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Purported Bin Laden Tape Likely Authentic
WINS NEWS ^
| 1/5/03
Posted on 01/05/2004 7:42:27 AM PST by areafiftyone
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To: Smogger
Smogger, I'm not buying the whole notion that he's alive and the "reason" he doesn't show himself is that he doesn't want to show what he looks like now...because he looks so much different. Nah, that is hollywood. People were all saying the same thing about Saddam (that he changed the way he looked)...Nope, he look exactly like Saddam when we pulled him out....it was very easy for anyone to recognize him....
I tend to agree with the thought, that if Bin Laden was alive he would have put out at least one definite video as proof.
Nothing elaborate, but something definite with him speaking and discussing something current (say post Jan 2002). I think the last video put out (like 2 months ago) with him and his #2 guy Al Zaywairi (spelling I know). In that video that was said to be "current" it only showed Bin Laden and his #2 walking with no audio. This was a big red flag.
Because if they went through all the trouble and operational security to finally put out a video "proving" himself alive....they would have surly had him talk...yet, it was voiced over. Proving that it wasn't "current" because they didn't want the actual audio of the video to be heard.
But we do know that by releasing that video, that Bin Laden (or more likely it is seeming Al Qeada posing as Bin Laden) did want to get the video out to try and "prove" Bin Ladne is alive. So then this gets one thinking, if Bin Laden really wanted to prove he was alive, and went through the trouble of making a video, he would have surly put his voice on it, showing himself talking. But this wasn't done.
Now, I also like Monsoor (from Fox News)...he does seem to know what he is talking about, but I also believe he has to put out (false or half truth) information every so often...just in order to keep his sources "clean"...if he was always putting out concrete intel....this would be a tip off to those above his "sources"...So I believe he puts out false or half truth info every so often....His thoughts on Bin Laden being some of that....Just a gut feeling there. Obvioulsy I could be wrong on that.
Conclusion, If I had to take a percentage on it. 75% Bin Laden has been dead since Nov / Dec 2001.
If he is not dead, I'd say we get him before Sept of this year. If he is alive, I also say he is in the mountains of Pakistan....not in Iran.
61
posted on
01/05/2004 9:27:34 AM PST
by
eseales
To: Arkinsaw
I am one who thought saddam was dead, simply because he didnt seem to prove otherwise.
In light of saddam being alive, ive moved to the undecided/but leaning dead on obl.
To: cyncooper; Smogger
More to the point, if the US did think that he was dead we would have been told, our boys certainly weren't shy about saying when they thought they had Saddam Hussein on either the first night of the bombing or when we hit that restaurant in the al-Mansoor district of Baghdad. Chemical Ali was dead for awhile too, IIRC.
Another thing to keep in mind is that providing concrete proof of his continued existence via videotape would, as others have said, give away any changes he's made to his face over the last two years. It might well also compromise his security if he is indeed in Iran as two separate accounts have claimed over the several weeks - if we learn something from one of those tapes that positively IDs him as being there, he's lost another safe haven and the ayatollahs have probably lost a country.
Ultimately, every argument as to why bin Laden hasn't shown us a videotape yet can also be applied to Saddam Hussein. But unless that's a body double or an android that the 4th ID pulled out of that spider hole, it sure looks to me like he's alive.
To: Arkinsaw
So many hear said "He's dead Jim" anytime an article about Saddam came out. Not so. A few have been saying OBL is dead for two years now, but no one has asserted that Saddam had died.
64
posted on
01/05/2004 9:31:31 AM PST
by
RightWhale
(Repeal the Law of the Excluded Middle)
To: areafiftyone
65
posted on
01/05/2004 9:37:57 AM PST
by
Alouette
(Proud parent of an IDF recruit!)
To: eseales
If I had to take a percentage on it. 75% Bin Laden has been dead since Nov / Dec 2001. I don't know much about audio, but I do know that compositing software for digital video can be gotten at a cost well within the means of your average Saudi bankrolled Islam-o-nazi. When they say it's the voice of Osama, I've noticed they don't mention whether or not its the spoken voice, or a montage cobled from prior recordings.
That's my suspicion.
66
posted on
01/05/2004 9:39:56 AM PST
by
tsomer
To: Smogger
"For some unknown reason they feel the OBL needs to be dead in order to gain some political advantage."
Politically it is much better for this slug to be perceived as alive. Since 2001, AQ's greatest achievement has been to blow up a nightclub in Bali. As one astute Freeper put it then, "missed by 12,000 miles."
UBL's "authenticated" audiotapes means they've been huffing and puffing for going on 3 years now with absolutely no positive results and nothing but mounting losses and defeats to show for it and their fearless leader, the one who is supposed to inspire them to suicide, afraid to show his face, altered or otherwise. Not exactly a parade I'd be willing to join.
A dead OBL would bring the handwringers out to end the war in droves (remember their reaction to the Highway of Death during Gulf War I?). But it's not in the true American character to leave wars half-won. And Bush is a true American.
67
posted on
01/05/2004 9:41:43 AM PST
by
Tricorn
To: All
I saw an initial report that suggested the references to Saddam were by a speaker in the "background" of the tape, not necessarily OBL. Any follow up to that?
