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The Rising Sea Dragon in Asia
JEFFHEAD.COM ^ | January 6, 2004 | Jeff Head

Posted on 01/06/2004 9:05:14 AM PST by Jeff Head

THE RISING SEA DRAGON IN ASIA
By Jeff Head, January 2004

In the 1990's the Poeple's Republic of China embarked on an unprecedented military buildup to modernize their aremd forces, increase their qualitative functioning and put them in a position to be able to better carry out the geo-olitical dictates of the Red Chinese government. This necessarily includes being able to develop themselves to a point that they could credibly confront the other armed forces in the region who may stand in the way of those geo-political directives, in particularly the United States.

The buildup has covered the spectrum of military forces, from strategic rocket forces (ICBM's), tactical rocket forces (SRBM's), ground forces, air forces and naval forces. It is being accomplished with monies that would otherwise have bankrupted the earlier marxist and maoist market economies, and while maintianing their communistic/marxistis political heiarchy. Capitalizing on the low cost labor force that they have opened up to the western world, the Red Chinese are obtaining the influx of capital necessary to maintian their military buildup. Thye are also making adept application of Sun Tsu philosophy (where makes clear that all warfare is deception) to amass staggering western trade defficits (meaning the west is on the deficit end) which are reaping them the tremendous capital and technological capabilities to continue and to achieve their military goals.

In conjucntion with the capital gains, through research and development, blackmail, importation of dual use technologies, bribery and out and out espionage, the Red Chinese have also markedly increased their technological and qualitative capabilities many fold over the last several years. This has allowed them to rise from a point in the early to mid 1990's where they were 25-30 years behind US technology, to a point today (less than fifteen years later) where their newer systems are challenging American capabilities in some areas, and posing a credible threat in others.

While not an exhaustive study, the focus of this article is to examine and present the recent developments in the Chinese Navy (PLAN) which are putting them into a position to credibly challenge the United States Navy in the region.

The Chinese Navy has historically been without any sea-based naval air component. Like the Soviets before them, they have historically relied heavily on land based naval strike aircraft to attack and defeat opposing at-sea naval forces in the region. They have had no aircraft carriers. However, like the Soviets before them, the Chinese have come to see the desirability and necessity of developing sea-based naval air forces if they plan to project power very far from their own shores. In recognition of this, over the last ten years, they have purchased and studied at least three different carrier designs. These ships have been acquired through various strategmns including purchasing them for scrap and then bringing them to Chinese naval yards for study and purchasing them for supposed economic reasons, like making a floating casino out of a former Russian carrier, and then again bringing them to China for study. The two carriers bought for scrap are not suitable for refitting and making operational, but they would have provided Chinese shipbuilders and designers with invaluable knowledge so they can augment their own future naval plans.

The latest carrier obtained in this fashiopn is the most troubling. It is the Russian carrier, the Varyag. The Varyag is.a relatively modern design and could be made into something that is very capable. It was towed to the Dalian Chinese naval yards where it is currently being studied for anything but a floating Casino. Given the Chinese capital capabilities, it could easily be refitted and made sea worthy (it was towed at sea from the Black Sea to China) or it could provide the technical basis for a wholly indigenous Chinese carrier.


The Vayrag Entering Chinese waters


The Vayrag birtrhed at Chinese naval shipyards

The Vayrag is not something to be taken lightly. Fully equiped it would approach a 65,000 ton displacement and embark 40-50 modern jet fighter and attack aircraft. As such, it would be the equal (it is in fact a newer design) to the Russian Kuznetzov and would be the largest carrier in the world outside of America's super-carriers. Operating within range of ground air support and with the appropriate escort vessels, it would pose a credable threat in the China Sea and particularly in the Formosa Straits. The Chinese have been purchasing, and are now license building, SU-27 fighter bombers in China which could be used on the Vayrag and their new J-10 aircraft might also be suitably modified for carrier operations. If the Chinese were to complete this carrier and then augment it with designs of their own to the point where they were producing several of them, the balance of power in the region would shift dramitically.


