SurveyUSA poll shows four-way tie for Dems (Primary), Ryan in lead for GOP (Illinois Senate Race)

Illinois Leader ^ | 01/18/03 | SurveyUSA

[Pubbie]

CHICAGO -- In striking contrast to a poll released yesterday by WGN/Chicago Tribune, an exclusive poll was released today by Survey USA/WBBM-TV in Chicago that says the Democratic primary is a four-way tie and the Republican primary has a leader, Jack Ryan, who is twelve points ahead of the second place candidate, Jim Oberweis.

On the Democrat side, State Comptroller Dan Hynes (at 20%) is neck-in-neck with State Senator Barak Obama (at 19%) , businessman Blair Hull (at 19%) and Cook County Treasurer Maria Pappas (at 18%). Gery Chico came in fifth at 9% and the undecided voters were at 7%. The margin of error was 3.8% and 702 certain Democratic voters were polled.

On the Republican side, the Survey USA/WBBM-TV poll showed investor turned teacher Jack Ryan leading the race for U.S. Senate with 29%, investor and dairyman Jim Oberweis second at 17% and businessman Andy McKenna at 14%. General John Borling was fourth (at 10%) and State Senator Steve Rauschenberger was fifth (at 7%). 422 certain GOP voters were polled with a margin of error of 4.9% during the week of January 12-14, 2004.

Joseph Shipman, Ph.D., Director of Election Polling for USA Survey in New Jersey said that the number of undecideds in the Illinois GOP poll is high for their polling at 19%. The WGN poll said that the number of undecided GOP voters was at 57% in Thursday's results.

"It's fairly easy to explain why the two different polls have such a difference in the number of undecideds," Shipman said. "The percent really depends on the polling methodology. We are a little more forceful than other pollsters in encouraging a decision when the polled are answering our survey."

Shipman said that those who are doing the survey are asked to respond by pressing numbers on their phone receivers.

"For instance," he said, "we will ask them how they would vote if the election were today, and if they were standing in the voting booth. We will list the candidates one by one and then pause and offer the undecided option." The callers most often make their decision during that pause.

Even though SurveyUSA's 19% undecided is substantially lower than the 57% listed in the WGN poll, it is still indicates a larger number of voters who are undecided at this stage of the election, Shipman said.

Today's survey listing of candidates was taken on the advice of WBBM-TV, who chose to list Ryan, Oberweis, McKenna, Borling, Rauschenberger and Kathuria in the GOP poll. Jonathan Wright, Norm Hill and Andy Martin were not included.

The Democratic candidate names of Hynes, Obama, Hull, Pappas, Chico, Washington and Skinner were included in the survey for the Democratic voters.

On Thursday, U.S. Senate candidate Andy Martin, whose name is currently listed as the very last name on the GOP ballot in the March 2004 primary, filed a complaint against the Chicago Tribune for not including his name in the poll released yesterday.

Complete polling results on this survey are available at www.surveyusa.com and on WBBM-TV's news site.

[Pubbie]

Illinois Senate Primary *Ping*!

[Chi-townChief]

Looks like we have a big decision coming up : to vote in the Republican primary for senator or cross over and help out the rats with their presidential candidate choice.

[Pubbie]

Vote in the Senate Primary - The Presidential Primary will be over after Iowa, SC, and New Hampshire.

[supercat]

Don't the Illinois Republicans realize the name "Ryan" is poison? They may as well nominate Fredrick Stalin or Robert Hitler.

[supercat]

He's good looking, charitable person, with loads of money, and he's conservative.

I appreciate all that. But I still think the name "Ryan" is apt to put him at an undue disadvantage. Perhaps the intervening years have dampened voter's hatred for the name "Ryan", but I suspect strongly Jim Ryan's name cost him at least 5 percentage points and am afraid Jack's name might still cost him a couple.

[Pubbie]

Don't be silly, Jack Ryan looks nothing like George Ryan - and Jack has more than enough money to make sure people don't confuse the two.

[JohnnyZ]

In 2002, voters were mad at Governor Ryan and his corrupt administration. Republicans had had a lock on the governor's seat for a long time and it was time to throw the bums out. When the GOP nominated Jim Ryan, he was up against it because he was "part of the mess in Springfield", part of the GOP establishment. Kinda like Chandler in Kentucky. I'm sure a few people were confused, since it was the same name and the same office, but they were probably gonna vote against the Republican anyway.

2004 brings a different office, no incumbent 'Ryan', and a very non-establishment Jack Ryan who is radically different from the others. I don't think it'll be an issue for the voting public.

[wylenetheconservative]

Cross over and vote in the RAT primary for Obama. GO OBAMA GO! He may be the only one we can beat in a RAT state.

[Clintonfatigued]

As a statewide officeholder, Dan Hynes should be a shoo-in on the 'Rat side. The fact he's struggling indicates he might not be as strong in the general election as everyone thought. Perhaps Jack Ryan can even beat him.

[Pubbie]

I'm surprised about how well Blair Hull is doing.

He could very well be in the lead in 2 weeks.

[supercat]

2004 brings a different office, no incumbent 'Ryan', and a very non-establishment Jack Ryan who is radically different from the others. I don't think it'll be an issue for the voting public.

You may be right. The fact that it's a different office may help things. I just know that for me the name 'Ryan' stirs up a certain visceral reaction and would suspect I'm not alone in that.

[Kuksool]

In March, I will be voting in the RAT primary for Obama. I seriously doubt the blue collar people of Downstate will vote for an ally of Jesse Jackson.

[Clintonfatigued]

Good for you!

[JohnnyZ]

The fact he's struggling indicates he might not be as strong in the general election as everyone thought.

AHEM! Please leave me out of this "everyone"!

Some pitiful daddy's boy, give me a break!

[wylenetheconservative]

Good luck. I hope Obama can get the nomination. The GOP may not be able to beat even him, but he gives us the best chance. I don't think we can beat a white Democrat in IL anymore if he/she is well funded. Remember, Fitzgeral barely beat Carol Mostly-Fraud. Chicago and its suburbs are so liberal now that the GOP has to run the table outside of Metro Chicago in order to win. All hard core Republicans should be out voting for Obama. He is our only chance at holding this seat.

[Impy]

I don't think I could bring myself to vote in the rat primary.

Great news if Obama or Hull beat Hynes though.

[AuH2ORepublican]

If Hull is tied for the lead this early in the game, I think he's going to buy himself the RAT nomination, which would set up a Jack Ryan victory in November. I'd rather have Hull be the nominee than Obama, since Obama (i) has a résumé that could fool suburban voters, (ii) could mobilize the black vote and (iii) is a good-looking guy, unlike the chipmunk-looking Hull. Johnny, please put up side-by-side pictures of Hull and Jack Ryan so that everyone can see the choice suburban women would be facing.

Illinois Republicans should forget about the RAT primaries and make sure that Jack Ryan is the GOP nominee. None of the other guys would stand a chance in November.