Purported Bin Laden Tape Likely Authentic

WINS NEWS ^ | 1/5/03

[areafiftyone]

CAIRO, Egypt (AP) -- A speaker who was purportedly Osama bin Laden said on an audiotape that the U.S.-led war in Iraq was the beginning of the "occupation" of Gulf states for their oil and called on Muslims to keep fighting a holy war in the Middle East. The tape is likely authentic, U.S. officials said Monday.

The voice on the audiotape, which was broadcast Sunday on the Al-Jazeera satellite channel, referred to recent events - including the Dec. 13 capture of former Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein and peace initiatives between Israel and the Palestinians.

The speaker urged Muslims to "continue the jihad to check the conspiracies that are hatched against the Islamic nation."

A CIA official speaking on condition of anonymity said that a technical analysis determined that the tape was likely an authentic audio message from bin Laden, the leader of the al-Qaida terror network.

On CBS's "The Early Show," Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge also said that "preliminary assessments says this is the voice of Osama bin Laden."

Al-Jazeera played the audiotape while showing a still photo of bin Laden against a dark blue background.

"My message is to incite you against the conspiracies, especially those uncovered by the occupation of the crusaders in Baghdad under the pretext of weapons of mass destruction, and also the situation in (Jerusalem) under the deceptions of the road map and the Geneva initiative," the speaker said.

A Mideast peace plan dubbed the Geneva Accord was launched Dec. 1 by Israeli and Palestinian negotiators. The phrase "road map" refers to a U.S.-backed plan for a Palestinian state by 2005.

Ibrahim Hilal, Al-Jazeera's editor-in-chief, told The Associated Press the network received the message Sunday. However, he declined to reveal how it was delivered.

Hilal said he was certain the voice on the tape was bin Laden's.

"It is bin Laden's superb and special Arabic language that is very hard to emulate," Hilal said. "It is undoubtedly his voice, his style, and the typical examples from history he uses."

The original message was 47 minutes long but the network aired only 14 minutes, Hilal said.

In those excerpts, the speaker urged Muslims to "liberate the Islamic world from the military occupation of the Crusaders."

He said Gulf countries have given in to U.S. pressures "thinking that would not open the door for toppling of the dictatorial regimes by military force from outside, especially after they saw the capture of their previous comrade in treachery, a hireling of America," referring to Saddam.

The speaker criticized leaders of Muslim nations for refusing to pressure the United States on the Palestinian issue and for not supporting the Palestinian resistance.

He also criticized Gulf countries for receiving members of the U.S.-appointed interim Iraqi Governing Council.

He said the "big powers" were trying to control the region for its oil.

"The occupation of Iraq is the beginning of the full occupation of the other Gulf states. ... The Gulf is the key for control of the world in the point of view of the big powers because of the presence of the biggest deposits of oil."

British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw said Monday in London that he had no confirmation that the voice on the tape was bin Laden's but that it was a safe assumption.

"There is no question that the al-Qaida organization and its networks are still around. And so far as we know, Osama bin Laden is still alive," Straw told British Broadcasting Corp. radio.

Al-Jazeera last broadcast an audiotape purportedly from bin Laden in October. CIA analysts examining that tape concluded it probably was authentic.

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[eseales]

Smogger, I'm not buying the whole notion that he's alive and the "reason" he doesn't show himself is that he doesn't want to show what he looks like now...because he looks so much different. Nah, that is hollywood. People were all saying the same thing about Saddam (that he changed the way he looked)...Nope, he look exactly like Saddam when we pulled him out....it was very easy for anyone to recognize him....

I tend to agree with the thought, that if Bin Laden was alive he would have put out at least one definite video as proof.

Nothing elaborate, but something definite with him speaking and discussing something current (say post Jan 2002). I think the last video put out (like 2 months ago) with him and his #2 guy Al Zaywairi (spelling I know). In that video that was said to be "current" it only showed Bin Laden and his #2 walking with no audio. This was a big red flag.

Because if they went through all the trouble and operational security to finally put out a video "proving" himself alive....they would have surly had him talk...yet, it was voiced over. Proving that it wasn't "current" because they didn't want the actual audio of the video to be heard.

But we do know that by releasing that video, that Bin Laden (or more likely it is seeming Al Qeada posing as Bin Laden) did want to get the video out to try and "prove" Bin Ladne is alive. So then this gets one thinking, if Bin Laden really wanted to prove he was alive, and went through the trouble of making a video, he would have surly put his voice on it, showing himself talking. But this wasn't done.

Now, I also like Monsoor (from Fox News)...he does seem to know what he is talking about, but I also believe he has to put out (false or half truth) information every so often...just in order to keep his sources "clean"...if he was always putting out concrete intel....this would be a tip off to those above his "sources"...So I believe he puts out false or half truth info every so often....His thoughts on Bin Laden being some of that....Just a gut feeling there. Obvioulsy I could be wrong on that.

Conclusion, If I had to take a percentage on it. 75% Bin Laden has been dead since Nov / Dec 2001.

If he is not dead, I'd say we get him before Sept of this year. If he is alive, I also say he is in the mountains of Pakistan....not in Iran.

[No Blue States]

I am one who thought saddam was dead, simply because he didnt seem to prove otherwise.

In light of saddam being alive, ive moved to the undecided/but leaning dead on obl.

[Angelus Errare]

More to the point, if the US did think that he was dead we would have been told, our boys certainly weren't shy about saying when they thought they had Saddam Hussein on either the first night of the bombing or when we hit that restaurant in the al-Mansoor district of Baghdad. Chemical Ali was dead for awhile too, IIRC.