Red Chinese produced SU-27 Aircraft (J11)


The Red Chinese J-10

But do the Chinese intend to do this?

That question can be answered by determining if the Chinese are developing and fielding the necessary escort and support vessels and infrastructure to protect and augment any carrier they develop.

The answer to that questions is an umittigated, yes!

The Chinese have embarked on an ambitious and unprecedented development and ship building program of modern destroyers and frigates that would allow for the creation of powerful carrier battle groups similar to those fielded by the U.S. Navy once they produce a carrier. These include multi-role combat vessels, area air-defense vessels (similar to American Aegis vessels) and support vessels. They have also purchased very capable, modern large surface combatants from the Russians.

The Sovermenny class destroyers were produced by the Soviets in the late 1980's to specifcally threaten U.S. carriers. The Chinese have purchased four of these vessels and refitted and renamed them the Hangzhou class. The Russians modernized the design throughout the 1990's before their sale to the Chinese and they are an example of the type of equipment the Chinese are purchasing with their new found wealth and technology (mostly ammassed from trade with the United States and other western countries). These ships are very capable, mulit-purpose guided missile destroyer and carry the Sunburn and Yahkont surface to surface missiles which were specifically designed by the Russians to attack U.S. super-carriers and defeat the Aegis air defense system. These vessels aslo have a credible medium-ranged anti-air defense system suitable for their own protection, or close in protection of other vessels.


A former Sovremmenny class now saling as the PLAN Hangzhou

To augment the multi-role capabilities of the Hangzhou class, the Chinese have done a very thorough job of development themselves, producing their own modern designs. This started in the 1990's with modernization of the numerous, but older, Luda class of destroyers. It then proceeded to the development of the newer Luhu class desroyers in the mid-1990's and the evolution of that class into the newer and more capable Luhai class by the late 1990's. It is now finally producing their new Typer 52B, Guangzhou class of vessels. With a displacemnt approaching 7,000+ tons and modern anti-surface, anti-air and anti-submarine weapons systems and using proven Russian Top Dome and other acquisition and targeting sensors, this design represents a modern Chinese version of the Russian Svremmenny and indicates the Chinese commitment to being self-sufficient in their naval development and power projection capabilities. This design is a very capable design and cannot be taken lightly by U.S. war planners. Currently the Chinese have launched two of these newer vessels and are projected to build up to eight of them.


The new PLAN 168 Guanghou destroyer


The second Guanghou destroyer being built

In addition, the Chinese are developing a new, stealthy Type 054 class frigate that will be capable in the anti-air, anti-surface and anti-submarine roles. Similar to the role of the earlier U.S. Perry class frigates, but much newer, more stealthy and an apparent attempt to beat the Americans to the Litoral Combat Ship role, these new frigates are already being built and launched in Chinese shipyards.


The new Type 54 PLAN Frigate

In order to provide the area air coverage necessary to protect a carrier in the modern war-at-sea environment, the Chinese have also embarked on the very ambitious task of developing, building, and launching modern area air-defense destroyers. These ships are similar in design and function to the American AEGIS Burke destroyers and are used to protect large task forces, particularly carrier battle groups from mass air assault by aircraft or missiles.

Captializing on joint exercises and partnership programs with the United States Navy in the 1990's. where Red Chinese officers were actually allowed onboard American Aegis ships to observe their operations, and relying on technology that has been pilfered through dual technology methods, espionage and the rising capabilities of Chinese researchers themselves (who are now very well funded), the Chinese are now building a new class of destroyers, the Type 52C, Lanzhou guided missile destroyers. These vessels will employ Phased Array radar acquisition and targeting systems similar to Aegis and their own long-range, vertical launch missiles. These vessels are meant to be the equivalent of the U.S. Navy's Arleigh Burk class destroyers. Two are currently being built simultaneously and it is expected that the Chinese will build at least two more, while developing an even larger and more capable class of vessels which may be intended to rival the vaunted American Ticonderoga class Aegis cruisers.


