Election becomes complicated for Lloyd Doggett(Texas CD-25)

Quorum Report/News 8/On the Agenda ^ | 1/19/2004 | Harvey Kronberg

[SwinneySwitch]

Majority Leader Tom DeLay's first goal in reviving Texas congressional redistricting was to simply increase GOP numbers in the delegation.

But while DeLay's first mission was numerical, there is little doubt that his second mission included ending Austin congressman Lloyd Doggett's career in Washington.

An unapologetic liberal, Doggett is every bit as partisan and hardball as DeLay.

Doggett's rhetorical ability to turn a phrase frequently captures print and television attention. Like DeLay, Doggett can simply drip acid about the other political party.

Doggett earned the ire of his Texas Democratic colleagues by ignoring the court battles over the redistricting map. He decided his best shot was the 25th District that reaches from South Austin to the Mexican border and began campaigning and lining up endorsements months ago.

Even though the south end of the district is more populous than the Austin portion, Doggett's reported $2 million campaign war chest made him the favorite to win the Democratic primary against McAllen judge Leticia Hinojosa.

While she hopes to raise somewhere around a $500,000 before the primary in six weeks, her supporters hope her last name and ability to speak Spanish will help her galvanize south Texas voters.

But cash on hand and the short time until the primary still work to Doggett's advantage thus possibly returning him to Congress and frustrating DeLay.

Undeterred, Republicans threw Doggett a curve ball 15 minutes before the filing deadline last Friday.

Public Utility Commission Chairman Rebecca Armendariz Klein entered the race. Within minutes, Gov. Rick Perry endorsed her.

Even though the district looks overwhelmingly Democratic, it is not unreasonable to think that DeLay will make sure Armendariz Klein has enough money to be competitive.

Doggett's financial advantage shrinks because he is now looking at two potentially expensive elections against Hispanic surnames -- the primary in six weeks and the general election in nine months.

Political commentator Harvey Kronberg shares his thoughts on politics in Texas each Monday during On the Agenda. Kronberg is the writer, editor, publisher of the Quorum Report, Texas' oldest political newsletter.

[SwinneySwitch]

Doggett's $2 million rats nest is shrinking!

[Pubbie]

[JohnnyZ]

Election becomes complicated for Lloyd Doggett

I just hate it when that happens.

[JohnnyZ]

AHR, I know you love giving redistricting numbers -- would we have a chance of beating Doggett with a strong Hispanic candidate like the one we've got? assuming he survives the primary?

[AuH2ORepublican]

Even if Doggett wins a close, controversial primary against Leticia Hinojosa (with accusations of Hispanic voters being unable to vote, etc.) and Klein drops her married name and uses her Spanish maiden name, it would still be nearly impossible for the GOP to win the House seat in such a heavily RAT district. If I were a Republican in the district, I would seriously consider voting in the RAT primary to help Hinojosa win. If Doggett gets reelected, not only will that insufferable liberal stay in Washington, but Democrats will say "I told you so" about the GOP redistricting plan not electing any additional Hispanics to Congress.

[JohnnyZ]

Nine seconds. That was pretty fast!

[AuH2ORepublican]

"Nine seconds. That was pretty fast!"

---

LOL.

To add some more "meat" to my conclusion that Doggett would almost certainly beat Klein, the 2002 GOP performance in the CD was only 30.2%, the lowest of any of the Hispanic-majority districts in the state. One of the reasons why it's so low is that the Austin portion had a 2002 GOP performance of 23.9% due to it being 17.5% black and only 49.5% Hispanic, with the 30.4% Anglo population being composed largely of urban liberals. I think a Hispanic Republican could win upset victories in the 15th, 27th and 28th CDs, and perhaps even in the 16th, 20th or 29th CDs, but the 25th CD is as heavily RAT as the black-plurality 9th CD (the 9th had an identical 30.2% GOP performance in 2002).

On second thought, if Klein can somehow motivate Hispanics to register and vote in greater numbers and can cut into Doggett's support among Austin Hispanics, it is not inconceivable for her to pull off the upset. But I wouldn't bet on it.

[Dog Gone]

Doggett is going to have a hard time winning the Rat primary. Even if it wasn't a hispanic thing, the folks in the Valley are going to vote for a local politician over some dweeb up in Austin.