Another thing to keep in mind is that providing concrete proof of his continued existence via videotape would, as others have said, give away any changes he's made to his face over the last two years. It might well also compromise his security if he is indeed in Iran as two separate accounts have claimed over the several weeks - if we learn something from one of those tapes that positively IDs him as being there, he's lost another safe haven and the ayatollahs have probably lost a country.

Ultimately, every argument as to why bin Laden hasn't shown us a videotape yet can also be applied to Saddam Hussein. But unless that's a body double or an android that the 4th ID pulled out of that spider hole, it sure looks to me like he's alive.

[RightWhale]

So many hear said "He's dead Jim" anytime an article about Saddam came out.

Not so. A few have been saying OBL is dead for two years now, but no one has asserted that Saddam had died.

[Alouette]

[tsomer]

If I had to take a percentage on it. 75% Bin Laden has been dead since Nov / Dec 2001.

I don't know much about audio, but I do know that compositing software for digital video can be gotten at a cost well within the means of your average Saudi bankrolled Islam-o-nazi. When they say it's the voice of Osama, I've noticed they don't mention whether or not its the spoken voice, or a montage cobled from prior recordings.

That's my suspicion.

[Tricorn]

"For some unknown reason they feel the OBL needs to be dead in order to gain some political advantage."

Politically it is much better for this slug to be perceived as alive. Since 2001, AQ's greatest achievement has been to blow up a nightclub in Bali. As one astute Freeper put it then, "missed by 12,000 miles."

UBL's "authenticated" audiotapes means they've been huffing and puffing for going on 3 years now with absolutely no positive results and nothing but mounting losses and defeats to show for it and their fearless leader, the one who is supposed to inspire them to suicide, afraid to show his face, altered or otherwise. Not exactly a parade I'd be willing to join.

A dead OBL would bring the handwringers out to end the war in droves (remember their reaction to the Highway of Death during Gulf War I?). But it's not in the true American character to leave wars half-won. And Bush is a true American.

[polemikos]

I saw an initial report that suggested the references to Saddam were by a speaker in the "background" of the tape, not necessarily OBL. Any follow up to that?

[Arkinsaw]

but no one has asserted that Saddam had died.

LOL, you must have missed post #62. Your statement is BS because you can find people saying that "Saddam is dead" by looking at historical threads.

[cyncooper]

Saddam didn't change HIS appearance.

Yes, he did.

I said lots of bluff and bluster and no results makes them seem ridiculous. And it does.

It looks like the only reason there have been no results is due to extraordinary measures taken by our Homeland Security, who do not consider the plots afoot to be mere "bluff and bluster" but actual threats being attempted under orders from bin Laden. His followers are not finding him ridiculous.

The point is, whether or not the audiotape is "authentic" or not is up to us, not them. If it served our purposes to say it is not authentic, we would do so. It's up to us, you see. Why would they leave that ball in our hands if they didn't have to? The fact is there is zero evidence that UBL is alive. All the "evidence" comes from our side, not theirs.

That doesn't make sense. We didn't create the tape and then present it with spin. You have produced no evidence that he's alive. The tape is evidence that he is. Plain and simple.

[Arkinsaw]

I am one who thought saddam was dead, simply because he didnt seem to prove otherwise. In light of saddam being alive, ive moved to the undecided/but leaning dead on obl.

Most people decide on the evidence presently available to them like you. But some folks say that all the bad guys are dead regardless of evidence because they want so bad for it to be true.

[RightWhale]

Your statement is BS because you can find people saying that "Saddam is dead"

No, those weren't real people. They were trolls and spies from DU.

[Arkinsaw]

No, those weren't real people. They were trolls and spies from DU.

Oh please, you are saying that anybody who stated that Saddam was dead were trolls from DU? Why in the world would trolls from DU want to say that Saddam and OBL were dead? This is a joke right?

[End Times Sentinel]

Yeah, well, whatever...

 

The U.S. doesn't have anything to gain by disputing the validity of the tape and has rather a large amount of credibility at stake if it turns out to be legit.

 

Personally, I'll believe it when I see him on good quality video tape holding a recent, cave delivered issue of the New York Times.

Owl_Eagle

”Guns Before Butter.”

[Smogger]

Hmmm...

So your conclusion is that Ayman al-Zawahri is dead also because he hasn't released a videotape either?

By that same token I'm probably dead as well. Because I haven't released a videotape as well.

More to the point. What purpose does releasing a videotape serve for Al Qaida aside from revealing what Bin Laden looks like, his health, and possible location to the CIA?

[Smogger]

More OBL is a alive because Bush wants him alive conspiracy theory eh? Hmmm.. You better adjust your tinfoil. Your starting to sound like that Congressman from Washington.

[finnman69]

In retrospect the nebulous writings of Nostradamus were open to all kinds of potential interpretation. This allows for him to have predicted anything.

[RightWhale]

Hegel would be annoyed. Epicurus even more so. Furnish a complete list of those who stated that Saddam was dead. We'll see if anyone is on the list.

[No Blue States]

I think we all want him very much dead, no need to argue over whether or not we have killed him yet imo.

Its mostly speculation on either side anyway.

[the Real fifi]

There is an article in today's Washington Times which indicates we twice said SH was dead because the CIA had been fed false info from its agent on the ground---the guy who told us SH was in the bunker under the palace we hit the first night.(Immediately after, SH released fairly current tapes to prove otherwise.)

In this case, I have no idea what we know. It stands to reason his supporters would do everything they could to hide his death, if it occurred.

It has been a long time since there was released a picture of him, he was reportedly ill while in Tora Bora, the last shot of him didn't reveal a healthy studmuffin. OTOH we would not want to say he was dead only to have him pop up again.

Still, it would be in his interest to do a video, something well within the technological capabilities of the guy and he hasn't...I assume the references on this tape to make it seem current may well have been done by splicing and mixing old stuff, and , while I certainly can't prove it, my hunch is this:He is dead.