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Smogger, I'm not buying the whole notion that he's alive and the "reason" he doesn't show himself is that he doesn't want to show what he looks like now...because he looks so much different. Nah, that is hollywood. People were all saying the same thing about Saddam (that he changed the way he looked)...Nope, he look exactly like Saddam when we pulled him out....it was very easy for anyone to recognize him....

I tend to agree with the thought, that if Bin Laden was alive he would have put out at least one definite video as proof.

Nothing elaborate, but something definite with him speaking and discussing something current (say post Jan 2002). I think the last video put out (like 2 months ago) with him and his #2 guy Al Zaywairi (spelling I know). In that video that was said to be "current" it only showed Bin Laden and his #2 walking with no audio. This was a big red flag.

Because if they went through all the trouble and operational security to finally put out a video "proving" himself alive....they would have surly had him talk...yet, it was voiced over. Proving that it wasn't "current" because they didn't want the actual audio of the video to be heard.

But we do know that by releasing that video, that Bin Laden (or more likely it is seeming Al Qeada posing as Bin Laden) did want to get the video out to try and "prove" Bin Ladne is alive. So then this gets one thinking, if Bin Laden really wanted to prove he was alive, and went through the trouble of making a video, he would have surly put his voice on it, showing himself talking. But this wasn't done.

Now, I also like Monsoor (from Fox News)...he does seem to know what he is talking about, but I also believe he has to put out (false or half truth) information every so often...just in order to keep his sources "clean"...if he was always putting out concrete intel....this would be a tip off to those above his "sources"...So I believe he puts out false or half truth info every so often....His thoughts on Bin Laden being some of that....Just a gut feeling there. Obvioulsy I could be wrong on that.

Conclusion, If I had to take a percentage on it. 75% Bin Laden has been dead since Nov / Dec 2001.

If he is not dead, I'd say we get him before Sept of this year. If he is alive, I also say he is in the mountains of Pakistan....not in Iran.

If I had to take a percentage on it. 75% Bin Laden has been dead since Nov / Dec 2001.

I don't know much about audio, but I do know that compositing software for digital video can be gotten at a cost well within the means of your average Saudi bankrolled Islam-o-nazi. When they say it's the voice of Osama, I've noticed they don't mention whether or not its the spoken voice, or a montage cobled from prior recordings.

That's my suspicion.

Hmmm...

So your conclusion is that Ayman al-Zawahri is dead also because he hasn't released a videotape either?

By that same token I'm probably dead as well. Because I haven't released a videotape as well.

More to the point. What purpose does releasing a videotape serve for Al Qaida aside from revealing what Bin Laden looks like, his health, and possible location to the CIA?