[G L Tirebiter]

Schadenfreude time....Party!

[AuH2ORepublican]

"Doggett is going to have a hard time winning the Rat primary. Even if it wasn't a hispanic thing, the folks in the Valley are going to vote for a local politician over some dweeb up in Austin."

---

I hope you're right. But Doggett has gotten endorsements from a whole slew of Rio Grande Valley Hispanic politicians, including the mayor of McAllen. See http://www.doggettforcongress.com/valleywomenleaderendorse.htm. I hope Leticia Hinojosa strikes back hard, and that she can get Austin Hispanics to desert Doggett and vote for her.

[Dead Corpse]

Is there anything else I can do to make it IMPOSSIBLE for Lloyd to get elected?

[JohnnyZ]

This has gotta be our best chance at taking the seat, though. A white Austin liberal unknown in much of the district, George Bush on the ticket, a strong Hispanic Republican, a divisive Democrat primary, and perhaps some crossover endorsements of R.A.K. from prominent Hispanic Rats.

[Dog Gone]

It may come down to which side stuffs the ballot box more in Hidalgo County.

Or which side the ghost of the Duke of Duval is backing...

[AuH2ORepublican]

"This has gotta be our best chance at taking the seat, though. A white Austin liberal unknown in much of the district, George Bush on the ticket, a strong Hispanic Republican, a divisive Democrat primary, and perhaps some crossover endorsements of R.A.K. from prominent Hispanic Rats."

---

You're right, Doggett against Klein in 2004 may be our only chance at the district for the rest of the decade. If Doggett beats Hinojosa in a bloody primary, with Bush facing Dean or Kerry atop the ballot, and if Klein is actually a good candidate and is strongly supported by the state GOP, all the stars would have lined up for a GOP upset of Sears-vs.-Scott proportions. But it might still not be enough. Starr, Duval and Jim Hogg Counties have been just too darn Democrat for too darn long, and its part of Austin (38% of the CD's population and like 40% of the voters) is very liberal and has been voting for Doggett for years. And just like Fort Worth blacks saved Frost's hide in 1994 and Fort Bend County blacks allowed Mayor Brown to defeat Orlando Sanchez in the 2001 Houston mayoral election, Austin blacks may come to Doggett's rescue if Klein is able to get Hispanic Democrats to vote for her.

[SwinneySwitch]

"Is there anything else I can do to make it IMPOSSIBLE for Lloyd to get elected?"

Can't think of anything that's not ILLEGAL! Dag nabbit!

[WOSG]

"Is there anything else I can do to make it IMPOSSIBLE for Lloyd to get elected?"

uh... give a $1 million check to his hispanic Dem primary opponent???

As for "Klein", how is that a Hispanic Name? :-)

She'll need to run on her maiden name if she wants to make the most of it.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"She'll need to run on her maiden name if she wants to make the most of it."

---

Yeah, she needs to pull a Loretta Brixley (I mean, Sanchez).

[.cnI redruM]

It's not complicated, he's just a lot more likely to have his hat handed to him.

[Itzlzha]

To add some more "meat" to my conclusion that Doggett would almost certainly beat Klein, the 2002 GOP performance in the CD was only 30.2%, the lowest of any of the Hispanic-majority districts in the state.

Given the current public backlash against any "It's-Not-an-Amnesty" Amnesty plan, is it possible to challenge the votes in the district to maybe "Weed out" the massive Illegal voter pad the DemonRATs have?

Is it feasible to maybe cut some of that voter base for Representative Dog$#it?

[AuH2ORepublican]

"is it possible to challenge the votes in the district to maybe "Weed out" the massive Illegal voter pad the DemonRATs have?

Is it feasible to maybe cut some of that voter base for Representative Dog$#it?"

---

Doubtful. Voter turnout is very low in the heavily Hispanic parts of the district, so I don't think too many illegals are voting. And Hispanics in several of those counties probably vote Republican at higher percentages than Anglos in the part of Austin included in the district (and of course blacks in Austin are almost exclusively Democrat). The slight chance we have of beating Doggett is contingent upon us *increasing*, not decreasing, the Hispanic turnout, and a Hispanic Republican such as Rebecca Armendariz Klein can exploit Doggett's cultural liberalism and the fact that he's not Hispanic nor from the Rio Grande Valley.