68
posted on
01/05/2004 9:46:48 AM PST
by
polemikos
(Islamic terrorists want to put Western Liberalism to death. Shall we let them?)
To: RightWhale
but no one has asserted that Saddam had died.
LOL, you must have missed post #62. Your statement is BS because you can find people saying that "Saddam is dead" by looking at historical threads.
69
posted on
01/05/2004 9:47:35 AM PST
by
Arkinsaw
To: Tricorn
Saddam didn't change HIS appearance. Yes, he did.
I said lots of bluff and bluster and no results makes them seem ridiculous. And it does.
It looks like the only reason there have been no results is due to extraordinary measures taken by our Homeland Security, who do not consider the plots afoot to be mere "bluff and bluster" but actual threats being attempted under orders from bin Laden. His followers are not finding him ridiculous.
The point is, whether or not the audiotape is "authentic" or not is up to us, not them. If it served our purposes to say it is not authentic, we would do so. It's up to us, you see. Why would they leave that ball in our hands if they didn't have to? The fact is there is zero evidence that UBL is alive. All the "evidence" comes from our side, not theirs.
That doesn't make sense. We didn't create the tape and then present it with spin. You have produced no evidence that he's alive. The tape is evidence that he is. Plain and simple.
70
posted on
01/05/2004 9:48:40 AM PST
by
cyncooper
("The evil is in plain sight")
To: No Blue States
I am one who thought saddam was dead, simply because he didnt seem to prove otherwise. In light of saddam being alive, ive moved to the undecided/but leaning dead on obl.
Most people decide on the evidence presently available to them like you. But some folks say that all the bad guys are dead regardless of evidence because they want so bad for it to be true.
71
posted on
01/05/2004 9:49:46 AM PST
by
Arkinsaw
To: Arkinsaw
Your statement is BS because you can find people saying that "Saddam is dead" No, those weren't real people. They were trolls and spies from DU.
72
posted on
01/05/2004 9:50:05 AM PST
by
RightWhale
(Repeal the Law of the Excluded Middle)
To: RightWhale
No, those weren't real people. They were trolls and spies from DU.
Oh please, you are saying that anybody who stated that Saddam was dead were trolls from DU? Why in the world would trolls from DU want to say that Saddam and OBL were dead? This is a joke right?
73
posted on
01/05/2004 9:52:11 AM PST
by
Arkinsaw
To: areafiftyone
Yeah, well, whatever...
The U.S. doesn't have anything to gain by disputing the validity of the tape and has rather a large amount of credibility at stake if it turns out to be legit.
Personally, I'll believe it when I see him on good quality video tape holding a recent, cave delivered issue of the New York Times.
Owl_Eagle
Guns Before Butter.
74
posted on
01/05/2004 9:53:12 AM PST
by
End Times Sentinel
("Fire can be our servant, whether it's toasting S'mores or raining down on Charlie" –Ppl Skinner)
To: eseales
Hmmm...
So your conclusion is that Ayman al-Zawahri is dead also because he hasn't released a videotape either?
By that same token I'm probably dead as well. Because I haven't released a videotape as well.
More to the point. What purpose does releasing a videotape serve for Al Qaida aside from revealing what Bin Laden looks like, his health, and possible location to the CIA?
75
posted on
01/05/2004 9:54:33 AM PST
by
Smogger
To: Tricorn
More OBL is a alive because Bush wants him alive conspiracy theory eh? Hmmm.. You better adjust your tinfoil. Your starting to sound like that Congressman from Washington.
76
posted on
01/05/2004 9:55:59 AM PST
by
Smogger
To: cpdiii
In retrospect the nebulous writings of Nostradamus were open to all kinds of potential interpretation. This allows for him to have predicted anything.
77
posted on
01/05/2004 9:56:19 AM PST
by
finnman69
(cum puella incedit minore medio corpore sub quo manifestus globus, inflammare animos)
To: Arkinsaw
Hegel would be annoyed. Epicurus even more so. Furnish a complete list of those who stated that Saddam was dead. We'll see if anyone is on the list.
78
posted on
01/05/2004 9:58:38 AM PST
by
RightWhale
(Repeal the Law of the Excluded Middle)
To: Arkinsaw
I think we all want him very much dead, no need to argue over whether or not we have killed him yet imo.
Its mostly speculation on either side anyway.
To: Smogger
There is an article in today's Washington Times which indicates we twice said SH was dead because the CIA had been fed false info from its agent on the ground---the guy who told us SH was in the bunker under the palace we hit the first night.(Immediately after, SH released fairly current tapes to prove otherwise.)
In this case, I have no idea what we know. It stands to reason his supporters would do everything they could to hide his death, if it occurred.
It has been a long time since there was released a picture of him, he was reportedly ill while in Tora Bora, the last shot of him didn't reveal a healthy studmuffin. OTOH we would not want to say he was dead only to have him pop up again.
Still, it would be in his interest to do a video, something well within the technological capabilities of the guy and he hasn't...I assume the references on this tape to make it seem current may well have been done by splicing and mixing old stuff, and , while I certainly can't prove it, my hunch is this:He is dead.
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