Posted on 01/08/2004 11:05:26 AM PST by Theodore R.
How Bush can lose
Posted: January 8, 2004 1:00 a.m. Eastern
© 2004 WorldNetDaily.com
There's a kind of smug self-confidence emerging in the Bush White House based largely on incompetence in the Democratic Party, an improving economy and better news on the Iraqi war front.
Polls are showing President Bush handily beating Howard Dean or any other potential Democratic nominee in the November election.
That may happen.
But let me offer another scenario.
Whether it's Howard Dean or Daffy Duck who is nominated by the Democrats this summer, Bush's major opponent is going to have a lock on anywhere from 37 percent to 46 percent of the vote, according to recent polls. That's the hard-core Democratic vote that would go to anyone who gets the nomination of the party – even Al Sharpton or Dennis Kucinich.
Right now, in the best of times, Bush's re-election is attractive to a high of only 55 percent of voters.
So, in a head-to-head race, with no major third-party candidates to draw votes away from either of the major-party candidates, Bush indeed looks to win going away.
But situations do change in politics. Another major terrorist attack could change the political dynamic. A major setback in Iraq or Afghanistan could change the equation. A major stumble in the economic recovery could shift some votes from Bush to the Democrats. And, least likely perhaps, Howard Dean could actually start making sense rather than shooting himself in the foot every other day.
Any or all of these possibilities could change a 55-45 race to a much closer vote.
But there's one more factor not being considered by the Republicans and their overconfident cheerleaders: The possibility of a major third-party candidate who could draw more votes away from Bush than from the Democratic nominee.
As I predicted long ago, Ralph Nader, whose candidacy played a decisive role in 2000, is not going to run in 2004. Officially, he has rejected running on the Green Party ticket, but unofficially, I'm telling you, he will not run at all. No other significant left-wing candidate will run in 2004 either, because the hard left has decided to form a "united front" to beat Bush at all costs.
But there's nothing preventing the candidacy of someone who might take away a significant percentage of votes from Bush.
Like who?
Jesse Ventura.
Why would he run? Because he loves the spotlight and he no longer has it.
His TV show at MSNBC, "Jesse Ventura's America," is floundering as badly as the rest of the cable network's programming.
The former governor of Minnesota has openly discussed the possibility of a run for the presidency. He has never ruled it out.
What would a Ventura candidacy mean?
I don't think he would get much more than 5 percent of the vote. But that is a critical 5 percent because almost all of it would come from Bush's base.
Factor a Ventura candidacy into a race and just one or two other Bush policy setbacks and you have a horserace equivalent to 2000, when Bush lost the popular vote and the official results of the election were not determined for months.
Ventura may not even be the only candidate in the race taking away votes primarily from Bush. There will certainly be a Libertarian Party candidate. There will be one from the Constitution Party. While Bush squeaked out an electoral college victory in 2000 because of a third-party candidate, he could easily lose the race in 2004 because of one or more minor party candidacies drawing small but significant numbers of voters away from the Republican.
Bush has left himself wide open to such a strategy by governing like a Democrat in every way except three – his tax cut, his support of a partial-birth abortion ban and his execution of the terror war.
We'll see if that's enough for him to squeak by with another election victory next November.
LOL! Ventura might get a chunk of the biker vote and the undereducated youth vote, like he got in Minnesota. They dont make up Bush's base, by any means. This author is dreaming.
Well I am not holding my breath for some billionare anti-immigration candidate to enter the race at this point.
Bwahahahahahahahaha!!!!!!!
Joseph, you lost ALL credibility with THAT one!
Is this guy nuts? What is he going to do? Hit somebody over the head with a metal folding chair?
I'd be more concerned if Pat Buchanan stupidly tried to run again.
Screw him. "Libertarian" my reddened arse. He would know a "libertarian" principle if he was getting clothes-lined by one...
Then you have to figure states like Connecticutt, Delaware, and West Virginia, as well as Ohio, Missouri, Wisconsin, and Michegan are at least in play.
No, Bush will not get 48 states. Probably won't get 40, the more I think about it, regardless of who the candidate is he faces.
Another major terrorist attack could change the political dynamic.
That would rally the country around Bush. Last time his numbers approoached 90%!
A major setback in Iraq or Afghanistan could change the equation.
Capture of Osama and a peaceful Iraq would bolster Bush.
A major stumble in the economic recovery could shift some votes from Bush to the Democrats.
I smell a surprise in the upside in the economy with unemplyment decreasing sharply and the deficit dropping by 30%+
And, least likely perhaps, Howard Dean could actually start making sense rather than shooting himself in the foot every other day.
Highly unlikely.
After I saw the Clinton's on 60 Minutes the night of the 1992 Super Bowl, I told my wife that Clinton was a lying bum and would disgrace the country.
Similarly, she now has the same feeling about Dr. Dean.
It's all about CHARACTER!!
And unlike her opinion of Clinton, she says Dean scares her!
If Dean is the Democrat candidate for President, he gets no more than 40% of the vote......and that's being generous.
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