Economists Say Recession Started in 2000

The Washington Post ^ | January 22, 2004 | Nell Henderson

[MikeA]

The last recession may have started in the last months of the Clinton administration rather than at the beginning of the Bush administration.

The panel of economists that serves as the official timekeeper for the nation's recessions is considering moving the starting date for the most recent economic decline back to November or December of 2000, a member of the group said today, confirming a report that appeared in The Wall Street Journal.

"We have discussed it already and there seems to be some inclination to move the date" to some time in the last three months of 2000, said Victor Zarnowitz. He is a member of the National Bureau of Economic Research's business cycle dating committee, which determines the widely accepted start and end dates to U.S. recessions.

[MikeA]

This is what you get when you have a president (Clinton) who only knew how to steal credit for the economy, rather than actually doing anything to sustain its growth.

But, Democrats will continue to lie and claim not only that it's "Bush's recession," but claim it's still occuring despite the record growth and solid economic numbers we're seeing. We REALLY need to be prepared to counter the tactic the Democrats will surely use right through election day to talk down the economy.

[sirshackleton]

The recession may have started in 2000, but the jury's still out about when HTML formatting will start to grip America. ;^)

[Ingtar]

The official start of a Recession requires 3 quarters of poor economic showing before it starts. This pushes it even further back into the prior administration.

[KarlInOhio]

I thought that it was only 2 quarters. Anyway, it is already backdated to the first quarter of the drop.

[afraidfortherepublic]

DUUUUUUUUUHHHHH! The WP is certainly a day late and a dollar short with this news. Every manufacturer in the country can give you the date and the hour that the recession started. And we've all known it all this time. This has been reported for years.

The recession started the day that Alan Greenspan started jacking up the interest rates because he was frightened of "Exhuberant growth". The minute the rates went up, customers started pushing out orders and stopped paying bills. They turned all of us sub-contractors into banks. It's been brutal, and I don't see the end of it yet.

[malia]

I say the end of 1998 and into 1999.

[C210N]

I note this coming from the left press...

this is already known, but by putting it out for discussion now (admitting Clinton's fault after the fact) sets up a scenario to blame Bush for a looming recession before any "evidence" appears. Thus, for the same economic happenings, it gets to skate when in power, but blame others when not.

[Spok]

The real news here is that this story ran in the Washington Post.

[steve8714]

The recession started the day Daimler bought Chrysler. This was financed on the backs of Chrysler suppliers. Many tier two and three suppliers could not afford the delay in payments and the demanded repricing. Tier two and three tend to be smaller regional and local suppliers whose entire business may be auto industry related.

[DeepDish]

Which makes the Post useless for timely economic information. They probably sill think that Enron is a good buy.

[colorado tanker]

Of course the recession started in the last quarter of 2000. That's what the data have always shown - negative GDP. The stock market, a leading indicator, started falling off in mid-2000. This committee has refused to acknowledge reality, I've always suspected, for political reasons.

[Tacis]

Nonsense! The Clinton Recession started in August, 1999. It was so obvious by the end of 1999, that even I was able to notice it and do something about it (my wife's comments about my investing skills echo in my mind)! Smartest thing I ever did was convert my 401(k) to cash on 12/31. I lost the August peak but maintained capital through 2000, 2001, 2002. Alas, I was much less alert about converting FROM cash when the Bush Boom began.

[woofer]

I say the end of 1998 and into 1999.

One year off, IMHO.
Stock market topped Q1 2000, By Q2 2000 it was a full blown recession.

You just didn't hear about it in the media because they were afraid that that kind of news would hurt AlGore's chances of being elected in 2000.

[lafroste]

That was my estimatation as well. 2nd qtr 2000 is when it "started", but one can debate on whether the positioning to allow it to start also counts as "started". After all, you win or lose a chess game with a single move - checkmate, but that is hardly an isolated event from the rest of the game.

[TheBattman]

Faulty research in this story. The economy began to faulter far earlier - as the slowing economy was a campaign issue. Remember how the LIberals were accusing GW of "talking down the economy"? This started well before November of that year.

You see, by placing the date on the Months of November and December, the liberals will use that as proof that the election of GW started the downhill slide.

[ffusco]

The economy tanked the moment the Fed went after Microsoft. To paraphrase Soros, The divergence between the smoke and mirrors and the fundamentals were to wide.

[sirshackleton]

But if you go back into stocks now, you're buying in at higher prices.

[Dog Anchor]

It doesn't matter when the recession started...It is Bush's recession...It was Bush's recession in '91...crash in '87...depression in the '30s...panic of '07...

[CMAC51]

The recession started the day that Alan Greenspan started jacking up the interest rates because he was frightened of "Exhuberant growth".

There were a lot of factors that set us up for recession, Greenspan's rate increases being one of them, but when I look back on the markets, behavior in the company I work for, my contacts in shipping, mfg and other places, the event that appears to be the trigger for the recession was when the Clinton administration forced Microsoft to trial. The market turned for the worse and the dominos started falling.

[BushisTheMan]

Duh, Vice President Cheney has said this from the beginning.