Purported Bin Laden Tape Likely Authentic

WINS NEWS ^ | 1/5/03

[areafiftyone]

CAIRO, Egypt (AP) -- A speaker who was purportedly Osama bin Laden said on an audiotape that the U.S.-led war in Iraq was the beginning of the "occupation" of Gulf states for their oil and called on Muslims to keep fighting a holy war in the Middle East. The tape is likely authentic, U.S. officials said Monday.

The voice on the audiotape, which was broadcast Sunday on the Al-Jazeera satellite channel, referred to recent events - including the Dec. 13 capture of former Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein and peace initiatives between Israel and the Palestinians.

The speaker urged Muslims to "continue the jihad to check the conspiracies that are hatched against the Islamic nation."

A CIA official speaking on condition of anonymity said that a technical analysis determined that the tape was likely an authentic audio message from bin Laden, the leader of the al-Qaida terror network.

On CBS's "The Early Show," Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge also said that "preliminary assessments says this is the voice of Osama bin Laden."

Al-Jazeera played the audiotape while showing a still photo of bin Laden against a dark blue background.

"My message is to incite you against the conspiracies, especially those uncovered by the occupation of the crusaders in Baghdad under the pretext of weapons of mass destruction, and also the situation in (Jerusalem) under the deceptions of the road map and the Geneva initiative," the speaker said.

A Mideast peace plan dubbed the Geneva Accord was launched Dec. 1 by Israeli and Palestinian negotiators. The phrase "road map" refers to a U.S.-backed plan for a Palestinian state by 2005.

Ibrahim Hilal, Al-Jazeera's editor-in-chief, told The Associated Press the network received the message Sunday. However, he declined to reveal how it was delivered.

Hilal said he was certain the voice on the tape was bin Laden's.

"It is bin Laden's superb and special Arabic language that is very hard to emulate," Hilal said. "It is undoubtedly his voice, his style, and the typical examples from history he uses."

The original message was 47 minutes long but the network aired only 14 minutes, Hilal said.

In those excerpts, the speaker urged Muslims to "liberate the Islamic world from the military occupation of the Crusaders."

He said Gulf countries have given in to U.S. pressures "thinking that would not open the door for toppling of the dictatorial regimes by military force from outside, especially after they saw the capture of their previous comrade in treachery, a hireling of America," referring to Saddam.

The speaker criticized leaders of Muslim nations for refusing to pressure the United States on the Palestinian issue and for not supporting the Palestinian resistance.

He also criticized Gulf countries for receiving members of the U.S.-appointed interim Iraqi Governing Council.

He said the "big powers" were trying to control the region for its oil.

"The occupation of Iraq is the beginning of the full occupation of the other Gulf states. ... The Gulf is the key for control of the world in the point of view of the big powers because of the presence of the biggest deposits of oil."

British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw said Monday in London that he had no confirmation that the voice on the tape was bin Laden's but that it was a safe assumption.

"There is no question that the al-Qaida organization and its networks are still around. And so far as we know, Osama bin Laden is still alive," Straw told British Broadcasting Corp. radio.

Al-Jazeera last broadcast an audiotape purportedly from bin Laden in October. CIA analysts examining that tape concluded it probably was authentic.

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[Smogger]

What? Just do a search for Saddam Dead and Saddam Killed there are hundreds of posts by Freepers claiming he's dead just like now.

[Arkinsaw]

You exaggerated.

I searched for 5 minutes for Saddam threads and found those with comments stating that Saddam was dead. If you are suggesting that these are the only examples of "Saddam is dead" on FreeRepublic you are mistaken.

[Smogger]

Here is a great thread of some Freepers making fools out of themselves claiming that Saddam must be dead because he released.... You guessed it. An audio tape.

TAPE: 'SADDAM IS ALIVE'

It's practically a mirror image of this thread. eerie.

