigration law this past January 7th, debate has raged, only in this forum, but also throughout the country, about the wisdom of the President’s Amnesty proposal, both as policy and as politics.

The watershed event in electoral politics regarding Illegal Aliens was California’s Proposition #187, in 1994. Many statistics and references get tossed around, not all of them accurate, so it’s necessary to go back to the source and reproduce the analysis of the Proposition #187 electoral results here.

It’s important to note that the 1994 elections were pivotal, not only in California, where the Republicans took control of the State Assembly for the first time in decades, but also nationally, where the GOP took control of both the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives for the first time in 40 years.

The figures in the table below give a demographic breakdown of the Yes and No votes of Proposition #187.

Note the huge majorities voting Yes on #187 among Independents (61%), Men (62%), non-Hispanic Whites (64%), Seniors (66%), Conservatives (76%), and Republicans (76%).

Note the majorities in favor of #187 Among Blacks (52%), Asians (52%), Moderates (56%), and College graduates ( 54%), Women (56%).

While these figures are ten years old, and limited to California, it’s remarkable how close they are to current polls of Americans on issues such as welfare or Amnesty for Illegal Aliens.

Here is an issue that cuts decidedly for Republicans, even among many traditional Democrat constituencies. With all of the Democrat Presidential candidates favoring Amnesties for Illegal Aliens, the Republican Party should be poised to make huge inroads into the Democrat voter base, and win a decisive and Historic majority in the House and Senate, along with the reelection of President Bush. Such a victory would represent a realignment of American politics not seen since Franklin Roosevelt and the Democrats swept into power with the New Deal in the 1930s.

The only problem is, many Republican politicians, including President Bush, are decisively on the wrong side of the Illegal Alien issue, to the point of proposing millions of them be legalized in a “temporary guest worker” program that functions little differently than the Illegal Alien Amnesty of Ronal Reagan did in 1986. That Amnesty also legalized millions of Illegals as “temporary residents,” yet many of them eventually obtained permanent residence and citizenship. As with the Reagan Amnesty, both green cards and citizenship would ultimately be available to legalized Illegals under the Bush Amnesty.

The upshot is strife within the Republican Party between the rank and file and the politicians. At a moment when the GOP could be hammering toward Historic realignment, our leaders are digging in their heels against it.

Illegal Aliens will be a hot issue throughout the 2004 Election. Ballot Initiatives against Illegals are on their way to qualifying in the border states of California and Arizona, and will likely pass with the type of voter support seen in 1994 for Proposition #187, despite the opposition of many Republican and Democrat political leaders.

Where this will end is anyone’s guess, but it’s crucial that Republican voters pressure our politicians now to end their support for Illegal Aliens, so that the GOP can ride the crest to President Bush’s reelection and huge majorities in the House and Senate this November.

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• 78% of those polled support mandatory detention and forfeiture of property, followed by deportation for anyone here illegally.
• 69% of those polled support a mandatory prison term and forfeiture of property, followed by deportation, for anyone here illegally.
  RoperASW Poll, March 2003

Americans Talk About Illegal Immigration

Americans Talk About Illegal Immigration

RoperASW Poll, March 2003
Prepared for Negative Population Growth

Following are the highlights of the findings of a nationally representative survey of 1,012 American adults (18+) who live in the continental United States. All sample was drawn randomly from an RDD (random digit dialing) list. For more details or to read the full report, click here.

Legal Immigration

Three Americans in Four Would Reduce Number of Immigrants Allowed Annually Into the U.S.

• 76% of those polled prefer legal immigration less than current levels of almost one million a year.
• 58% of those polled prefer legal immigration levels of less than 300,000 a year.
  RoperASW Poll, March 2003

Illegal Immigration

Virtually All Americans Believe Illegal Immigration Is a “Serious” Problem; Majority Believes It Is “Very Serious”

• 85% of those polled believe illegal immigration is a "serious" problem.
• 55% of those polled believe illegal immigration is a "very serious" problem.
  
• 68% of those polled agree with halting illegal immigration as a goal.
• 67% of those polled agree with reducing the number of illegal aliens now present in the United States to near zero as a goal.
  RoperASW Poll, March 2003

Methods to Deal with Illegal Immigration

87% of those polled support sanctions against employers who hire illegal aliens.

To Halt Illegal Immigration, Policy of Mandatory Detention of Illegals Is Preferred Over Prison, but Both Have Strong Support

• 83% of those polled support mandatory detention and forfeiture of property, followed by deportation for anyone here illegally.
• 70% of those polled support a mandatory prison term and forfeiture of property, followed by deportation, for anyone here illegally.
  RoperASW Poll, March 2003

To Reduce Number of Illegal Immigrants to “Near Zero,” Policy of Mandatory Detention of Illegals Is Preferred Over Prison, but Both Have Strong Support

• 78% of those polled support mandatory detention and forfeiture of property, followed by deportation for anyone here illegally.
• 69% of those polled support a mandatory prison term and forfeiture of property, followed by deportation, for anyone here illegally.
  RoperASW Poll, March 2003

Employers and Illegal Immigration

Majority of Americans Support Verification and Sanctions Against Employers Who Hire Illegal Aliens

• 87% of those polled agree and 69% strongly agree that the Federal government should strictly enforce present laws calling for criminal penalties for employers who, after having been repeatedly fined, continue to knowingly hire illegal immigrants.
• 79% agree and 67% strongly agree that the Federal government should strictly enforce present laws calling for heavy fines for employers who knowingly hire illegal immigrants.
• 79% agree and 58% strongly agree that the Federal government should require all employers to verify U.S. citizenship or lawful presence for each job applicant by a telephone or online check to a central data base maintained by the U.S. government.
  RoperASW Poll, March 2003