Two new Type 52C, Lanzhou AEGIS like destroyers under construction

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TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Culture/Society; Editorial; Foreign Affairs; Free Republic; Government; News/Current Events; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: armsbuildup; asia; authorjeffhead; china; chinesemilitary; jeffhead; miltech; plan; powerprojection; redchinathreat; usnavy; westernpacific
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To: Pahuanui
Read Michael Pillsbury, China Debates the Future Security Environment, published 3 or 4 years ago. China does indeed regard us ("us" excluding a ChiCom apologist like you) as its principal enemy, or if you like, "principal rival for world domination."

With vigilant Americans like Jeff Head, we'll get the drop on the ChiComs though. Including the agents they've planted here.

61 posted on 01/06/2004 6:46:42 PM PST by Map Kernow ("I hold that a little rebellion now and then is a good thing" ---Thomas Jefferson)
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To: cyn
Eye doctor. Getting ready to get some new glasses and a new prescription. Still trying to fight to avoid bifocals...but I am afraid it is inevitable,
62 posted on 01/06/2004 8:40:10 PM PST by Jeff Head
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To: Map Kernow
A couple of other good reads are:

The Year of the Rat

Unrestricted Warfare

That last is their own words.

Here's a link to one of their own internal memos regarding the future of relations with the US HERE.

63 posted on 01/06/2004 8:47:13 PM PST by Jeff Head
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To: Jeff Head
Fascist Chinese Empire bump.

64 posted on 01/06/2004 9:20:56 PM PST by SevenDaysInMay (Federal judges and justices serve for periods of good behavior, not life. Article III sec. 1)
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To: Jeff Head
I think the near-term utility of the growing PLAN is in two areas:

/1/ Regional intimidation. In this era of unilateral action by superpowers (as the Chinese see it) they want to be able to bully and intimidate smaller regional nations. They can use it as a potential "stick" behind their diplomacy, especially when the USA is seen as over extended and unable and unwilling to come to anyone's rescue. The PLAN is therefore worthwhile even without firing a single shell at bending other nations to the Chinese will.

/2/ The potential to mount a short sharp regional operation, if the USA is otherwise too busy to react with its main force. The PLAN would have to wait for the USN to be busy elsewhere, before, say, supporting an invasion of Taiwan.

65 posted on 01/06/2004 10:04:39 PM PST by Travis McGee (----- www.EnemiesForeignAndDomestic.com -----)
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To: Jeff Head
Jeff: How would the chinese deal with a high altitude stealth bomber? Carriers only work if the airspace above and around them are completely clear of hostile bombers.

If they actually start building carriers, wouldn't this suggest that they believe they can neutralize our stealth technology?

66 posted on 01/06/2004 10:49:23 PM PST by ModelBreaker
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To: Travis McGee
Agreed to both points. And to your number two, it would not be beyond them to arrange for us to be busy elsewhere.
67 posted on 01/07/2004 5:22:20 AM PST by Jeff Head
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To: ModelBreaker
They would target the regional bases where those aircraft were based.

I think the much more likely implication is that they believe in a sharp conflict that they could negate our satellites.

? If the aircraft were forced to take-off from a much more distant location, and if the satellite imagery was not available, it would be very tough to locate a carrier battle group.

In my series I do, however, address the stealth issue. Using the downing of the F-117 over BOsnia as a base line, I weave a fictional tale of the Chinese developing anti-stealth technology which they employ in the conflict.

68 posted on 01/07/2004 5:26:53 AM PST by Jeff Head
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To: SevenDaysInMay
IMHO, their government represents an evil empire not unlike the Soviets, and they should be treated the same way that Reagan treated the Soviets.
69 posted on 01/07/2004 5:28:05 AM PST by Jeff Head
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To: DakotaGator
Continue the push for expansion of the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force plus South Korea's and the Republic of Philipine's navies. Make overatures to India. And start holding massive integrated naval exercises with these and ANZAC navies.