[Arkinsaw]

Here are the results of another 5 minute search if you feel like checking them out. Let me know if you need more.

Nice cartoon of Saddam dead
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1023483/posts

Weekend at Bernie's reference and 6 feet of dirt
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1022835/posts

Elvis and Osama/Diggin Saddam Up/He's Dead Jim!/phony tapes
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1022835/posts

Where is the videotape?
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/984090/posts

Saddam died several months before the coalition strike started
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/954772/posts

I think Saddam and OBL are dust/Elvis and Buddy Holly/Saddam has been dead, is now dead, and may continue to be dead for the forseeable future. Ditto for Usama./Saddam died on the opening night of the festivities/
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/940437/posts

I've always said, and still believe, he's 6 feet under... Actually far below that!
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/940430/posts

He's toast. I don't believe it for a second./Me neither/He's Dead Jim!/
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/904726/posts

[Arkinsaw]

It's practically a mirror image of this thread. eerie.

During the 2000 election I learned not to trust the spin. I was accused of being a hand-wringer or disruptor for being nervous about the Zogby polls. "Special Sauce!", "Special Sauce!" on every Zogby thread when in reality we should have been paying attention and out fighting for votes instead of just imagining what we wanted to believe.

Nobody knows if Osama is alive or dead and anybody who makes fun of someone for thinking he might be alive is just a fool.

[Wolfstar]

Even if he is not literally worm food, one can be metaphorically dead. If one is forced to hide in remote regions while being protected by 12th Century human relics, and/or if one is forced to hide in small holes in the ground, that is a form of death comparable to being shut away in a Medieval prison.

On the other than, since 9/11 a release of bin Laden tape has preceded a terrorist attack by only a few weeks. The attempts on Musharraf, the big spike in jihadists "chatter," and now the tape certainly suggest that a large attack somewhere may be imminent.

[Arkinsaw]

Even if he is not literally worm food, one can be metaphorically dead.

True. But Osama doesn't give a flip if we think he is alive or not. All he cares about is that his followers think he is alive. His followers WANT to believe he is alive just as much as some of us WANT to believe he is dead. They don't take much convincing and an audio tape is fine. In fact a forged note would probably be good enough for them.

[Wolfstar]

Too much wishful thinking goes on round here sometimes.

Agreed. In fact, I see too much complacency and over-confidence on FR about this year's upcoming election. It ain't over 'til it's over.

[Smogger]

Agreed. In fact, I see too much complacency and over-confidence on FR about this year's upcoming election. It ain't over 'til it's over.

I agree. And I disagree that Dean is the weakest candidate. He's NOT the weakest candidate which is why he running over the other weaker candidates now. This will be ANOTHER tough fought election.

[Arkinsaw]

It ain't over 'til it's over.

You can't just assume that any Demo candidate is a sure victim. We thought that about Gore. I mean seriously....how many people thought so many Americans would vote for Gore?

Even if its Dean we can't assume an easy win. If its Clark we can't assume that the rest of the people view him like we do.

[mjaneangels@aolcom]

"In desperation, AQ is forced into the corner of showing that UBL is dead (and making a martyr of him) or showing that he's alive with audiotapes. They have determined that the latter is best for them. So have we, apparently, since it is our side that provides the authentication. We could easily do otherwise."

AQ is not in desperation to prove anything about UBL. If he is dead, they do not want that out because it would be even harder to get money and more suicide bombers. If he is alive they do not want to verify that to those who are hunting for UBL. The only thing in AQ's interest is to prove nothing at all, hence we get half-measures of audio only tapes that tell no one anything, but put doubt in the minds of those wanting proof.