Role of State and Local Governments

Majority of Americans Agree Congress Should Require State/Local Government Agencies to Notify Both Immigration and Naturalization Service (INS) and Local Law-Enforcement Agencies When They Determine a Person is Here Illegally or Has Presented a False ID

• 88% agree and 68% strongly agree that Congress should pass a law requiring state and local government agencies to notify both the Immigration and Naturalization Service (INS) and their local law-enforcement agency when they determine that a person is here illegally, or has presented a false identification document.
• 85% agree and 62% strongly agree that Congress should pass a law requiring state and local governments, and law enforcement agencies, to apprehend and turn over to the INS illegal immigrants with whom they come in contact.
  RoperASW Poll, March 2003

Return to Public Opinion page

Poll categories

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Legal Immigration

-

Illegal Immigration

-

Methods to Deal with Illegal Immigration

-

Employers and Illegal Immigration

-

Role of State and Local Governments

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DENVER - Twenty-three congressmen warned President Bush in a letter yesterday that he risks an election-year backlash from Republican voters if he continues to press his guest-worker proposal.      

The Republican lawmakers said their congressional offices have received a flood of angry letters, e-mails and phone calls from Republican constituents vowing that they will refuse to vote for the president if his program is approved.      

"Since the President's speech, our offices have been inundated with calls from dismayed constituents expressing vehement opposition to the Administration's proposal," said the letter signed by several members of the House Immigration Reform Caucus.      

"It is a matter of great concern to us that these constituents politically active American citizens are so disillusioned by the proposal that many of them will become disenchanted with not only the Administration, but with Congress as well," said the letter, which also was sent to House Speaker J. Dennis Hastert, Illinois Republican. "If we do not listen to our constituents on this matter, our influence and effectiveness in Congress could be jeopardized."      

Most of the congressmen signing are conservatives who represent Western, Southern and Midwestern states, including California, Idaho, Texas, Tennessee and Kansas.      

The White House plan, released earlier this month, would give guest-worker status to undocumented aliens who have come to the United States to work. An estimated 8 million to 12 million immigrants live here illegally.      

But critics say the plan would give de facto amnesty to millions of illegal immigrants, exacerbating the social ills faced by many border states while reducing respect for immigration laws.     

 White House spokeswoman Claire Buchan said yesterday that she hadn't yet seen the letter, but stressed the importance of the president's proposal in controlling illegal immigration.     

"The president's temporary-worker program is a well thought-out aimed at improving border security, meeting our economic needs and being compassionate to those trying to improve their situation for themselves and their families," Miss Buchan said. "He looks forward to working with Congress to pass this legislation."
Republicans warn Bush on immigration policy
Washington Times - 1/28/04 - Valerie Richardson

[gubamyster]

ping

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FYI

[janetgreen]

Thanks for posting this. I hope President Bush is listening.

[skeeter]

Illegal Aliens will be a hot issue throughout the 2004 Election. Ballot Initiatives against Illegals are on their way to qualifying in the border states of California and Arizona, and will likely pass with the type of voter support seen in 1994 for Proposition #187, despite the opposition of many Republican and Democrat political leaders.

I guess we'llsoon find out how prescient Art 'last gasp' Torres really was.

[AmericanInTokyo]

Nice tiger. Thanks tiger.

[Standing Wolf]

Quote: Twenty-three congressmen warned President Bush in a letter yesterday that he risks an election-year backlash from Republican voters if he continues to press his guest-worker proposal. Me, for example.

[Pubbie]

"I guess we'llsoon find out how prescient Art 'last gasp' Torres really was."

He counted his Anchor Babies before they were hatched.

[Pubbie]

Do the organizers of the New Prop187 think they will get enough signatures for the April deadline?

Thanks,

Pubbie

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Do the organizers of the New Prop187 think they will get enough signatures for the April deadline?

They sound pretty confident. There's a good network of petition gatherers as a result of the Recall and the Save Our License initiatives.

[Pubbie]

That's Good news.

Do you know anything about the Arizona initiative's progress?

[moehoward]

bump

[heleny]

From that Washington Times article:

...
"Since the President's speech, our offices have been inundated with calls from dismayed constituents expressing vehement opposition to the Administration's proposal," said the letter
...

Besides Mr. Tancredo, the Republican congressmen who signed the letter are:

Reps. Todd Akin of Missouri,
Roscoe G. Bartlett of Maryland,
Ginny Brown-Waite, Jeff Miller and Cliff Stearns of Florida,
Philip M. Crane and Donald Manzullo of Illinois,
Nathan Deal of Georgia,
John J. "Jimmy" Duncan Jr. and Zach Wamp of Tennessee,
Elton Gallegly and Dana Rohrabacher of California,
Scott Garrett of New Jersey,
Virgil H. Goode Jr. of Virginia,
Ernest Istook of Oklahoma,
Walter B. Jones of North Carolina,
Steve King of Iowa,
Steven C. LaTourette of Ohio,
C.L. "Butch" Otter and Mike Simpson of Idaho,
Jim Ryun of Kansas,
and Lamar Smith of Texas.

I agree with them!

[skeeter]

That was good:)

[heleny]

California's new Save Our State constitutional initiative petitions and info are available online:

http://save187.com

We need about 600,000 valid signatures by this April

[Pubbie]

:)~

[Paulus Invictus]

What good do such propositions do if the RAT judges cancel what the voters want? The RAT judges that struck down Prop. 187 are still in office. How can these idiots be circumvented, or can they be?