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Posted on 01/09/2004 7:23:50 AM PST by Clive
South Africa's President Thabo Mbeki begins his political year alienated from his most powerful ally in Africa, Nigeria's President Olusegun Obasanjo, because of South Africa's obstinate support for Zimbabwe at the Commonwealth Heads of Government (Chogm) meeting last month.
The rift has large implications for African unity. It may hamper coordinated peace-keeping efforts on the continent and the implementation of Africa's economic recovery plan, the New Partnership for Africa's Development (Nepad), suggest analysts.
Details have emerged of how Mbeki's divisive posturing embarrassed Obasanjo, for whom Chogm was the most important political function on home soil during his term in office. There was "anger and disquiet" at Mbeki's stance, say highly placed Commonwealth insiders.
But Mbeki's spokesperson, Bheki Khumalo, denied a rift, saying Obasanjo was the last person the president saw in Abuja before flying home. "They parted laughing and on a warm note. Zimbabwe will not damage the relationship."
The two men's positions on Zimbabwe have now diverged from the joint approach still evident at the beginning of last year. At the Abuja summit, Obasanjo supported a continued suspension from the Commonwealth, while Mbeki is widely believed to have fronted a Southern African Development Community (SADC) statement that "strongly disagreed" with the decision.
Obasanjo is said to have requested Southern African leaders not to make their statement on Nigerian soil, though Khumalo says the SADC statement was released in Lesotho and South Africa so that it would not be read as a snub to the Nigerians.
Mbeki has been weakened globally by hinting, at CHOGM, that the entire SADC bloc would pull out of the Commonwealth if Zimbabwe's suspension was not lifted. South Africa denies making the threat. African members make up the largest bloc of Commonwealth members and as a sub-group of 12, Southern Africa is the largest.
Mbeki's attempt to oust incumbent Secretary General Don McKinnon by lobbying for the Sri Lankan candidate, Lakshman Kadirgaman, also failed. The entire SADC bloc did not vote for the Sri Lankan, again suggesting the president has an overblown understanding of his sway and support in the region.
Kadirgaman, who announced his candidature two weeks ahead of the CHOGM, was beaten by 11 votes to McKinnon's 40. An analysis of the voting pattern suggests four Asian countries (Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, India and the Maldives) and seven African states voted for him.
Initially pressed to run by, among others, the former Organisation of African Unity leader Salim Ahmed Salim and the African Union commission chair Alpha Oumar Konare, Kadirgamar said that he had been "let down" by African states.
South Africa is angered by the publication of the vote; Khumalo called it "un-Commonwealth" and said it flew in the face of convention in which voting was always confidential. He would not comment on disunity in the SADC.
Mbeki may have thought the gamble would succeed if the African members voted as an African Union bloc, but he again misjudged both his own influence and African unity.
Mbeki's tactics displayed naivety, say analysts, because the Commonwealth is more of a club of individual nations, without the tradition of bloc voting and caucusing of other multilateral institutions.
For his part, Mbeki is said to have been angered because he felt the meeting had not gone far enough in securing consensus on Zimbabwe and that Obasanjo had not allowed sufficient debate.
The Chogm left Africa more divided than ever on Zimbabwe.
Obasanjo, who still favours rapprochement with Zimbabwe, is now likely to work with Kenya, Botswana, Ghana, Mauritius and Tanzania.
Each country supports the reintegration of Zimbabwe into the fold of nations, but they have consistently maintained a stronger position on the rights abuses by President Robert Mugabe's government than countries like South Africa, Zambia, Lesotho and Namibia.
South Africa's position both as a global moral beacon and an African leader were weakened at the Chogm. Analysts say it will take nimble political footwork to repair the relationship with Obasanjo, a partnership that is a key to advancing Nepad. And if political negotiations in Zimbabwe do not quickly move from talks about talks to substantive engagement, South Africa is likely to be further weakened.
While Mbeki's reassurances about efforts to break the logjam in Zimbabwe placated United States President George Bush in June, a similar effort failed at the Chogm. Mbeki reportedly told the Commonwealth heads of government that a settlement in Zimbabwe was imminent, a position that was read as over-optimistic.
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This is good news as it indicates a reversion from the lock-step thinking of the past when the African states voted as a bloc.
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