[mjaneangels@aolcom]

"Smogger, No, I believe Al-Zawahri is alive. I never said he was dead, somewhat of a straw-mans argument used by you there. (there seems to have been more sightings, montly audio's, etc) of him. But, it is Bin Laden those in Al Qeada want the world to believe is still alive. I just feel, so much as been lost for Bin Laden that he would have surly made at least on definite audio tape or better yet video to prove he is alive for his followers.
Lets be clear. Bin Laden never thought the USA would take Afghanistan as easily as we did. He never thought we would have such influence in Pakistan as we do now. He never thought we would control Iraq as we do now. Therefore these have been great defeats for him. One wouldn't sit back and just allow this without at least once in 3 years proving he is still in the fight. I totally agree that him being dead or alive hasn't been proven one way or the other.

And this is why Bush and Rummy have said. "if he's alive, we will get him".....enough said. But that does not then disallow others to suspect that Bin Laden is already dead...because of the lack of evidence he is alive and the lack of a coordinated defensive or offensive put out by Al Qeada since Dec of 2001.

As for Bin Laden changing his appearance...until one of these bad guys around the world is taken alive and shown to have a dramatic change of appearance I think that is all hollywood BS clouding peoples minds. His appearance won't have change much even if he is alive.

As for your comment that you haven't put out a video so you must be dead. (childish argument at best with that. No need to respond)"

So you are saying that the most wanted man on the face of the planet would want to put out a video and remind all of those who are after him that he is still alive and has not been captured? If you were the most wanted person on Earth would you put out a video?

[skr]

What's the point in announcing to the world that it's likely to be Bin Laden when it's not a sure thing? Why not a less positive statement, as in we can't be certain? Why give the bad guys even a miniscule of comfort or inspiration?

[DarthMaulrulesok]

Perhaps it would be useful to focus on what the tape says, never mind for the moment who recorded it. There are references to fighting crusaders in Iraq, that there needs to be more Jihad to "liberate the Islamic world from the crusaders" and the Arab states are traitors and not doing enough. ("...capture of their previous comrade in treachery"). It sounds, at a minimum, like al-qaida is on the defensive. And, why is there no direct reference (so far as I can tell) to the US? Bin-Laden (or whoever) seems more irritated at his brother muslims.

It sounds like his focus (this time) is on Iraq and Israel, two areas where a "flypaper strategy" of enticing and eliminating terrorists can work. Why not tell his followers to wage Jihad worldwide? Or start homicide bombings in the US? Surely, if say, 50 homicide bombers struck 50 shopping malls more or less at the same time, that would generate the fear al-qaida wants. (For a short time, anyway, then the revenge/retaliation would begin, but that is another topic altogether).

My point is, al-qaida in this tape sound very much on the strategic defensive with local goals rather than the previous one of creating the world wide caliphate. Why?

[#3Fan]

What? Just do a search for Saddam Dead and Saddam Killed there are hundreds of posts by Freepers claiming he's dead just like now.

I saw a few posts on a few threads. Not hundreds after the end of heavy operations. You guys are exaggerating.

[#3Fan]

I searched for 5 minutes for Saddam threads and found those with comments stating that Saddam was dead. If you are suggesting that these are the only examples of "Saddam is dead" on FreeRepublic you are mistaken.

I'm sure they're not, but it's funny that you couldn't come up with a large thread with a lot of people claiming he was dead after heavy operations. You guys are exaggerating.

[#3Fan]

Not a large thread but your best example. Since there were only 42 posts, I still wouldn't say there was a large movement here to claim he was dead.

[#3Fan]

All of those were tiny threads with only a couple of people per thread claiming he was dead. That's not very many on a site with tens of thousands of members. Blink and you would've missed them. You exaggerated about the number of freepers claiming his was dead. It wasn't very many at all.

[#3Fan]

During the 2000 election I learned not to trust the spin. I was accused of being a hand-wringer or disruptor for being nervous about the Zogby polls. "Special Sauce!", "Special Sauce!" on every Zogby thread when in reality we should have been paying attention and out fighting for votes instead of just imagining what we wanted to believe.

How can you fight for dead votes? That is Zogby's special sauce and why he makes adjustments on the very last day.