Yes, scrap NATO and upgrade SEATO to be made up of Japan, S. Korea, the Phillipines, Australia, New Zealand, India, Afghanistan and other Central Asian/South East Asian states that wish to contain China.
70 posted on 01/07/2004 5:31:19 AM PST by Cronos (W2004!)
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To: spetznaz
Very well put, the Chinese have been dominant in East Asia for millenia, but all the rest is overhyped. We should instead of confronting the chinese directly, support their neighbours who have more to fear, neighbours like Russia, Japan, India, Australia, the Phillipines and yes even Vietnam
71 posted on 01/07/2004 5:40:40 AM PST by Cronos (W2004!)
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To: Pahuanui
The Communist Chinese consider the U.S their primary enemy.

That's what they keep saying. They constantly dismiss their two giant neighbours -- Russia and India and they don't consider the Japanese except to berate them for their actions in WWII.
72 posted on 01/07/2004 5:42:28 AM PST by Cronos (W2004!)
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To: Melinator
Yes, I do. They've already stated that they reserve the right to act pre-emptively in their self-defense. The problem they have is rooted in the out-dated WWII restrictions we placed on their military options, which we wrote into their Constitution. Japan should be allowed to take their rightful place as a fully-developed and modern member of the community of nations. If Japan, which has the second-largest GDP of any nation on earth, began asserting itself in the manner that they should, I believe that many of our current political problems with other second-rate, penny-ante countries like France, Germany, Russsia, and particularly China, would become less compelling. Japan is fully ensconced in the US defense umbrella and has proven itself to be a reliable and trustworthy American ally, unlike the other countries mentioned.
73 posted on 01/07/2004 6:23:43 AM PST by vanmorrison
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To: Cronos
Yes, scrap NATO and upgrade SEATO...that wish to contain China.

Exactly!

74 posted on 01/07/2004 9:19:56 AM PST by DakotaGator
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To: vanmorrison
Japan, which has the second-largest GDP of any nation on earth

That's not correct. As of 2003, the top 10 countries ranked by GDP are:
Nation per capita
  1. United States $10 trillion
  2. China $6t
  3. Japan $3.65t
  4. India $2.664t
  5. Germany $2.16t
  6. France $1.588
  7. United Kingdom $1.528
  8. Italy $1.455
  9. Russia $1.409
  10. Brazil $1.3765


As per cia.gov.
75 posted on 01/07/2004 10:00:04 AM PST by Cronos (W2004!)
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To: Cronos
Thanks for that info...I thought China was at least on the verge of becoming number two...now it looks like they are far and away and solidly in the number two position based on those numbers.
76 posted on 01/07/2004 10:02:42 AM PST by Jeff Head
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To: DakotaGator; Cronos
Couple that with instituting an economic policy that does not continue to fund the Chinese expansion and growth, unless and until there is absolute meaningful reform in terms of their government, civil liberties, banking, etc..

Otherwise, treat them economically the way Reagan treated the Soviets. It would be painful at this point...but not as painful as a war with them will be.

77 posted on 01/07/2004 10:09:51 AM PST by Jeff Head
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To: Jeff Head
Modern ships with dazzle paint schemes? Or are those cables or lnes criss crossing on the hull?


78 posted on 01/07/2004 10:22:45 AM PST by finnman69 (cum puella incedit minore medio corpore sub quo manifestus globus, inflammare animos)
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To: finnman69
In the initial pic, if you look closely you will see that the lines appear to stand out from the ship when they cross over towards midships approaching the water. That makes them appear to be lines or cables of some type.

But, they are evident in this other pic of the ship as well:


79 posted on 01/07/2004 10:34:30 AM PST by Jeff Head
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To: Jeff Head
cool looking ship actually
80 posted on 01/07/2004 10:46:30 AM PST by finnman69 (cum puella incedit minore medio corpore sub quo manifestus globus, inflammare animos)
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